Authors The Sharing Scientist
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A quick thread on the new variant, pulling together information from news sources, twitter, genomic databases, and word from well-placed peers.
The new variant in the UK consists of several mutations in the spike protein, including ΔH69/ΔV70 deletions & other receptor binding domain mutations such as N501Y.
The variant is described here in this pre-print from @GuptaR_lab.
https://t.co/ui2U1r1ANA
The ΔH69/ΔV70 variant continues to increase quite rapidly as a proportion of overall positives (roughly doubling in the last 2 to three days), and is apparently now the dominant strain in test positives in some regions.
Extensive efforts have gone into enhanced surveillance for the ΔH69/ΔV70 deletion with and without RBD mutations, and it is good that we are aware of this.
There is a need for calm and rational thinking, and more evidence is needed.
But the early data is certainly concerning
Cabinet has been summoned for call at lunchtime. Lots of concern about new data on virus in parts of England, feels like fast moving situation. https://t.co/308YsJEVGw
— Nick Eardley (@nickeardleybbc) December 19, 2020
The new variant in the UK consists of several mutations in the spike protein, including ΔH69/ΔV70 deletions & other receptor binding domain mutations such as N501Y.
The variant is described here in this pre-print from @GuptaR_lab.
https://t.co/ui2U1r1ANA
The ΔH69/ΔV70 variant continues to increase quite rapidly as a proportion of overall positives (roughly doubling in the last 2 to three days), and is apparently now the dominant strain in test positives in some regions.
Extensive efforts have gone into enhanced surveillance for the ΔH69/ΔV70 deletion with and without RBD mutations, and it is good that we are aware of this.
There is a need for calm and rational thinking, and more evidence is needed.
But the early data is certainly concerning
There is much furore over Ag-LFDs again this week, with the arguments often over-simplified, & even turning toxic.
It doesn't help that the government have, & are continuing to, lie their way through the pandemic.
But that doesn't mean Ag-LFDs are all bad...
A thread 👇
1/
MHRA yesterday ruled that Ag-LFDs should not be used in schools to regularly test contacts of cases to reduce time spent in isolation.
This is a risky approach, & there is no data of the effectiveness (or cost-effectiveness), so this a fair decision.
This ruling, while probably correct & fair, will likely further damage public trust in testing, particularly as the debate rages on with government saying one thing and the MHRA another.
So, I thought it time for me to cut through the noise & ask - What does the data show?
3/
Much of the discourse over the past few months has been obsessing over the ‘poor’ performance of Ag-LFDs.
The principal argument has been that the Liverpool testing pilot showed they only find 40% of infections. But does this figure actually show us anything meaningful?Â
4/
The Liverpool community testing pilot evaluated asymptomatic testing using Ag-LFDs. They ran a sub-sample of tests of 5689 individuals, from 48 different testing sites, which were swabbed (supervised self-swab) for Ag-LFD and PCR side by side.Â
https://t.co/W8Rksg3dql
5/
It doesn't help that the government have, & are continuing to, lie their way through the pandemic.
But that doesn't mean Ag-LFDs are all bad...
A thread 👇
1/
MHRA yesterday ruled that Ag-LFDs should not be used in schools to regularly test contacts of cases to reduce time spent in isolation.
This is a risky approach, & there is no data of the effectiveness (or cost-effectiveness), so this a fair decision.
This ruling, while probably correct & fair, will likely further damage public trust in testing, particularly as the debate rages on with government saying one thing and the MHRA another.
So, I thought it time for me to cut through the noise & ask - What does the data show?
3/
Much of the discourse over the past few months has been obsessing over the ‘poor’ performance of Ag-LFDs.
The principal argument has been that the Liverpool testing pilot showed they only find 40% of infections. But does this figure actually show us anything meaningful?Â
4/
The Liverpool community testing pilot evaluated asymptomatic testing using Ag-LFDs. They ran a sub-sample of tests of 5689 individuals, from 48 different testing sites, which were swabbed (supervised self-swab) for Ag-LFD and PCR side by side.Â
https://t.co/W8Rksg3dql
5/