Thrilled to announce our new paper by Victoria Junquera and Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, "Assessing livelihood vulnerability using a Bayesian network: a case study in northern #Laos”, is now out in @ecologyandsociety1 https://t.co/tEbZmiulDS #openaccess #WomenInSTEM. Short thread👇

This work analyzes the effect of #cashcrop production on livelihood #vulnerability, which we define in terms of the probability distribution of household income.
We use a #Bayesian network to estimate the probability distribution of household income, conditional on biophysical (e.g., yield), household (e.g., agricultural land), and commodity price variables.
By expressing all variables, including stressors such as price volatility and yield variability, as probability distributions, our model explicitly reflects exposure and sensitivity to shocks.
Our results show the effects of household land portfolio, including diversification between cash crops and between cash and food crops, on household income and income variability.
The explicit and graphical representation of income distribution curves makes it straightforward to visualize income #inequalities, e.g., between household types or case study areas.
This approach can be used to identify the household types that have the highest potential to benefit from agricultural #commercialization and can be used to help design policy instruments that act as safety nets, such as subsidized healthcare or insurance.
Also check out Victoria Junqera's other papers on #rubber in northwestern #Laos: https://t.co/vbEMVPlOfp and https://t.co/8U83YSuhhP
This @ETH_en PLUS research was funded by the @snsf_ch @r4d_programme and implemented in partnership with the National University of Laos NUOL.
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THREAD: 12 Things Everyone Should Know About IQ

1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE


2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less.
https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n


3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)

(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)


4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.

For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3


5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)