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Saved by @CodyyyGardner

It's Friday afternoon, it's dark outside and school is over for the week. Let me tell you some truths about markets in 2021

 The consensus view this year is all pervasive. Everything I see and read is based upon it. Parts of it may eventually come true, but it's not going to be sunshine and rainbows
To summarise, the mechanical recovery taking place will become self-sustaining as vaccines and "pent-up demand" combine to lead to an orgy of consumerism
Of course this is a very American fantasy because elsewhere, no one expects anything of the sort to happen, not least Europe or Japan, where we'll continue to be frugal
To add to this we have the Fed "backstopping" the market and a new Democratic administration stuffing cash into the hands of people who already have money
This will lead to a varied combination of higher Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and strong stock markets, the latter of which I presume mean we should buy EM and go to the beach
My reflex is to rebel against such consensus, which I feel is wrong from an economic, cyclical and market perspective
Firstly, I am not an economist but even I find it hard to believe that people aren't concerned about the massive fiscal contraction in 2021
Regardless of how many dollars are spent by the new administration, even getting close to last year's performance is going to be tough
Furthermore, the whole "pent-up" buzzword is IMO bollocks. You're all working from home. There's your 2020 investment. That's a lot of holidays/orgies/etc
As for higher inflation, well, there are still a hell of a lot of people out of work, and there is normally a big lag between slack and inflation, so let's see
Onto the cycle. Well, March 2020 ended the last one, and most people seem to think we've embarked on the next
That's not right. We've just had the longest expansion in a century. There will be a massive hangover. Just wait. It'll happen
Secondly, in economic recoveries, everything seems like a massive hazard. We're glad to get through the day/week/month unscathed. Now it's all sunlit uplands
2003 and 2009 weren't times of unconfined joy. Everything was shit. It just happens that they coincide with the bottom of the stock market charts
This is either the easiest recovery ever, or it isn't a recovery at all
And this leads on to markets. According to consensus the new cycle has begun with asset prices at boom era highs. No
Stock valuations are very high. Just because xyz stock is not as rich as tesla doesn't mean that xyz is cheap. The floor has moved and all shit floats to the surface
Also, as much as the Fed aren't buying stocks, they also aren't guaranteeing a floor to the stock market. As we discovered, and have now forgotten, March 2020 happened with Fed trying to stop it
As for the dollar, the argument that the Fed's printing means it must depreciate is just plain wrong. ECB and BoJ are printing too
Surely the dollar view most in line with consensus is that US outperformance means dollar outperformance along with the fantasy of Fed tightening
Anyhow I've talked enough. I am not short. Like with crypto, when valuation becomes unimportant, price can be anything. The best thing to do right now is to reduce risk
Anyone who tells you to be long either has no idea what they are talking about or should know better
When this market finally goes down, from whatever level, March 2020 will be a picnic in comparison

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el gato malo
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global health policy in 2020 has centered around NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) like distancing, masks, school closures

these have been sold as a way to stop infection as though this were science.

this was never true and that fact was known and knowable.

let's look.


above is the plot of social restriction and NPI vs total death per million. there is 0 R2. this means that the variables play no role in explaining one another.

we can see this same relationship between NPI and all cause deaths.

this is devastating to the case for NPI.


clearly, correlation is not proof of causality, but a total lack of correlation IS proof that there was no material causality.

barring massive and implausible coincidence, it's essentially impossible to cause something and not correlate to it, especially 51 times.

this would seem to pose some very serious questions for those claiming that lockdowns work, those basing policy upon them, and those claiming this is the side of science.

there is no science here nor any data. this is the febrile imaginings of discredited modelers.

this has been clear and obvious from all over the world since the beginning and had been proven so clearly by may that it's hard to imagine anyone who is actually conversant with the data still believing in these responses.

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This is a piece I've been thinking about for a long time. One of the most dominant policy ideas in Washington is that policy should, always and everywhere, move parents into paid labor. But what if that's wrong?

My reporting here convinced me that there's no large effect in either direction on labor force participation from child allowances. Canada has a bigger one than either Romney or Biden are considering, and more labor force participation among women.

But what if that wasn't true?

Forcing parents into low-wage, often exploitative, jobs by threatening them and their children with poverty may be counted as a success by some policymakers, but it’s a sign of a society that doesn’t value the most essential forms of labor.

The problem is in the very language we use. If I left my job as a New York Times columnist to care for my 2-year-old son, I’d be described as leaving the labor force. But as much as I adore him, there is no doubt I’d be working harder. I wouldn't have stopped working!

I tried to render conservative objections here fairly. I appreciate that @swinshi talked with me, and I'm sorry I couldn't include everything he said. I'll say I believe I used his strongest arguments, not more speculative ones, in the piece.
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Rob Ford
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Two things can be true at once:
1. There is an issue with hostility some academics have faced on some issues
2. Another academic who himself uses threats of legal action to bully colleagues into silence is not a good faith champion of the free speech cause


I have kept quiet about Matthew's recent outpourings on here but as my estwhile co-author has now seen fit to portray me as an enabler of oppression I think I have a right to reply. So I will.

I consider Matthew to be a colleague and a friend, and we had a longstanding agreement not to engage in disputes on twitter. I disagree with much in the article @UOzkirimli wrote on his research in @openDemocracy but I strongly support his right to express such critical views

I therefore find it outrageous that Matthew saw fit to bully @openDemocracy with legal threats, seeking it seems to stifle criticism of his own work. Such behaviour is simply wrong, and completely inconsistent with an academic commitment to free speech.

I am not embroiling myself in the various other cases Matt lists because, unlike him, I think attention to the detail matters and I don't have time to research each of these cases in detail.
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The Sentinelese are often described as “uncontacted,” but this not strictly true. They had a very significant contact in 1880 with Commander Portman.

Portman, the black sheep third son of some minor noble, was assigned by the English Royal Navy to administer and pacify the Andaman Islands, a job he pursued from 1880-1900 with the full measure of his own perversity.


Portman was erotically obsessed with the Andamanese, and he indulged his passion for photography by kidnapping members of various tribes and posing them in mock-Greek homoerotic compositions.


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