This is a thread on statistics in science: 1/7 (via @LogicofScience)

Basic Statistics Part 1: The Law of Large Numbers https://t.co/wUH8eAAIak

#Science #Statistics

11 BIG IDEAS OF PHYSICS

via @BlasMoros of @LTCWRK

(Thread 👇)

1. Galilean Relativity

We can never fully grasp, define, or understand a system we are part of.

“Distance provides perspective” and wisdom in life is often about perspective.

2. The Laws of Thermodynamics

The study of the large-scale behavior of systems exchanging work and heat with connected systems or their environment.

- The Transitive Law

- The Law of Conservation

- The “Contrast Advantage” Law

- The “Absolute Zero” Law

3. Newton’s Laws of Motion

Describe how objects in the world move and react to forces.

- The Inertia Law: An object at rest, stays at rest

- Force = Mass * Acceleration (F = ma)

- The Law of Reciprocity: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction

4. Complexity

A complex system exhibits emergent behavior due to the collective interaction of many individual agents according to simple rules.

Complex systems are sensitive to original conditions, influenced by feedback loops, and buffeted by random outside variables.

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand the basics of Binomial Thinking.

The future is always uncertain. There are many different ways it can unfold -- some more likely than others. Binomial thinking helps us embrace this view.

2/

The S&P 500 index is at ~3768 today.

Suppose we want to predict where it will be 10 years from now.

Historically, we know that this index has returned ~10% per year.

If we simply extrapolate this, we get an estimate of ~9773 for the index 10 years from now:

3/

What we just did is called a "point estimate" -- a prediction about the future that's a single number (9773).

But of course, we know the future is uncertain. It's impossible to predict it so precisely.

So, there's a sense of *false precision* in point estimates like this.

4/

To emphasize the uncertainty inherent in such predictions, a better approach is to predict a *range* of values rather than a single number.

For example, we may say the index will return somewhere in the *range* of 8% to 12% (instead of a fixed 10%) per year.

5/

10 years from now, this implies an index value in the *range* [8135, 11703]:

"We have purposely avoided directly confronting the issue of masks because it is such an emotional and political issue. Like waving a red flag in front of a bull, the topic elicits strong emotions which overwhelms

We wear a mask in the hospital and don a N95 mask, gown and gloves when we see a patient known to have COVID-19. Masks are used for source control when patients are admitted with various types of infectious respiratory diseases

2/

After the visit, we dispense of the gown, gloves and change into our regular surgical mask to continue patient rounds. In public, we wear a cloth mask to comply with executive orders and as a courtesy to others who feel afraid and uncomfortable.
3/

Like most of you, we rarely wash the mask, we stick it in our pockets, pick it out of the glove compartment or off the floorboard when we need it.

In truth, we wish masks worked. If they did, it would be a cheap, and easy way to control the spread of Covid.

4/

The idea that they protect not only their wearer, but also those people around them seems noble. We wished masks worked because citizens are spending billions of dollars on them.

5/