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Saved by @SivaprakashVR

1/ I've Valued 150+ companies using the Discounted Cashflow (DCF) Model. Far be it for me to say I am an expert. But if you've done this as much as I have, you start noticing certain patterns.

Here are 10 lessons I've learned from using the Discounted Cashflow Model.

 2/ Every investment decision you make follows a Discounted Cashflow calculation.

You let go of X today to earn Y in the future. You wouldn't do that if you didn't expect to earn an expected amount of returns (r).

Nobody wants to let go of X and get back X years down the line.
3/ When you invest in a company, you hold claim over the Assets and the Profits of a Company. Without diluting your ownership, Assets and future Profits are generated out of one thing and one thing alone: Free Cash Flow to Firm.

FCFF is the treasure at the end of the rainbow!
4/ Combining the above two observations, a company may not always make Profits in the present. In fact, if it's a young company or in a new market, losses are a given.

Eventually though, future profits should be large enough to offset or overtake all the past losses in PV terms.
5/ For most companies, generating Returns falls in a spectrum: Have high Margins and generate lower Sales in relation to Capital Employed Vs. Turn Assets faster but have low Margins (Or somewhere in between).

For Indian context, compare the Business Models of D-Mart Vs. NESCO.
6/ Value is accrued to you as an owner/shareholder only if the company's Cash Returns are greater than what you expected to earn from the investment.

The 'technical' definition is the spread between RoCE and Cost of Capital. But the former is simpler and much more intuitive.
7/ Not all Growth is good.

Say, you expect a company to earn 15% Returns. The company enters a 50% Growth market. After deducting the expenses and investments, the net Returns are only 10%. 50% Growth sounds great, but this Growth destroys Value.

For context, see many Startups.
8/ Profitability is quite important. But equally important and generally overlooked is Sustainability.

There's a balance to be stricken, but more often than not, Sustainability of Profits over decades is much more preferable to High and unsustainable Profits.
9/ Cash has Real Option Value.

Cash held today by a company can either be rotting in irrelevant investments/FDs or it can go on to fund a lucrative investment or market entry for the firm. Otherwise, they can also be paid out as Dividends.

See: https://t.co/LsF351Jwg4
10/ A 'Moat' or Sustainable Competitive Advantage can come from a variety of factors. But largely, it results in an optimization of one or more of the Value factors of Margins, Asset Turns, Growth or Risk.

Below are just a few examples of possible Moats.
11/ Sometimes, less is more.

I tend to do both ways of accounting for Risk. I do the first and tedious way often when I Value a company for the first time. For most future Re-Valuations, I stick to a fixed level of Margin of Safety.
12/ Ultimately, Value to you as an owner or shareholder is based on three components: Numbers, Stories and Conviction.

You can build the best DCF Model in the world, but if any one of these inputs is lacking, the output will be sub-optimal. Get all of them right.
13/ I'm surprised by the attention this thread has received. So, here are 3 more lessons I learned from using a DCF.

Leverage helps, but leverage also kills.
14/ In order to account for Risk, you can either be more conservative in assumptions or use a higher discounting rate (Assuming you understand the business, of course).

Both of these processes lead to the same outcome of a decreased expected purchase price.
15/ Different businesses behave differently based on where they are in the Business Lifecycle.

Another lesson to be gleaned from this is that every business will eventually decline. Even Jeff Bezos admits that Amazon will fail one day and the aim is to prolong that event.

More from Dinesh Sairam

Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
1/ Since "liquidity" has been the buzzword these days, here's an anecdote and a powerful lesson from history about printing unlimited amounts of money. Story time. #fintwit

2/ Our story begins with Mansa Musa or Musa I of Mali, an African king who consistently figures in the list of richest people in the world (Inflation-adjusted). One of his given names was 'Lord of the (Gold) Mines of Wangara'. Lest we forget, Gold was the 'Money' in those days.


3/ One fine day in 1324, Musa decided to go on a pilgrimage to Mecca. Of course, it was easier said than done. Mecca was ~8,500 Kms away from Timbuktu, Mali. Ultimately he did make that journey and it has been recorded in the script "The Chronicles of the Seeker" by Mahmud Kati.


4/ Famously, he took a ton of 'money' (Gold) with him to aid in his journey (Well in his defense, it was ~8,500 Kms). About 60,000 laborers and soldiers carried 2 Kgs each and their camels carried 13 Kgs each, bringing the tally to an estimated ~1,30,000 Kgs of Gold.

