BC SOCIETY
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

So what happens now?

Let me try to peer into a crystal ball here in 2021 so we can drag this thread up & laugh at me and/or praise my vision in 2024

This is not what I WANT, it’s just what I think is likely to unfold over the next four years

Chime in if I forget your pet issue

 First, there’s still a split Senate & a bare majority in the House, they can’t just ram through everything Nancy has put in the docket since 2018 on Day One unless Manchin & Sinema play ball.

Which I don’t think they will on everything. No packed court, no nuked filibuster.
We will see a second stimulus & possibly a third.

Vaccine distribution will normalize & by the end of summer we’ll be in a rocky recovery.

There will be a big fight for a public option that the Dems will probably lose unless they win big in 2022 because again Manchin.
Marijuana will be rescheduled & decriminalized but likely not federally legalized unless some GOP cross the aisle. Biden will be blamed because people don’t know how the system works.

But more & more states will legalize until it doesn’t really matter.
Trump’s tax cuts will be repealed, funding will be restored to gutted departments, but the brain drain will take a long time to heal, & no one will understand why everything doesn’t go back to normal like killing the head vampire so all the other vampires just vanish.
Biden will not go after Trump. (Not his job.)

The DOJ won’t either, but I think they may go after his kids. Ivanka & Jared at least.

SDNY will take Trump on, the cases will drag out for years & likely plead out with no jail time.

The civil lawsuits will bring the real hurt.
Voter protections of some kind will get through Congress but it won’t be enough to make up for the loss of the VRA.

Election Day will be made a holiday through EO.

But mail in voting is here to stay, which will help a lot.

2024 will be super weird due to all the WFH migration.
Trump himself will never, ever be banned from Twitter. At best every tweet will get flagged.

All the GOP will learn from #Georgia is that they need the crazies to win & will pander to them exclusively until & unless they lose bigger than that margin.

Trump will play kingmaker.
However, Trump sucks at everything he does so he will be a garbage kingmaker, mainly just trying to punish those who didn’t do his coup for him rather than build a sustained movement. He’ll mostly step in when it involves someone from his hate journal, not everyday races.
I don’t think Trump will try to defect to Russia or anything—but he will probably spend a lot of time abroad dumping on America

His kids will likely sell some state secrets he didn’t bother to read

He’ll start his network but lose 10-15% of his base once the winner sheen is off
There will be Russian sanctions, but not so severe that war looks like a better choice to them than playing nicely.

Putin will technically retire but actually still pull every string.
Most of Biden & Harris’ time will be spent just uncovering damage & putting things back in order, which will take WAY longer than the public has patience for & infighting between party wings will present a very difficult road to 2022.

I expect one Big Bill, hopefully on voting
Right wing media is about to get way, way worse.

I don’t think there is any danger at all of the GOP actually splitting—they’re more practical than that. No civil war either, they cried real tears on camera when they couldn’t get haircuts.

But a lot more domestic terrorism.
There will be a path for Dreamers & immigration will loosen up again, police won’t be defunded anywhere but will be reformed in blue states somewhat, climate change will worsen but at a slower rate barring a technological breakthrough
Harris will be the new devil incarnated for the right & some parts of the left, which will make 24/28 a real rough gig for her

I honestly don’t know if she can win with the kind of hate they can drum up in four years. Everything won’t be perfect so her record won’t be hot either
Trump won’t run in 2024, but Don Jr or Ivanka absolutely will.

They won’t win, but not because we will be better then.

Because the ambition of Cruz, Hawley, Cotton, & the rest won’t take a back seat again.
None of this will be enough for anyone.

Not big enough changes for the left, not enough capitulation for the right, everyone will be mad all the time.

Dems will keep the Senate in 2022 but lose the House unless Democratic voters realy have learned a lesson.
The cultural changes from COVID will be so vast this country won’t even look like a distant cousin of the one we live in now. Idaho will go blue sooner than people think. Everyone will be looking to WFH somewhere cheaper.

These aren’t necessarily bold predictions, I know
Basically Dems will do their best to move us forward, hampered by the system they actually respect, no one will appreciate that at all, and Republicans will go completely off the farm and never come back

But they’ll still win a lot until they’re not allowed to lie & call it news

More from Society

Indian Rwanda Radio
Indian Rwanda Radio
@IND_RwandaRadio
Nearly a year ago, the Tablighi Jamaat controversy took over India’s media. Around 3,500 foreign nationals had visited India to attend the Tablighi Jamaat event at the Nizamuddin Markaz Mosque in Delhi.

