Possibly the greatest NBER abstract ever written.

The Great Man theory of history.... turns out to have some pretty strong statistical support.

School closures had NO EFFECT (precise null!) on socioeconomic outcomes and future schooling behavior during the 1918 pandemic.

The authors note that school closures were not as long back then.

But also school calendars were far shorter. So idk how it shakes out.

Informing men about the odds their wife will die in childbirth reduces fertility, increases marital satisfaction, and reduces mismatch in fertility preferences within couples (in Zambia).

This took me 6 years to learn, I'll teach you in 2 minutes.

23 sentences that'll make you more money than a $40,997 business degree:

1. Irresistible offer - Desirable outcome + proof + scarcity + urgency + guarantee + bonuses

2. Join the most expensive gym in your city. one connection will pay for it many times over - jk

3. If you keep waiting for the “right time” you will keep wasting all of your time.

4. Don't be cheap with: doctors, lawyers and tax advisors

5. Give yourself 3 days to do it and it'll take 3 days.

Give yourself 3 hours to do it and it'll take 3 hours.

6. Send a physical gift to customers and everyone who's worked with you for more than 3 months

7. Your customer's fear of loss is more powerful than their desire for gain.

1/16
Was reading upon #Biases & learnt a lot. Thought of sharing a few pointers .
Simply put Bias is a disproportionate weight in favour of or against any idea/thing in all aspects of life.
Few types of Biases ( out of the many) with not so random images. :)
+

2/16
The #DunningKruger effect now is fairly well known , wherein people with limited knowledge overestimate their competence, whilst the actually knowledgeable question themselves often .
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge".
+

3/16
*#SelfServingBias*
A very interesting bias wherein we credit our successes to purely ourselves, but when things go awry we cite luck & external forces .
Rings any bells?
Basically a defence mechanism to protect our self esteem & eventually from personal responsibility.

4/16
* #ConfirmationBias *
We all favour ideas & beliefs that affirm to our existing ones' , rarely being open to contradictory opinions .
(Especially in markets !! 😬) Why?

Laziness? Mental block? Ego ?
No wonder, Birds of a feather flock together ... 😉

5/16
* #SunkCostBias *
As we know, sunk costs are irrecoverable , regardless of outcomes. (Eg Money expended towards R&D for a molecule which doesn't work out)
But this actually extends in any investment we make - Time,Money, Effort, Relationships ...😏
Interesting right?

@MotilalOswalAMC annual Wealth creation study is live now. One of the most anticipated financial event in a year.

This year is the 25th Wealth Study and kudos to @Raamdeo for his consistent annual efforts to continue this activity.

This year's theme is coming up with a checklist of 25 questions (checklist) to identify bottom-up stock picking

Infosys in 25 years has compounded its profit from 13 cr in 1995 to 16450 cr

Time is a friend of Good Companies ! What a saying. Compounding delivers it magic over a period of time.

TSMC $TSM projecting capital expenses of 25-28B USD in 2021. 80% allocated for advanced process tech, 3, 5, 7nm. 10% advanced packaging and mask making, 10% other. 2020 capex, originally slated at $15B, was over $17B. For context $AMD's entire revenue for 2020 estimated at $9.5B

Management sees a growing market and TSMC growing faster than the market, with a 2020-2025 CAGR of 10-15%. In 2019 capex was initially estimated at $10-11B and then revised up to $15B. They are expanding fast, and newer nodes are more capital intensive.

3nm looking good and has strong customer interest, production in 2H 2022.
All this, especially the capex, in line with suggestions Intel will be increasing their use of TSMC fabs, or else AMD making really large increases (or both), but they also project a lot of growth in phones

TSMC utilization rate is very high, and they expect it to remain high in Q1. They expect more revenue in Q1 than in Q4. Margin is hit by the weak USD and the large capex, but they still think a 50% gross margin is reasonable, long term.

Analyst on call surprised at raise in capex, says it is above consensus. Hmmm $INTC?

Sweden's elderly in 2020 recorded one of the lowest mortality rates in history.

Overall mortality rates in Sweden by age were excellent in 2020 and better than the 2015-2018 average mortality rates for nearly all age groups.

A deep dive into why 👇👇👇

Overall death numbers are meaningless without stratifying by age. Below, we have mortality rates from 2015-2020 by age groups 0-64, 65-79, 80-89, and 90+. The 65-79 group fared worst with ~3% inc. over 2015-18 average.

Amazingly, the 90+ group had lower mortality in 2020.

All age groups can be plotted on the same graph, but must be standardized since the range of values is so large (1 for 0-64 vs 200 for 90+)

Here, mortality rates are shown relative to 2018.