5/ Being a generous King, he donated Gold left and right to every poor person he saw on the way. Regions of Cairo, Medina and Mecca became instantly 'rich'. The estimated donation is ~32,000 Kgs of Gold or ~$2 Billion in today's estimate.
ECONOMY
Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
1/ There are a ton of books about Financial & Fundamental Analysis, Scuttlebutt and Technical Analysis. But there aren't many books 'taking risk'.

Among the few that exist, 'Zurich Axioms', written in 1985, is the best. Here are my key takeaways from the book.


2/ A bit about Max Gunther's (The Author) background. He was an Anglo-American journalist and writer, who wrote 26 Books.

His father, Franz Heinrich, was the New York Head of Schweizerischer Bankverein, which later merged into the famous Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS).

3/ The 'Zurich Axioms' were a set of unwritten rules followed by a informal group of Swiss Bankers and Traders who used to socialize around Wall Street after World War II. Mr. Heinrich was one of the founding members.

Max Gunter formalied these 'Axioms' by writing about them.

4/ There are 12 'Major Axioms' and 16 'Minor Axioms' (Corollary to the Major Axioms) in the book.

But remember, this is MY key takeaways from the book and not an exact summary. So you might find quotes, phrases and links inserted here and there by me (Not from the Author).

5/ Axiom #1: In order to earn returns, you must take risk. Risk will make you worry.

Risk-taking and worrying go hand-in-hand. If you're not worried about an investment, you're not taking risk.

Spend half your energy towards earning an income and the rest towards speculation.
BOOKS , FINANCE
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Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
@abhishec_s @Sanjay__Bakshi The most rational course of action is to buy below your expected value, hold when it's between your expected value and overvalued zone and sell above overvalued zone (No in-betweens or holding extra cash).

But there are many impediments in executing each step.
WISE INVESTING
Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.


3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.


5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.
VALUATION
Dinesh Sairam
Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam
This thread is for investors or those who are interested in CDSL as an investment. Often the central reason quoted for an investment here is the gush of FCF the business produces and some float money also to boot. But this argument ignores a central problem as well. (1/11)

I completely agree that CDSL is a business that produces ample amount of Free Cash. So, it begs the question: "What are they doing with all that cash?" Generally, firms can utilize the cash on their books in 4 ways: Dividends, Acquisitions, Capex/Investments and Buybacks. (2/11)

CDSL does have a Dividend Payout Ratio of ~35-40%. But Dividends are the least efficient way of utilizing cash, due to the Triple Taxation on Dividends. More

Handled well, Inorganic Growth is so lucrative that some companies build their business models around acquisitions (Say, MSSL or Cyient). However, CDSL literally CAN'T be one such company. Read 7 (c) of the below regulatory document to know more:

https://t.co/071lwnnwJ4

(4/11)


CDSL can also reinvest cash into their own business, like most companies do. But CDSL (And most Exchanges) have little need for Capex/Reinvestment. CDSL's IPO came in at Rs. 523.99 Crores. Two years in, the Cash and Investments on their books stands at Rs. 650 Crores. (5/11)
IDEAS

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Ankur Patel
Ankur Patel
@AnkurPatel59
FEW USEFUL CHARTINK SCANNERS :

This Scanner will be More than Enough for any Swing / Positional Trader to find Good Stocks.

Few Important Chart ink Scanners which can help you to find Setups and boost up your Trading Account : 🧵

Do Retweet If you If it Useful

1. Momentum Stocks

This Scanner can be helpful for Short term Swing Trades . you can easily find Stocks which are in Momentum.

Stocks which are up by 20 % in 5 Days
Stocks which are up by 30 % in 30 Days
Stocks which are up by 30 % in 30 Days

2. Volume Spike

We always Look for Price and Volume Confirmation for Breakout Trading. This scanner will help you to find the Stocks Which has given a move with Good Volume . You can keep this Stock in Radar and catch the Next move in them :

3 . Reversal Scan

Stocks which are Down by 20 % + in 5 days

When Market Corrects for sometime , You can find Stocks where selling is Exhausted and they can make a Good Reversal move .

4. Reversal Scan - Stock Down continues 5 days .

If you Know the Concept of 3-5 Days move . you might catch few stocks from this scanner. Always try and Pick stocks which are in strong momentum , you have more Chances of Getting Right in Reversal Trade.
TRADING SCREENERS , TRADING SCREENER , ALL
Daddy Files
Daddy Files
@DaddyFiles
This is my son, Sam. He’s 5. And today he learned how shitty and harmful #ToxicMasculinity is. My rage meter is spiking right now so excuse me if this is a little raw but there are some things I want to say about BS #gender norms (a thread)


Sam is my middle child & he’s a terror. A “boy’s boy” as so many (not me) would say. He’s rough and tumble, he’s loud, he’s always dirty, loves trucks, plays sports and knee drops me from the couch. But he also loves a lot of “girl” things.