With the lockdown being announced on March 24, 2020, several attendees had moved to different parts of the country to attend smaller gatherings in local mosques.

Around 960 foreign nationals were held at quarantine and in states like UP, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Karnataka, etc. were sent straight to prison.

There was an outpour of Anti-Muslim bigotry in much of Indian news media with this event where it ramped up its demonisation of the community.

For weeks, the attendees of the Tablighi Jamaat event were named the “super-spreaders” of COVID and in several cases, Maulana Mohammad Saad was called a terrorist and “the maulana of death”.
SOCIETY
Cole Escola
Cole Escola
@ColeEscola
If you know me, you know I don't like broadcasting details about my personal life on this website, but I have been getting asked why I'm not doing Christmas this year so I just wanna put this whole mess to bed. First of all, I don't agree with gay marriage... (1 of 4,625)

... full of dog food and she said, "I'm pretending this is ice cream! Treat me like a baby!" and proceeded to hump her own arm and I thought, "something tells me this isn't the real Norah Jones"... (117 of 4,625)

...cost me $7,000. I had to put it on two separate credit cards! It wasn't 'til I got to my car that I realized "that's way too expensive for one onion." But I didn't have time. Amanda Seyfried was begging to change my diaper... (1,001 of 4,625)

...another Christmas miracle. Mistletoe, stockings, sleigh bells, snow! All these things I have put up my ass. The taste of coffee... (2,974 of 4,625)

...I felt a *very* cold finger on my cheek and I turned around and I said, "Grandma?" and she goes, "Surprise, I'm alive and I work at Sears!" I said, "okay"... (3,047 of 4,625)
SOCIETY
Advertisement
Dr. Simon \u30c4
Dr. Simon ツ
@goddeketal
1/ One year of destroyed economies, social isolation & deep social splits calls for an anniversary ⬇️thread ⬇️ to celebrate the RT-qPCR manuscript by Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) & Victor Corman (@vmcorman), submitted on 21st Jan 2020 to @Eurosurveillanc. #UnbiasedScience


2/ Before this very publication, virologists were neither treated like superstars, nor were they considered icons or half-gods. In 2009, Drosten almost succeeded in installing the false premise virology could supersede holistic medical sciences as discussed in this thread.

3/ Drosten is a virologist. He neither has any background in epidemiology, nor has he ever worked in the civil service. He also doesn’t have a background in public health. Yet he and his colleagues affect our daily lives to the level of whom to meet up or how to flush the toilet.


4/ Before January 2020, Drosten and Corman were common virologists at Charité Berlin, whenever they were not involved in economic implications (https://t.co/UTDwG8U7Du). Other than that, they looked at coronaviruses in dromedary calves in the Middle East or Africa. 😍 #cute


5/ Finally in Jan 2020, the published paper laid the theoretical grounds for the current pandemic, the RT-qPCR mass testing-religion, for which he was awarded his second German Federal Cross of Merit (he received the first one in 2005 for developing the SARS-CoV PCR test).
SOCIETY
Paul Matzko
Paul Matzko
@PMatzko
Having spent 2020 telling covid denalists that they were overly optimistic about the pandemic, I now look forward to spending 2021 telling covid maximalists that they are overly pessimistic about the end of the pandemic.

Telling a denialist in May that we shouldn't open bars back up = telling a maximalist in February that we should open schools back up.

Look, folks, the math is straightforward. ~13% of Americans have been vaccinated as of this

And the 7 day average continues to rise; we're approach 2 million vaccine doses per day. Meaning that we'll double that ~13% much faster than the two months it took us to get there.


So it's entirely reasonable that absent any other intervention, we should expect to hit ~30% vaccinated by the end of March.
SOCIETY
BlackCalvinist
BlackCalvinist
@BlackCalvinist
LOL at the uptick in followers.

Fair Warning: I believe that Cultural American Patriotic Churchianity (CAPC for short - aka White Evangelicalism/Christian Nationalism) has caused more damage to the body of Christ and the credibility of the church than CRT ever has or will.

It's been a systemic problem since the founding of the country (indeed, before the founding of the country) and has contributed to the church being complicit in chattel slavery, Jim Crow, cointelpro, redlining and a host of other things the Bible condemns as sin.