The most interesting observation (imo) is the significant drop in mortality rate in 2019 in all age groups.

Around 60% of all deaths in Sweden come from the 80+ age group. When mortality rates dropped 5% in 2019, this left a much larger than normal 80+ pop alive in 2020.

This lead to a swelling of the 80+ population in 2020 by 6.6%. This was by far the biggest percentage increase in one age group over the 5 year period of data

Pop. Deaths
2018 - 522k 54k
2019 - 536k 52k
2020 - 572k 59k

Exclusive: Alleged RCMP mole accused of selling secrets to kingpin money launderer and terror-financier’s network | https://t.co/6oS5jHrnWQ https://t.co/evpm0Eh9S6 @CullenInquiryBC

1. I'll unpack a few points from this ongoing investigation by Global News into the Ortis case. The allegations against Ortis, from my investigation, are very international in scope, and could not be more relevant to the work of @CullenInquiryBC

2. If you have the impression that Ottawa has been asleep at the wheel with issues of transnational drug cartels using Canadian cities as giant money laundering vehicles, that would be partly correct, in my years of expertise. But the Ortis case alleges something else going on.

3. What my investigation shows, is the case against Cameron Ortis -- who was one of the most influential leaders in RCMP and top intel official -- is he was allegedly corrupt and compromised a Five Eyes probe of a global kingpin money launderer.

4. In order to understand the case, it can't be stressed enough how important the Altaf Khanani money laundering organization is to drug trafficking and terrorist attacks worldwide, according to the DEA.

Cont👇
26/ If you have paid AA tax between 1995-22 it is likely your charges will be lower in 1995 than in 2015 scheme. This is because the AA rules are particularly unfair to members of 2 schemes. If your AA charges go down during any of the remedy period, you can claim a refund

27/ It does not matter if you paid cash for AA or used scheme pays, if you overpaid these charges can be refunded. If you charges go up (unlikely unless you have “MHO” status) you may have to pay back tax. There is usually a statutory limit of 4 years for paying underpaid tax.

28/ This limit of 4 yrs of underpaid tax was referenced in the consultation document 👇, although the position is less clear in the full consultation response. We will need to see the final regulations to understand the implications.

29/ The consultation document also stated that members who choose reformed 2015 in retirement & incurred AA charges would be “compensated”. Again detail in is less clear in the full consultation response. We will need to see the final regulations to understand the implications.

30/An important area are “contingent decisions”. Many members took decisions i.e. “opting out” of the scheme based on the age discrimination. @theBMA argued certain cases should automatically be compensated vs having to prove this on a “case by case” basis

A simple thread to understand the meaning of investment cycle (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) in the economy and why it is important?
Which sectors can benefit in such cycle and why?

Do share if you find it useful.

1/n

What is Gross Fixed Capital Formation?

There are essentially 2 methods to calculate GDP of a country. Both methods ultimately tries to measure the total value of goods and services produced in the country during a particular period.

2/n

1. Income Method of GDP calculation adds up INCOME EARNED from all goods and services produced in the country.

2. Expenditure method of GDP calculation takes into account all purchases of goods and services in the country.

3/n

Expenditure method adds up all
consumer spending(C), government spending (G),
business investment spending (I), and net exports (x-m)

Formula:
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M) is the formula for EXPENDITURE method of GDP.

4/n

The “I” (investment) component in the above includes, business investments in creating new assets and spending by households (not government) on new houses also gets included in Investment.

This is known as "Gross Fixed Capital Formation"

5/n

This interview from @OSchiffey has great quotes that directly refute the nonsense that many privacy advocates spout about how the death of cross-site tracking will help ad-supported publishers on the open web. https://t.co/bj1gWPKOei 1/

The interview is with a senior leader at a major global ad agency. Someone who actually knows what advertisers are talking about, where they are directing their spending, and what the future trends will be. Not a privacy advocate who knows nothing about the advertising market 2/

First, privacy advocates spread misinformation and bad research data that ITP hasn't hurt publisher revenue and/or hasn't affected advertiser spending. And yet here is an unequivocal answer as to the impact of ITP on advertiser spending. 3/

The agency exec also clearly shares the opinion that the end of 3PC will push money away from the open web, exactly what privacy advocates claim won't happen. 4/

She also talks about how context matters, but so does audience. Audience targeting is effectively dead without 3PC and non-Chrome browsers are doing nothing to change this. 5/

You see so many people on Twitter saying

"Infosys ADR is up 5% today."

"ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank ADR ended highly positive today. Good move coming up for Banknifty."

Have you ever wondered what is ADR? You're not alone.

Time for a thread. 👇👇👇

1/ Back in the early 1900s, people were buying shares in foreign countries in the respective country's exchanges (many still do).

There are few issues with that:

- Complexity of the purchase
- Currency conversion issues
- Difficulty in transactions

and so on.

2/ JP Morgan saw this, and thought

"what if people could trade foreign companies

- in our country
- in our currency
- but without the companies having to list themselves here?"

ADR was born.

3/ ADR stands for American Depository Receipts.

It's like a share certificate, issued by a U.S depository bank (like CDSL here), but on a foreign company.

Usually one ADR unit represents one share of the foreign company.

4/ Here's how it works.

The depository bank buys the foreign company shares in the foreign exchange.

This depository bank holds the purchased shares as inventory.

It issues respective ADR for domestic trading.

The ADR is issued & traded in US Dollars.

Today we're gonna talk about profits. They come from stock! #AdamSmith reminds us that stock is any resource paid for in advance when doing business. In general, profits and wages don't move together. (I.ix.1–2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

As stock goes up, there's more of it to employ more workers (by paying them or providing machines for them to work or both). This raises wages! But new stock competes with existing stock, which tends to lower profit. (I.ix.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

If you thought figuring out the average wages of labor was complicated, don't even think about trying to figure out the average profit of stock. Basically impossible. Luckily, the rate of interest tends to vary with the profits of stock. (I.ix.3–4) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Lots of laws have tried to control interest rates and stop usury. They've all failed to do either. (I.ix.5–9) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Profits and wages rising together is unusual, but it happens. In particular, in new colonies. (I.ix.11) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Attended a clubhouse talk on:

"Common Investing mistakes" hosted by
Hena Mehta @hena1220 co-founder of Basis with
Aditi Kothari Vice Chairperson DSPMF &
Kalpen Parekh @KalpenParekh MD-CEO DSPMF
moderated by Dipika Jaikishan @dipikajaikishan

🧵 on key learnings:
@getbasis
@dspmf

A common investing mistake:

Taking out money when market falls!

Reason:

~ It's difficult to get in once you get out

~ If you manage to get in you will be late and lose the rise in the market.

Don't exit when market falls, neither stop the SIPs.

What's important for an investor?

Avoid being a bad investor; than worrying about being a good investor.

Basic mistake in investing:

Not knowing why we are investing!

We often invest because:

~ Others are doing it
~ We see the particular asset class is popular

But we don't understand the asset class

Wrong reasons for investing in asset class!

Gold : Because of family culture or as a symbol of inter-generational wealth.

FD: Because it's safe

Equity : To double money quickly!

🚨🚨🚚🚛🚨🚨email from Robert Hardy @RobHardyFR8 whose Customs Clearance Consortium is part of govt’s £200m scheme for GB-NI border warns of “huge shortage” of customs agents. Via @SJAMcBride /1

https://t.co/WoLWdI8LoF

He adds: “Export from GB with import to Ireland [is] amongst the most complicated...We expect heavy volumes at Dover from tonight as GB exports start to ramp up and many transporters do not have transit and EU clearance in place.” ...remember @BrandonLewis ‘no border’ tweet 🙄/2

He then warns - as @RHARichardB had warned - that the issue is companies providing poorly cleansed/matched data...and announces CCC doesn’t have capacity to raise docs in mainland EU/3

This is example of what Biz needs to do when moving agri foods - hauliers and vets tell me there is still no solution from Defra/Daera on how to do multiple pickups that require export health certificates at each stop (not uncommon) /4

In the next week or two we’ll see how these issue play into supply chains - and the issue that trucks flow in a cycle, GB-NI/IE-GB...so you need enough returning to keep the flow going. /5

India’s largest lender SBI is gradually capturing the very lucrative unsecured personal loan(PL) market.

A thread 🧵

As per credit bureau CRIF Highmark Unsecured PL market has seen significant growth in recent years. This has been driven a lot by liquidity crunch due to lockdown and emergency medical needs.

Total unsecured PL portfolio as per CRIF was estimated to be at 4.1 lakh crore as on March 19. This increased to 6.5 lakh crore by March 21.

Interestingly, in spite of fintech and NBFC penetration, public sector banks still had majority share – they originated 50% of incremental unsecured PL loans in FY 21 by value.

SBI’s PL portfolio during the period also increased from 1 lakh crore in March 19 to 2.4 lakh crore. This growth was driven by their Xpress credit product which uses credit bureau and other data to sanction loans within just eight minutes!

Want to know why Bill Gates has acquired 242,000 acres of farmland across the U.S.? That's more than anyone.

Let's explore the aspects of the End Game plan.
Agenda 21

A