Sam has a collection of purses because he likes to carry things around. And he also loves to have his nails painted bright colors because he thinks they “look beautiful.” And he’s right – they are beautiful…


So he proudly wore his red nail polish to kindergarten this morning because Sam has absolutely no concept of nail polish only being for girls or reason to think anyone would possibly have a problem with beautiful nails.


But his classmates did have a problem. A big one. Sam was ridiculed for being a boy with nail polish. They called him names and told him to take it off. This lasted the entire day.
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SK
SK
@sk_diary1
Margatha Natarajar murthi - Uthirakosamangai temple near Ramanathapuram,TN
#ArudraDarisanam
Unique Natarajar made of emerlad is abt 6 feet tall.
It is always covered with sandal paste.Only on Thriuvadhirai Star in month Margazhi-Nataraja can be worshipped without sandal paste.


After removing the sandal paste,day long rituals & various abhishekam will be https://t.co/e1Ye8DrNWb day Maragatha Nataraja sannandhi will be closed after anointing the murthi with fresh sandal paste.Maragatha Natarajar is covered with sandal paste throughout the year


as Emerald has scientific property of its molecules getting disturbed when exposed to light/water/sound.This is an ancient Shiva temple considered to be 3000 years old -believed to be where Bhagwan Shiva gave Veda gyaana to Parvati Devi.This temple has some stunning sculptures.
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Pratham
Pratham
@Prathkum
APIs in general are so powerful.

Best 5 public APIs you can use to build your next project:

1. Number Verification API

A RESTful JSON API for national and international phone number validation.

🔗 https://t.co/fzBmCMFdIj


2. OpenAI API

ChatGPT is an outstanding tool. Build your own API applications with OpenAI API.

🔗 https://t.co/TVnTciMpML


3. Currency Data API

Currency Data API provides a simple REST API with real-time and historical exchange rates for 168 world currencies

🔗 https://t.co/TRj35IUUec


4. Weather API

Real-Time & historical world weather data API.

Retrieve instant, accurate weather information for
any location in the world in lightweight JSON format.

🔗 https://t.co/DCY8kXqVIK
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Ben Meer
Ben Meer
@SystemSunday
The best morning routine?

Starts the night before.

9 evening habits that make all the difference:

1. Write down tomorrow's 3:3:3 plan

• 3 hours on your most important project
• 3 shorter tasks
• 3 maintenance activities

Defining a "productive day" is crucial.

Or else you'll never be at peace (even with excellent output).

Learn more


2. End the workday with a shutdown ritual

Create a short shutdown ritual (hat-tip to Cal Newport). Close your laptop, plug in the charger, spend 2 minutes tidying your desk. Then say, "shutdown."

Separating your life and work is key.

3. Journal 1 beautiful life moment

Delicious tacos, presentation you crushed, a moment of inner peace. Write it down.

Gratitude programs a mindset of abundance.

4. Lay out clothes

Get exercise clothes ready for tomorrow. Upon waking up, jump rope for 2 mins. It will activate your mind + body.
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Erik Torenberg
Erik Torenberg
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1/ Someone emailed me asking how to break into VC, so I wanted to answer on Twitter where others could see and contribute to the conversation.

2/ “Being a VC” can mean a lot of different things, so it’s worth asking:

What actual activities do you want to do?

- Deep market analysis?
- Be in the flow of information and people?
- Make deals?
- Work closely w/ founders over time (e.g take board seats?)
- Manage capital?

3/ It’s worth specifying what type of VC you might like to become — as there are different archetypes. E.g.

- Benchmark (Lead series A/B - couple investments a year)
- First Round (Lead seed rounds, partner w/ a few companies a year)
- SV Angel (Make lots of seed investments)

4/ Continued:

Expa - Incubate companies

YC / Village Global - Build a platform to help entrepreneurs at scale

Do you want to join a firm or start one? There’s a lot to consider.

Different paths will require different skillsets & sets of experiences.

5/ Since the person who wrote the email is a young person trying to break into VC by joining a firm (and who doesn’t want to start a company), I’ll tailor this tweet storm to that goal. There’s some overlap.
STARTUPS
Vibhu Vashisth \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Vibhu Vashisth 🇮🇳...
@VIBHU_Tweet
Did you know?

