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Fotios Petropoulos
@fotpetr 5 years, 6 months ago 402 views

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and his team listen to the community's feedback and offer, within a window of three years, two fantastic, insightful and impactful forecasting competitions, the M4 and M5. I am tired with all the "sceptics" that try to dismiss the competitions' results.
1/8

First, the ongoing discussion on error measures. It seems that everyone in the forecasting community has devised their own measures, and if someone is using another one then s/he is doomed. The real question is: does the chosen error measure fit the purpose of the exercise?
2/8

Second, the disbelief on the results especially from people that did not participate in the competitions. I have said that before, but skin in the game is important in forecasting (if you want to call your self a forecaster).
3/8

The fact that a method won a competition does not mean that it will win all future competitions. But, there are important lessons to be learnt. In the case of M3 and Theta: the value of information decomposition. In the case of M4 & M5: the value of cross-learning.
4/8

Such insights should be taken into account when designing future methods and algorithms. Since 2000, I have seen many new implementations of the Theta method that have improved on the original proposition. The same will surely be the case with the top methods of M4 & M5.
5/8

Third, the inability to understand the inherent limitations of designing a forecasting competition. No forecasting competition is going to be perfect. The same way that no RCT experiment will fully reflect reality. But, this does not mean that each competition does not add...
6/8

...to our understanding of forecasting. If the father of forecasting, @spyrosmakrid himself, has changed his view towards "complex" methods and saw the value of ML methods, this should be a paradigm for everyone else in the community.
7/8

I am not affiliated with the Makridakis Open Forecasting Centre, but its motto says it all: "Learn. Forecast. Compete. Disseminate. Excel." @spyrosmakrid
I invite others to do the same.
8/8

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$Dr. Simon \u30c4$

Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal

1/ One year of destroyed economies, social isolation & deep social splits calls for an anniversary ⬇️thread ⬇️ to celebrate the RT-qPCR manuscript by Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) & Victor Corman (@vmcorman), submitted on 21st Jan 2020 to @Eurosurveillanc. #UnbiasedScience

2/ Before this very publication, virologists were neither treated like superstars, nor were they considered icons or half-gods. In 2009, Drosten almost succeeded in installing the false premise virology could supersede holistic medical sciences as discussed in this thread.

3/ Drosten is a virologist. He neither has any background in epidemiology, nor has he ever worked in the civil service. He also doesn’t have a background in public health. Yet he and his colleagues affect our daily lives to the level of whom to meet up or how to flush the toilet.

4/ Before January 2020, Drosten and Corman were common virologists at Charité Berlin, whenever they were not involved in economic implications (https://t.co/UTDwG8U7Du). Other than that, they looked at coronaviruses in dromedary calves in the Middle East or Africa. 😍 #cute

5/ Finally in Jan 2020, the published paper laid the theoretical grounds for the current pandemic, the RT-qPCR mass testing-religion, for which he was awarded his second German Federal Cross of Merit (he received the first one in 2005 for developing the SARS-CoV PCR test).

Medusa Benincasa
@SaraJBenincasa

A man just said “WHAT IS THAT?”when I walked by and then quickly yelled “IT WAS A COMPLIMENT” and then a small child said, and I quote, “Uncle Joe you can’t say that to ladies.” This boy will one day lead us all to greatness as a nation.

This is the second time in a month some dude has said something to me on the street and been shut down before I even said a word. Granted the LA version was more polite than when an NYC dude told me to smile and a lady cursed him out. People are hilarious.

I wouldn’t have been rude to either dude but wow, I didn’t even have to make the choice because we Americans are chatty.

Also I’m worried about Uncle Joe because $10 says his sister is the boy’s mom and we now know she’s not afraid to tell guys what to do.

My eyes got SO BIG and I almost laughed and Uncle Joe said, “That’s fair, my dude” to this kindergartener and I was like oh God the children will lead us.

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RadioChinar
@RadioChinar

Demystifying Ghazwa-e-Hind. A #thread.

