This thread is for investors or those who are interested in CDSL as an investment. Often the central reason quoted for an investment here is the gush of FCF the business produces and some float money also to boot. But this argument ignores a central problem as well. (1/11)

1/ I've Valued 150+ companies using the Discounted Cashflow (DCF) Model. Far be it for me to say I am an expert. But if you've done this as much as I have, you start noticing certain patterns.

Here are 10 lessons I've learned from using the Discounted Cashflow Model.

2/ Every investment decision you make follows a Discounted Cashflow calculation.

You let go of X today to earn Y in the future. You wouldn't do that if you didn't expect to earn an expected amount of returns (r).

Nobody wants to let go of X and get back X years down the line.

3/ When you invest in a company, you hold claim over the Assets and the Profits of a Company. Without diluting your ownership, Assets and future Profits are generated out of one thing and one thing alone: Free Cash Flow to Firm.

FCFF is the treasure at the end of the rainbow!

4/ Combining the above two observations, a company may not always make Profits in the present. In fact, if it's a young company or in a new market, losses are a given.

Eventually though, future profits should be large enough to offset or overtake all the past losses in PV terms.

5/ For most companies, generating Returns falls in a spectrum: Have high Margins and generate lower Sales in relation to Capital Employed Vs. Turn Assets faster but have low Margins (Or somewhere in between).

For Indian context, compare the Business Models of D-Mart Vs. NESCO.

@Gautam__Baid He laid down very similar principles a decade ago in his 1976 letter (Source: https://t.co/6Z5v0qEaIg)

What's amazing is how consistent he's been in following his philosophy even after nearly 5

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.

@abhishec_s @Sanjay__Bakshi The most rational course of action is to buy below your expected value, hold when it's between your expected value and overvalued zone and sell above overvalued zone (No in-betweens or holding extra cash).

But there are many impediments in executing each step.

1/ Since "liquidity" has been the buzzword these days, here's an anecdote and a powerful lesson from history about printing unlimited amounts of money. Story time. #fintwit

2/ Our story begins with Mansa Musa or Musa I of Mali, an African king who consistently figures in the list of richest people in the world (Inflation-adjusted). One of his given names was 'Lord of the (Gold) Mines of Wangara'. Lest we forget, Gold was the 'Money' in those days.

3/ One fine day in 1324, Musa decided to go on a pilgrimage to Mecca. Of course, it was easier said than done. Mecca was ~8,500 Kms away from Timbuktu, Mali. Ultimately he did make that journey and it has been recorded in the script "The Chronicles of the Seeker" by Mahmud Kati.

4/ Famously, he took a ton of 'money' (Gold) with him to aid in his journey (Well in his defense, it was ~8,500 Kms). About 60,000 laborers and soldiers carried 2 Kgs each and their camels carried 13 Kgs each, bringing the tally to an estimated ~1,30,000 Kgs of Gold.

5/ Being a generous King, he donated Gold left and right to every poor person he saw on the way. Regions of Cairo, Medina and Mecca became instantly 'rich'. The estimated donation is ~32,000 Kgs of Gold or ~$2 Billion in today's estimate.

Why Reading and observing different trends matter.

Time for a thread with a live example that is playing out in front of us! 🎵🎵

🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

“What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ‘em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.”- Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger who is the partner of Warren Buffett, has over the years explained the importance of creating a latticework of mental models. That is basically combining theory with live practical examples

One of the most interesting mental models he talked about in his books was that of Autocatalysis (lets understand this and how we can apply it to a live example):

"Disney is an amazing example of autocatalysis. They had all those movies in the can.

They owned the copyright. And just as Coke could prosper while refrigeration came, When the video cassette was invented, Disney didn’t have to invent anything or do anything except take the thing out of the can and stick it on the cassette.

Tomorrow at 11am on our Youtube channel. Have simplified it to an extent that even a 5th Grader understands the key terms 🙏

Link🎥
https://t.co/AKBBNV6N49

@unseenvalue @AdityaKhemka5 I think we may not reach double digit in counting. Not more than 4-5 would be my guess. One of which is a top holding in Aditya's portfolio. :)

The private hospital space in India has long way to go, we are only getting started...

@Nithin0dha Thanks for sharing this, I’ve introduced around 12 folks to Zerodha. There’s a ₹10k bonus lying in my Console so technically they must have paid more than ₹1L in fees or brokerages.

What a brilliant product, pass my appreciation to the Team. 🔥❤️👏

I asked, “What company is worth less than $10 billion today but you think could be worth $500+ billion in a few decades?”

I received 710 answers

Here are 20 top stocks that have 50x+ potential:

1: Alteryx - $AYX

Market cap: $5.1 billion

What it does: Big data analytics

2: Boston Omaha - $BOMN

Market Cap: $900 million

What it does: Berkshire Hathaway 2.0

3: Beyond Meat - $BYND

Market Cap: $7.9 billion

What it does: Plant-based meat

4: Desktop Metals - $DM

Market Cap: $2.3 billion

What it does: 3D Printing