2/20
Happy Tuesday! The latest focal S:N501 build is now updated with sequences from 11 Jan.
There are 101 new sequences in the 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2 variants.
Additionally, I'll include some updates on S:E484K in this thread.
1/20
https://t.co/dXx6nk6Llz
2/20
3/20
4/20
6/20
7/20
Zooming in, the new sequences are marked in red: 2 are separate introductions. Zooming in further (divergence view), cluster at the top are identical to an older sequence.
8/20
9/20
10/20
11/20
There are 4 new non-South African sequences in 501Y.V2, including the first from Ireland (3) and the Netherlands (1).
12/20
The Netherlands has its first sequence in 501Y.V2 (picture 3).
13/20
14/20
https://t.co/c7wlQOLRiq
S:E484K is found predominantly in the 501Y.V2 variant, & in a cluster of sequences primarily in Brazil, though it has appeared numerous times in the past.
15/20
https://t.co/Od95D6DL74
Links to the studies are on https://t.co/SmanZBHpse
16/20
Translated report linked below.
17/20
https://t.co/G1ITeT3MoV
Additionally, I've added a *temporary* label to the Brazilian cluster with S:E484K: 20B/S.484K.
18/20
19/20
Help make my updates more boring: bring cases down!
20/20
https://t.co/fZDQqwvJmr
21/20
Updated SARS-CoV-2 new variant report now available for 2021-01-11 at https://t.co/e3J9becNTz. @arambaut @viralverity @MOUGK pic.twitter.com/x4UabXv5Yt
— \xc1ine O'Toole (@AineToole) January 11, 2021
More from Dr Emma Hodcroft
🎉Happy New Year!🎉
To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)
(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! 🎆)
1/23
The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.
2/23
S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS
Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI
Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.
3/23
The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.
In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.
4/23
In countries with previous sequences:
6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.
5/23
To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)
(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! 🎆)
1/23
The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.
2/23
S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS
Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI
Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.
3/23
The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.
In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.
4/23
In countries with previous sequences:
6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.
5/23
Each day brings new challenges, but here's an update to the dedicated S.N501 build, using data from 6 Jan 2021 to keep you going.
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) & 7 new non-South-African sequences in 501Y.V2.
1/14
https://t.co/kT1gFsSZn0
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 from the Netherlands, Italy, Hong Kong, Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Brazil, and the first sequence from 501Y.V1 in Oman.
https://t.co/XA8VR8HiEq
2/14
Oman has their first sequence which falls into 501Y.V1:
3/14
Finland has 12 new sequences (orange), which mostly represent separate introductions. Zooming in (divergence view), we can see 3 of the new sequences are identical (red), which may indicate the cases are connected.
4/14
Sweden has 8 new sequences (orange), which indicate separate introductions.
5/14
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) & 7 new non-South-African sequences in 501Y.V2.
1/14
https://t.co/kT1gFsSZn0
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 from the Netherlands, Italy, Hong Kong, Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Brazil, and the first sequence from 501Y.V1 in Oman.
https://t.co/XA8VR8HiEq
2/14
Oman has their first sequence which falls into 501Y.V1:
3/14
Finland has 12 new sequences (orange), which mostly represent separate introductions. Zooming in (divergence view), we can see 3 of the new sequences are identical (red), which may indicate the cases are connected.
4/14
Sweden has 8 new sequences (orange), which indicate separate introductions.
5/14
Lots of tweets about this today!
Let's see what we can see in the focal S:E484 build!
Phylogenetics (what I do - making 'family trees' from virus genetics) can be very informative to see how different variants are spreading, and how cases
There are two variants circulating predominantly in Brazil:
- 20B/S.484K seems to be older & more widespread. It has (among others) a mutation at position 484
- 20J/501Y.V3 is smaller & detected recently. It has mutations at 501 *and* 484.
2/10
https://t.co/Cw5u2kuATa
The variant predominantly in the UK (501Y.V1 / B.1.1.7) and the variant predominantly in South Africa (501Y.V2) also both have 501. 501Y.V2 *also* has the 484K mutation.
Why are there concerns about these mutations? You can read more at https://t.co/wVE7ubYBoy!
3/10
The view below is from an analysis focusing on sequences with a mutation at 484. It shows all the samples in the 2 variants (20B/S.484K & 20J/501Y.V3) & how they're related. More closely related = closer together (very, very roughly).
4/10
We can colour these samples by region to see where they're from. As we expect - most are in Brazil! A few are in Argentina (also red).
5/10
https://t.co/Cw5u2kuATa
Let's see what we can see in the focal S:E484 build!
Phylogenetics (what I do - making 'family trees' from virus genetics) can be very informative to see how different variants are spreading, and how cases
There are two variants circulating predominantly in Brazil:
- 20B/S.484K seems to be older & more widespread. It has (among others) a mutation at position 484
- 20J/501Y.V3 is smaller & detected recently. It has mutations at 501 *and* 484.
2/10
https://t.co/Cw5u2kuATa
The variant predominantly in the UK (501Y.V1 / B.1.1.7) and the variant predominantly in South Africa (501Y.V2) also both have 501. 501Y.V2 *also* has the 484K mutation.
Why are there concerns about these mutations? You can read more at https://t.co/wVE7ubYBoy!
3/10
The view below is from an analysis focusing on sequences with a mutation at 484. It shows all the samples in the 2 variants (20B/S.484K & 20J/501Y.V3) & how they're related. More closely related = closer together (very, very roughly).
4/10
We can colour these samples by region to see where they're from. As we expect - most are in Brazil! A few are in Argentina (also red).
5/10
https://t.co/Cw5u2kuATa
More from For later read
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1/ Some initial thoughts on personal moats:
Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
I'm increasingly interested in the idea of "personal moats" in the context of careers.
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
Moats should be:
- Hard to learn and hard to do (but perhaps easier for you)
- Skills that are rare and valuable
- Legible
- Compounding over time
- Unique to your own talents & interests https://t.co/bB3k1YcH5b
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
People talk about \u201cpassive income\u201d a lot but not about \u201cpassive social capital\u201d or \u201cpassive networking\u201d or \u201cpassive knowledge gaining\u201d but that\u2019s what you can architect if you have a thing and it grows over time without intensive constant effort to sustain it
— Andrew Chen (@andrewchen) November 22, 2018
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
Things that look like moats but likely aren\u2019t or may fade:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
- Proprietary networks
- Being something other than one of the best at any tournament style-game
- Many "awards"
- Twitter followers or general reach without "respect"
- Anything that depends on information asymmetry https://t.co/abjxesVIh9
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”
Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:
2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to
- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal
3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:
Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.
Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.
4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?
To get clarity.
You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.
It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”
Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:
Next level tactic when closing a sale, candidate, or investment:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) February 27, 2018
Ask: \u201cWhat needs to be true for you to be all in?\u201d
You'll usually get an explicit answer that you might not get otherwise. It also holds them accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to
- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal
3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:
Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.
Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.
4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?
To get clarity.
You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.
It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”
Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