The conflation of Christianity with Americanism since the founding of the country has left too many actual believers confusing love of country and culture with biblical Christianity (thus, in their minds, to fight against conservative political culture is also to fight against

what they think is biblical Christianity). It's part of what makes it okay to minimize the sins of men like Dabney while extolling his ability as a theologian in other areas, or minimizing it as him being 'a man of his time'. It also allows you to have an atheist speak at your

Christian conference while condemning your brother who holds different political views than you, but professes the same faith you do.

On the other side of the issue, the phrase 'black lives matter' is true because of the Imago Dei. Debate your momma about it if you disagree.
SOCIETY

You May Also Like

Tom Hirst
Tom Hirst
@tom_hirst
How to create a freelancing website that makes money.

Everything I've learned.

A thread.

As a freelancer,

Your website is everything.

First, prioritise its existence.

Second, prioritise its improvement.

The technology you use is irrelevant.

- WordPress
- Notion
- Carrd
- Wix

It doesn't matter which you choose,

What matters is you have a website.

Pick a platform that you're comfortable with.

If you can:

- Capture leads
- Add content easily
- Have a clear design

You're good.

If your website doesn't get leads,

It's not working.

Don't rest on a website that doesn't work for you.

Improve it until it does.
STARTUPS
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4. @DillikiBiili

Share for the benefit of everyone.

Here are the setups from @Pathik_Trader Sir first.

1. Open Drive (Intraday Setup explained)


Bactesting results of Open Drive


2. Two Price Action setups to get good long side trade for intraday.

1. PDC Acts as Support
2. PDH Acts as


Example of PDC/PDH Setup given
STOCKLEARNINGS , LEARNSTOCKTRADING
Advertisement
Gal Gur \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f1
Gal Gur 🇮🇱...
@GalGur_
1/
Hello, my name is Gal,
I am an Israeli citizen, and I want to convey this urgent message to the world: Contrary to what you are told, Israel has not "returned to normal" in any way >>

2/ Moreover, despite the desire to create a setting as if there was a full and normal routine here - the Israeli Ministry of Health JUST RECOMMENDED TODAY TO EXTENT THE DECLARATION OF A “STATE OF EMERGENCY” in Israel >>

3/ to which is the foundation for coercion, violation of basic rights, severe discrimination under a "green mark (pass)", prolonged closure (Of about 5 months overall) and a lot of undemocratic and not “routine" restrictions. >

4/ If the situation in Israel had "returned to routine thanks to the astounding success of vaccines" then the "state of emergency" would not have continued.

5/ In fact, since the beginning of the "vaccination project" there has been only more intimidation and in many ways - even though the closure has been lifted, much more coercion.
TYRANNY
Delilah S. Dawson
Delilah S. Dawson
@DelilahSDawson
So here is a secret: Not everything I write goes anywhere. I have at least 4 books completely written and edited that never went on submission. I have books that stalled out at 20k. I have docs on my computer with opening paragraphs I don't remember writing. But! 1/

Every now and then an idea sticks with me like that corner of tortilla chip that just won't go down your throat. It happened with SPARROWHAWK, which began as 40k of a YA story, died, and was reborn as a comic, thanks to @christopher_j_r and @boomstudios. And now... 2/

It's happening with THE WILLOWS, a short story that you'll see in @UncannyMagazine next year. This Southern Gothic horror story began as an attempt to sell my next Romance to @AbZurdity after the Blud books in 2014 or so. And she didn't buy it. Guess why? 3/

Turns out, it wasn't a Romance! It was Southern Gothic Horror. Even the bones of it screamed strangeness, not sexiness. I loved the taste of the world, but I hadn't found the right story yet. Tried to write it 2 more times and failed. Until I finally understood what it was. 4/

So I took the 50 pages I'd written and cut half of them, twisting the story around from a gothy Romance inspired by the band the Civil Wars and turned it into a spooky descent into madness. And it looked back at me from the abyss as if to say, DUH. Sometimes... 5/
WRITING
Andrey \uf8ff Azimov
Andrey  Azimov
@AndreyAzimov
The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

- Have a lot of emails in the waiting list
- Become #1 on PH
- Become #1 of HN or Reddit
- Have people that saing "I'll pay"
- Have a lot of free users

The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
100+: This has a potential.
50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
0+: People don't need it.

This is for a single time payment product. For a subscription probably it should be less because people hate subscription.

And obviously, you should have a lot of traffic like 3-5k+.

Here is a stat for my products (macOS apps) for the first 24h after the launch:
STARTUPS