Why Reading and observing different trends matter.
Time for a thread with a live example that is playing out in front of us! 🎵🎵
🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵
"Disney is an amazing example of autocatalysis. They had all those movies in the can.
A live example is the Music Licensing Businesses like Saregama and TIPS. Both the businesses suffered
https://t.co/ukl1HUYCOI
Multiple Lollapalooza come together to create extremely strong trends.
https://t.co/zdusVUBEIe
1. Growth of streaming business
2. Growth of Youtube viewership in India
3. Increasing internet penetration
4. Usage of retro music and remix in sitcoms, and by OTTs.
5. Insta reels
6. Finally, an optionality of Audio NFT!
Watch our Saregama Video🎵🎵 to know more about how autocatalysis is playing out! (positively biased)
https://t.co/hfe6zfy8lt
More from Intrinsic Compounding
More from Ideas
22 Powerful Ideas from Startup Founders
Startups succeed when they solve
Choose your customers
Resist the lure of new ideas when the real work begins:
Consider all paths and points of
Startups succeed when they solve
\u201cA genuine intention to solve a problem\u201d is the best startup strategy you can have.
— Al Caan (@caan_al) January 15, 2022
Do not lose sight of the intention behind your service, as you scale up.
Choose your customers
$600 Client \u2014 Complain, complain, complain
— Will Cannon (@iamwillcannon) September 12, 2021
$60,000 Client \u2014 \u201cMoney sent, thanks\u201d
Resist the lure of new ideas when the real work begins:
Beginner\u2019s Dilemma:
— Barrett O'Neill (@barrettjoneill) February 6, 2022
New endeavors are so challenging that other options appear an easier route to success.
If you choose to switch, rather than iterate and optimize, you\u2019ll always be a beginner.
And things will always seem hard.
Consider all paths and points of
90% of new startups fail.
— Chris Munn (@chrisxmunn) February 4, 2022
Consider buying a business instead.
1/ A orders chips. Supplier says "supply is getting tight." A triples order to store them in a warehouse. Supplier tells other customers supply is even tighter. They order extra chips. Quickly there are more chips in warehouses than toilet paper in garages during the pandemic.
2/ Intel's Gelsinger: "I don’t expect the chip industry is back to a healthy supply-demand situation until ’23. For a variety of industries, I think it’s still getting worse before it gets better.”
Are chips in warehouses the prime cause of the shortage? No. Demand is higher.
3/ "Software eating the world" means rising demand for chips.
I'm skeptical that this increase in chip demand is "transitory."
Fabs and backhoes don't increase with Moore's law. https://t.co/m7ZreQTzow
4/ If you invert Nathan's 1st Law:
Software can't expand faster than the chips and memory that enables its magic.
Broadcom's CEO believes chip production is a mature industry that will return to lower growth. I disagree in the medium term at least.
2/ Intel's Gelsinger: "I don’t expect the chip industry is back to a healthy supply-demand situation until ’23. For a variety of industries, I think it’s still getting worse before it gets better.”
Are chips in warehouses the prime cause of the shortage? No. Demand is higher.
3/ "Software eating the world" means rising demand for chips.
I'm skeptical that this increase in chip demand is "transitory."
Fabs and backhoes don't increase with Moore's law. https://t.co/m7ZreQTzow
4/ If you invert Nathan's 1st Law:
Software can't expand faster than the chips and memory that enables its magic.
Broadcom's CEO believes chip production is a mature industry that will return to lower growth. I disagree in the medium term at least.
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1/ Some initial thoughts on personal moats:
Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
I'm increasingly interested in the idea of "personal moats" in the context of careers.
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
Moats should be:
- Hard to learn and hard to do (but perhaps easier for you)
- Skills that are rare and valuable
- Legible
- Compounding over time
- Unique to your own talents & interests https://t.co/bB3k1YcH5b
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
People talk about \u201cpassive income\u201d a lot but not about \u201cpassive social capital\u201d or \u201cpassive networking\u201d or \u201cpassive knowledge gaining\u201d but that\u2019s what you can architect if you have a thing and it grows over time without intensive constant effort to sustain it
— Andrew Chen (@andrewchen) November 22, 2018
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
Things that look like moats but likely aren\u2019t or may fade:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
- Proprietary networks
- Being something other than one of the best at any tournament style-game
- Many "awards"
- Twitter followers or general reach without "respect"
- Anything that depends on information asymmetry https://t.co/abjxesVIh9
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
The first area to focus on is diversity. This has become a dogma in the tech world, and despite the fact that tech is one of the most meritocratic industries in the world, there are constant efforts to promote diversity at the expense of fairness, merit and competency. Examples:
USC's Interactive Media & Games Division cancels all-star panel that included top-tier game developers who were invited to share their experiences with students. Why? Because there were no women on the
ElectronConf is a conf which chooses presenters based on blind auditions; the identity, gender, and race of the speaker is not known to the selection team. The results of that merit-based approach was an all-male panel. So they cancelled the conference.
Apple's head of diversity (a black woman) got in trouble for promoting a vision of diversity that is at odds with contemporary progressive dogma. (She left the company shortly after this
Also in the name of diversity, there is unabashed discrimination against men (especially white men) in tech, in both hiring policies and in other arenas. One such example is this, a developer workshop that specifically excluded men: https://t.co/N0SkH4hR35
USC's Interactive Media & Games Division cancels all-star panel that included top-tier game developers who were invited to share their experiences with students. Why? Because there were no women on the
ElectronConf is a conf which chooses presenters based on blind auditions; the identity, gender, and race of the speaker is not known to the selection team. The results of that merit-based approach was an all-male panel. So they cancelled the conference.
Apple's head of diversity (a black woman) got in trouble for promoting a vision of diversity that is at odds with contemporary progressive dogma. (She left the company shortly after this
Also in the name of diversity, there is unabashed discrimination against men (especially white men) in tech, in both hiring policies and in other arenas. One such example is this, a developer workshop that specifically excluded men: https://t.co/N0SkH4hR35
Krugman is, of course, right about this. BUT, note that universities can do a lot to revitalize declining and rural regions.
See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
And see this other thing that I wrote:
One thing I've been noticing about responses to today's column is that many people still don't get how strong the forces behind regional divergence are, and how hard to reverse 1/ https://t.co/Ft2aH1NcQt
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) November 20, 2018
See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
And see this other thing that I wrote: