Newbie traders after learning F&O, look for paper trading platforms to practise. It's like the itch to swim after you learn swimming but end up in a baby pool. Experience of an adult pool vs a baby pool is different, likewise with the real markets & paper trading 🧵 (1/11)

Agreed, without experience, loading your trading account to the tilt and trading can be disastrous 🌋, but that does not mean you will have to paper trade forever. No matter how much you paper trade, you will never get the experience of trading (2/11)

When I talk about trading, I’m not just talking about experiencing the P&L rush. IMHO, experiencing the P&L and how it can vary in real-time is the last thing. There are multiple other things that you need to get comfortable with before diving into full-fledged trading 🏊‍♂️(3/11)

Stuff like placing limit/market order, GTT, AMO. Practising how SL-L for long & short positions works, trailing stops, figuring how margins work, M2M, T+1, T+2 settlements - the list is endless😩 with several moving parts. No paper trading platform gives you the real deal (4/11)

Here is a hack, though - instead of paper trading, try and place an actual trade on a low-value futures contract. My favourite is USD INR 💱, it costs just under 2K per contract, but gives you the whole trading experience (5/11)

1/ A lot of people ask me how Bleacher Report found our first writers when we were tiny and had no funding.

So here's a thread on all the things we tried, what worked best, and lessons on growing a community from scratch:

2/ When we first started B/R, all the articles were written by my co-founders, our friends, and me.

This led to some hilariously bad takes. Like this article where I panned the SF Giants for drafting future World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner.

3/ When we were ready to start building our community, we started with word of mouth. We drafted an email pitching our concept. It went out to everyone we knew, asking them to share it with anyone who would be interested.

This got us maybe a few dozen signups.

From the email:

4/ With only a handful of members, we needed to make the community feel more active.

So we faked it til we made it.

Our team created multiple accounts and posted using different fake names. This created the sense of more activity and encouraged new members to join in.

5/ Later, I learned that the founders of Reddit did the same thing early on.

Sometimes the solution to the "chicken and the egg" problem of building community is to create the illusion of more chickens (or

Today we're gonna talk about profits. They come from stock! #AdamSmith reminds us that stock is any resource paid for in advance when doing business. In general, profits and wages don't move together. (I.ix.1–2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

As stock goes up, there's more of it to employ more workers (by paying them or providing machines for them to work or both). This raises wages! But new stock competes with existing stock, which tends to lower profit. (I.ix.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

If you thought figuring out the average wages of labor was complicated, don't even think about trying to figure out the average profit of stock. Basically impossible. Luckily, the rate of interest tends to vary with the profits of stock. (I.ix.3–4) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Lots of laws have tried to control interest rates and stop usury. They've all failed to do either. (I.ix.5–9) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Profits and wages rising together is unusual, but it happens. In particular, in new colonies. (I.ix.11) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

GS Tactical Fund Flows 2021 - some interesting tidbits:

We are set up to see a massive wave of inflows [in 2021]. The “January Effect” will be exceptionally strong this year. Investors are looking to buy the dips, but they remain shallow as there is competition for dip alpha.

Global stocks are now worth equal to 116% of Global GDP, the highest level since 2007.

AAIIBEAR Index “Da Bears” just logged a reading of sub 22.00, the lowest reading since January 2nd. The Bulls logged their longest euphoria reading since January 2018. Euphoria is high.

The month of January see’s a 37% of yearly inflows as a result of 401k and asset allocation rebalancing. Can see financial advisors recommending a portfolio shift back into equities given the current defensive allocation.

Over the last 25 yrs, 25bps of AUM of new money comes into the market each January. This is a big number on $20 Trillion worth of fund assets. This would be about +$50B worth of buy demand, and 2021 could see at least double this year.

The Nasdaq hit its 55th record close of the year on Monday and has gained almost 44% this year. There may be some FOMO.

This flow of funds shift will get exacerbated this year given the heavy positioning in money markets and bonds, aka TINA, or lack of alternatives.

The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
A thread.
( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)

Problem : I have a good system, I understand charts and/or price action, but I simply can't make money. I hold my losses too long or ( this is most common) I get out of profitable positions too fast and cannot sit for the whole move

At many firms at NASDAQ, day-traders are seen as elite sportspersons playing in a difficult taxing game. That's why, they have regular sessions with sports psychologists. They are advised to follow the basic routine of sportspersons.
Train ---- Play tournaments --- Rest

The cycle repeats

We retail day-traders here neither rest nor train.

Rest = taking time off markets
Train = trading in markets in training mode

Understanding REST is easy, simply take time off markets and spend time with family or do something you love

The excellent ECB Financial Stability Review, https://t.co/k8HcqpryDF illustrates well the 2 main risks I see for the EA economy next year: possible insufficient fiscal stimulus and weakening of bank credit supply. The FSR mentions “a slightly tighter fiscal stance" in 2021 1/

The FSR correct statement “fiscal tightening at a time when output gaps are still projected to be negative could exacerbate the current economic situation.”, caused some stir and many comments in social media. The same regarding the accompanying chart 2/

The FSR uses the Commission forecasts showing a slight increase of the cyclically-adjusted primary budget balance from -3.2% this year to -2.9% in 2021. 0.3% is a small change not comparable with the mistake of 2012/13 when it went from -0.6% in 2011 to +0.5 & +1.4 in 2012/13 3/

I think the primary balance will end-up higher than those forecasts because families and firms will continue to need a lot of support in the first half of the year. Moreover, growth in 2021 is dependent on public expenditure as other demand components will not be very buoyant. 4/

As the FSR says: “A premature withdrawal of policy support and a protracted pandemic could prolong the recession and have permanent scarring effects.” Besides extending income transfers to families and firms, more public investment is indispensable for a robust recovery 5/

1/ Brief history & Roadmap of @CreamdotFinance

One of the fastest shipping teams in DeFi

1) "Funded by hundreds of millions of dollars from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and other high-tech interests, activist organizations created a two-tiered election

Ten MF mistakes I recommend you avoid...

1. Too much love

A fund does well. You fall in love with the fund house. You have a large mid and small cap scheme from them. They all tank together! Diversify. And remember being good at one thing doesn’t make you good at the other.

2. One for all

Applying the same metrics to judge different asset classes. What matters to equity funds doesn’t matter to debt funds. Arb funds are fully hedged - the individual stocks don’t matter, they do in equities. Understand what matters for each asset class.

3. Perils of passive

Assuming all passive funds are good because they are cheap. There are terrible passive funds out there too. They track bad indices. Or they track good ones but have a lot of tracking error. Passive requires its own set of research.

4. Apples and kiwis 🍎 🥝

We have categories in MF but sadly all funds in a category are not comparable. Just because a website compares them doesn’t mean you should look beneath. BAF categories have funds that are static, dynamic bond funds have rolldowns. Just an example.

The most memorable interview I did this year was w/ Stanley Druckenmiller, who famously made $1B shorting the British Pound.

The trading legend's track record includes a 30-year stretch returning 30%+ a year (without a single down year).

Here are 8 investing lessons🧵

1/ Make concentrated bets in high conviction plays

2/ Concentrated bets can sometimes *reduce* risk

3/ Use a multi-disciplinary approach to investing

4/ Know when to sell (he never uses a stop loss)

1/ Mission Statements 🧵

I used to think mission statements were just corporate fluff

False words that companies created for HR reasons

I've slowly changed my mind about them

They are THE BEST stakeholder alignment & decision-making tool ever

EVER!

Need convincing? ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

2/ What is a mission statement?

At its core, a mission statement should answer this question:

*****Why does the company exist?*****

A profound question that is easy to overlook!

3/ When used properly

Mission Statements should guide ALL of the actions of the organization

It's like a company's North Star

If an activity doesn’t advance the mission,

it should be discarded!

If an activity does advance the mission,

it should be adopted!

4/ A Mission and a Vision statement are different

Mission: WHY the company exists

Vision: What the company/world looks like if the company is successful

Both important, but they are NOT interchangeable

5/ The reason I used to think mission statements didn't matter

is because the vast majority of companies/CEOs

don't believe they matter!

Most companies SUCK at creating & communicating them!

Why should employees/shareholders care about a mission

if the company/CEO doesn't?

TSMC $TSM projecting capital expenses of 25-28B USD in 2021. 80% allocated for advanced process tech, 3, 5, 7nm. 10% advanced packaging and mask making, 10% other. 2020 capex, originally slated at $15B, was over $17B. For context $AMD's entire revenue for 2020 estimated at $9.5B

Management sees a growing market and TSMC growing faster than the market, with a 2020-2025 CAGR of 10-15%. In 2019 capex was initially estimated at $10-11B and then revised up to $15B. They are expanding fast, and newer nodes are more capital intensive.

