🧵 We're riding shotgun tonight. Here's a little thread on remote leadership with your's truly Ernst Fehr (@econ_uzh), @raffasadun and @Gerhard_Fehr. https://t.co/FcO1CFyRZk
What does good leadership look like when everyone works from home?\u2013Top scientists @raffasadun and Ernst Fehr will provide you with some answers on 27 January \u2013 online and for free in our Academy of Behavioral Economics https://t.co/Di6hRqPvAA
— G. Duttweiler Inst' (@GDInstitute) January 15, 2021
Ernst Fehr @econ_uzh #EconomicsForSociety
Ernst Fehr @econ_uzh #EconomicsForSociety
Ernst Fehr @econ_uzh #EconomicsForSociety
Ernst Fehr @econ_uzh #EconomicsForSociety
Ernst Fehr @econ_uzh #EconomicsForSociety
Ernst Fehr @econ_uzh #EconomicsForSociety
1. Think systematically
2. Set up a learning process
3. Structured delegation
@raffasadun @HarvardHBS
@Gerhard_Fehr @FehrAdvice
@Gerhard_Fehr @FehrAdvice
@Gerhard_Fehr @FehrAdvice
@Gerhard_Fehr @FehrAdvice
Ernst Fehr @econ_uzh
More from Society
I've seen many news articles cite that "the UK variant could be the dominant strain by March". This is emphasized by @CDCDirector.
While this will likely to be the case, this should not be an automatic cause for concern. Cases could still remain contained.
Here's how: 🧵
One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.
Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But interestingly... there's no fourth wave. Cases simply level out:
https://t.co/tDce0MwO61
Just because a variant becomes the dominant strain does not automatically mean we will see a repeat of Fall 2020.
Let's look at UK and South Africa, where cases have been falling for the past month, in unison with the US (albeit with tougher restrictions):
Furthermore, the claim that the "variant is doubling every 10 days" is false. It's the *proportion of the variant* that is doubling every 10 days.
If overall prevalence drops during the studied time period, the true doubling time of the variant is actually much longer 10 days.
Simple example:
Day 0: 10 variant / 100 cases -> 10% variant
Day 10: 15 variant / 75 cases -> 20% variant
Day 20: 20 variant / 50 cases -> 40% variant
1) Proportion of variant doubles every 10 days
2) Doubling time of variant is actually 20 days
3) Total cases still drop by 50%
While this will likely to be the case, this should not be an automatic cause for concern. Cases could still remain contained.
Here's how: 🧵
One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.
Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But interestingly... there's no fourth wave. Cases simply level out:
https://t.co/tDce0MwO61
Just because a variant becomes the dominant strain does not automatically mean we will see a repeat of Fall 2020.
Let's look at UK and South Africa, where cases have been falling for the past month, in unison with the US (albeit with tougher restrictions):
Furthermore, the claim that the "variant is doubling every 10 days" is false. It's the *proportion of the variant* that is doubling every 10 days.
If overall prevalence drops during the studied time period, the true doubling time of the variant is actually much longer 10 days.
Simple example:
Day 0: 10 variant / 100 cases -> 10% variant
Day 10: 15 variant / 75 cases -> 20% variant
Day 20: 20 variant / 50 cases -> 40% variant
1) Proportion of variant doubles every 10 days
2) Doubling time of variant is actually 20 days
3) Total cases still drop by 50%