Rani Bhabani was the Queen of Natore, Bengal or 'Natorer Rani' as she was famously called. She made great contributions in Tarapith & renovated Benaras.

In Varanasi, Durga Kund Mandir was constructed by Rani Bhabani in the 18th century.


Born in Chhatimgram village, Bogra District,Her father's name was Atmaram Choudhury.Bhabani was married off to Raja Ramkanta Moitra,the then zamindar of Rajshahi.After his death, Bhabani became the zamindar, and started being referred to as Rani.She was known as Ardhabangeshwari.

A woman as a zamindar was extremely rare in those days, but Rani Bhabani managed the vast Rajshahi zamindari most efficiently and effectively for over four decades.
Maharani Bhavani was very pious in her personal life. She passed her life in a strict disciplined way.


She conducted the administrative work skillfully. As a Maharani she was an impartial judge. Rani Bhavani had a very hard time during the fag end of her life. The Zamindari (estate) incurred serious loss due to the change of the revenue policy of the company.

In spite of being the owner of a large Zamindari (estate), she had to depend on the stipend of the government in the later part of her life. The amount of this stipend gradually decreased and became Rs. 1000/- only in the end.
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Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Surkanda devi mandir is a famous shrine of Hindus located near Kaddukhal distt of Uttarakhand, 11 Km from the town of Dhanaulti and 35 Km from Mussoorie.
The Temple is one of the 51 Shakti Peethas spread all over Indian Subcontinent and is dedicated to Goddess Surkanda.


Nestled on a Hill at an Altitude of 2700 m approx, the place offers a splendid view of the snow capped mountains, the picturesque scenic beauty that offers an experience of the lifetime.
The Temple build in the traditional Garhwal style exuberates the Architectural splendour.


The origins of the Surkanda Mata Mandir is attributed to Goddess Sati, consort of Bhagwan Shiv who in a rage immolated herself in her arrogant Father Daksha's Yajna Kund bcoz he didn't invite Bhagwan Shiv in the Yajna.


Devastated by the death of Sati Shiva wandered all over the cosmos performing Tandava-The Dance of Cosmic Destruction.Fearing the total annihilation of cosmos, Gods requested Bhagwan Vishnu to pacify Shiva.Bhagwan Vishnu then used his discuss to destroy the burning corps of Sati.


The pieces of Sati Mata's body then got scattered all over the region which were later established as Shakti Peethas by Bhagwan Shiva himself.Its believed that the head of Sati fell here and it was called Sirkhanda Mata Temple before, but with passage of time it became Surkanda.
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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Velimalai Kumaraswamy Kshetram
Kumarakovil, #Kanyakumari
#Tamilnadutemples 🚩

Velimalai Kumaraswamy Temple is a Murugan temple located in Kanyakumari District of Tamilnadu.

Muruga faces east and is said to be facing Sthanumalayan (Paramashiva) of Suchindram. Muruga is of


eight feet vigraham and Valli thayar is six feet tall. Eventhough Thiruthani is believed to be the place where Subrahmanya married Valli, it is also believed that Valli’s thayar's marriage took place with Murugan here.

There is a Kalyana Vinayakar sannidhi
who helped Muruga's


marriage with Valli. Kumarakovil is also known as Kumara Kshetram and Subrahmanya Sthala. The Tamil epic Chilapathikaram refers to the temple as Chera Nattu Aeragam

Wedding of Valli and Murugan is celebrated here in the Tamil month of Panguni (March-April).

Om Muruga
🙏🕉🙏
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Katie Mack
Katie Mack
@AstroKatie
Light travels at about 1 foot per nanosecond.

Hold your hand up 12 inches from your face: you’re seeing your hand as it was a nanosecond ago. Everything you look at is, to one degree or another, in the past. The farther away in space, the more ancient in time.

You can’t see the Sun as it is now, but you can see it as it was about 8 minutes ago. You can’t see Alpha Centauri now, but you can see it 4.4 years ago. You can see the Andromeda Galaxy as it was 2.5 million years in the past. And so on.

With powerful telescopes, we can see galaxies whose light has been traveling to us for more than 13 billion years. We see them shining in a universe that’s still young, where gravity has just begun to pull matter together into stars and galaxies.

We can see something even more distant, and more ancient, than the first galaxies. If we peer out far enough, in between the galaxies, we can see parts of the Universe that are so far away, it has taken the light from that distance almost the entire age of the cosmos to reach us.
SCIENCE