3nm looking good and has strong customer interest, production in 2H 2022.
All this, especially the capex, in line with suggestions Intel will be increasing their use of TSMC fabs, or else AMD making really large increases (or both), but they also project a lot of growth in phones

TSMC utilization rate is very high, and they expect it to remain high in Q1. They expect more revenue in Q1 than in Q4. Margin is hit by the weak USD and the large capex, but they still think a 50% gross margin is reasonable, long term.

Analyst on call surprised at raise in capex, says it is above consensus. Hmmm $INTC?

This is value investor, Allan Mecham.

He dropped out of college at age 22 to start his fund, Arlington Value.

From 2008-2016, they did a CAGR of 30% over 8.5 years!

And in his fund letters, he shared his best frameworks for investing in companies.

Here's a breakdown of each:

1. Adopt a mindset for longevity

He focuses on variables that affect a business' durability.

Stuff like valuation doesn't matter if the business quality is misjudged.

Since a company's value is determined by its future cash flows...

Hence evaluating its future is key

2. Stay within your circle of competence

Allan is aware that his CoC is tiny!

Thus, he rarely buys companies that he:

• Hasn't researched
• Hasn't followed for at least a few years.

Because the best way to study a business is to observe its execution overtime.

3. Embrace volatility as a gift

Public markets offer you amazing deals you will never get in the private markets!

It's all about being patient.

The underlying value of a business is much more stable than the stock.

So you can buy great businesses that are mispriced!

4. Avoid noise and news

More information can give you a false sense of confidence.

It can create an illusion of "knowledge", and make you think many things are important.

The key is to know what are the 3-5 main variables in the company, and focus on those.

Ignore the rest.

A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time

The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data

https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc

They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Camarilla levels are also quite popular. This seemed to be the next best thing after the original pivots at one point of

Over the years, many other technicians have tried to devise other methods to devise intraday support resistance points. In almost all cases, the previous days OHLC were used in some variation, in some cases today's OPEN was also used as an input

I have gone through almost all of the formulas. Some work on some days, some days it doesn't.
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets

This is the same as choosing a time period of an indicator and hope the market follows my choice of time frame to give me good trades. Like say a crossover of a 5/13 moving average, or a 14 period RSI or whatever.

Exclusive: Alleged RCMP mole accused of selling secrets to kingpin money launderer and terror-financier’s network | https://t.co/6oS5jHrnWQ https://t.co/evpm0Eh9S6 @CullenInquiryBC

1. I'll unpack a few points from this ongoing investigation by Global News into the Ortis case. The allegations against Ortis, from my investigation, are very international in scope, and could not be more relevant to the work of @CullenInquiryBC

2. If you have the impression that Ottawa has been asleep at the wheel with issues of transnational drug cartels using Canadian cities as giant money laundering vehicles, that would be partly correct, in my years of expertise. But the Ortis case alleges something else going on.

3. What my investigation shows, is the case against Cameron Ortis -- who was one of the most influential leaders in RCMP and top intel official -- is he was allegedly corrupt and compromised a Five Eyes probe of a global kingpin money launderer.

4. In order to understand the case, it can't be stressed enough how important the Altaf Khanani money laundering organization is to drug trafficking and terrorist attacks worldwide, according to the DEA.

A simple thread to understand the meaning of investment cycle (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) in the economy and why it is important?
Which sectors can benefit in such cycle and why?

Do share if you find it useful.

1/n

What is Gross Fixed Capital Formation?

There are essentially 2 methods to calculate GDP of a country. Both methods ultimately tries to measure the total value of goods and services produced in the country during a particular period.

2/n

1. Income Method of GDP calculation adds up INCOME EARNED from all goods and services produced in the country.

2. Expenditure method of GDP calculation takes into account all purchases of goods and services in the country.

3/n

Expenditure method adds up all
consumer spending(C), government spending (G),
business investment spending (I), and net exports (x-m)

Formula:
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M) is the formula for EXPENDITURE method of GDP.

4/n

The “I” (investment) component in the above includes, business investments in creating new assets and spending by households (not government) on new houses also gets included in Investment.

This is known as "Gross Fixed Capital Formation"

5/n