A recent video of Shoaid Akhter surfaced in social media creating a lot of controversy where the #Pakistani Cricketer can be seen suggesting invasion of India by using the term Ghazwa-e-Hind.
Radicalization of sportsmen seen off late
(1/10)

Some radical Islamic preachers believes that Ghazwa-e-Hind means a “Holy War against India”. As per this irrational & profane concept, there will be a fierce battle to secure victory over #India.
#Kashmir
(2/10)

#Pakistan-based terror groups, like JeM have been using Ghazwa-e-Hind as a Hadith to recruit, fund and justify its terror strikes as a religious holy war against #India.
#Kashmir
(3/10)

Some machiavellian people claim it is a prophecy that Muslim warriors will wage war against the #India.
Jaish & others falsely propagate that Jihad against India is considered holy in Islam & that those participating in it will be granted an easy entry into paradise.
(4/10)

However prolific scholars says that this is a made-up interpretation of some verse in The Holy Quran to mislead the gullible youth of #Pakistan into picking up arms and fighting its Army's personal battle against #India.
#Kashmir
(5/10)

Somya Lakhani
@somyalakhani

Thread:
A year ago, at this hour exactly I was in Maujpur in northeast Delhi. For days, weeks & months, I -- like several other reporters -- filed multiple stories on the #DelhiRiots. On the violence, the perpetrators, the victims, the burnt homes & shops, the fear.

I remember every minute of Feb 23, 2020 -- from the speeches to smoke billowing from afar. What I can't ever forget is the face of a man who sat alone in front of a shop, his kurta dusty and torn, blood on his forehead, unable to answer who he was & where he wanted to go.

I've his photo, I never posted it anywhere, and I won't either. He was in such shock, and there was no help around. I tried talking to him but he didn't say a word. He was numb.

It'll take me years before I can fully write down what happened that afternoon -- a stampede, stones flying all around me, a colleague who held nu hand & ran, another who lost her slipper for a minute, tear gas, my inhaler, salt.

I sent my mother messages, my hands trembling. At 1 am, I was home -- my head buried inside a pillow between my parents.

Matthew Sheffield
@mattsheffield

Thread: Rush Limbaugh and the conservative Id

On the day of his passing, it's worth doing a brief retrospective on how Rush Limbaugh's personal life almost perfectly paralleled American conservatism...

One thing that's not commonly known about Rush Limbaugh is that he began his career in sports, doing sales for the Kansas City Royals baseball team. That's significant because much of the tribalism and dumbed-down rhetoric in American TV news directly came from sports media.

Television journalism in its earliest days was a fantastic product with real investigative reporting, no filibustering live interviews, and no soundbites. This began changing in the 1970s when ABC Sports president Roone Arledge was put in charge of ABC News.

Limbaugh tried to be a conventional FM deejay but kept getting fired because his personality was too abrasive. After working with the Royals, he began a small political talk show for a Sacremento station. The Reagan repeal of the Fairness Doctrine made his show possible.

Rush Limbaugh's Sacramento show started in 1984 (he replaced Morton Downey Jr) and after 5 years, he was picked up by ABC Radio which was trying to copy some of the sensationalism that ABC News television had started. It was a perfect fit.

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WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan

WHY BABUR NEVER TRIED TO ATTACK SRI KRISHNADEVARAYA ?

A🧵u must read

It is very well known that Babur considered Krishna Dev Raya as the strongest ruler of the entire subcontinent, and Vijayanagar empire the strongest during that time in India.

1/10

The Vijayanagar empire reached its peak during 1509-1529 around the reign of Krishna Dev Raya.

Vijayanagar’s famed elephant brigade 👇

2/10

At his command there were over 50000 elite troops with a regiment of Portuguese gunners and 3200 cavalry with 600 elephants.

3/10

Along with that more than four hundred thousand ( four lakh) peasant levies and irregular military made this empire one of the largest in all of South Asia.

A typical Vijayanagar levie soldier 👇

4/10

During Baburs invasion, Krishna Dev Raya ruled supreme in all of deccan.

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Hinduism is a minority religion in Punjab.

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Thread

Durgiana Mandir is one of the oldest temples of Amritsar. According to the regional Hindu tradition, the temple was built on the spot where Lava and Kusha bound Hanuman. The temple annually attracts millions of Hindus from all over the country.

Amristsar has a very ancient Hindu history.

According to the regional Hindu tradition recorded in the "Survey of Amritsar", Amritsar got its name from Amrit immersed by Lava and Kusha in a pond.

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