Cont👇
26/ If you have paid AA tax between 1995-22 it is likely your charges will be lower in 1995 than in 2015 scheme. This is because the AA rules are particularly unfair to members of 2 schemes. If your AA charges go down during any of the remedy period, you can claim a refund

27/ It does not matter if you paid cash for AA or used scheme pays, if you overpaid these charges can be refunded. If you charges go up (unlikely unless you have “MHO” status) you may have to pay back tax. There is usually a statutory limit of 4 years for paying underpaid tax.

28/ This limit of 4 yrs of underpaid tax was referenced in the consultation document 👇, although the position is less clear in the full consultation response. We will need to see the final regulations to understand the implications.

29/ The consultation document also stated that members who choose reformed 2015 in retirement & incurred AA charges would be “compensated”. Again detail in is less clear in the full consultation response. We will need to see the final regulations to understand the implications.

30/An important area are “contingent decisions”. Many members took decisions i.e. “opting out” of the scheme based on the age discrimination. @theBMA argued certain cases should automatically be compensated vs having to prove this on a “case by case” basis

Attended a clubhouse talk on:

"Common Investing mistakes" hosted by
Hena Mehta @hena1220 co-founder of Basis with
Aditi Kothari Vice Chairperson DSPMF &
Kalpen Parekh @KalpenParekh MD-CEO DSPMF
moderated by Dipika Jaikishan @dipikajaikishan

🧵 on key learnings:
@getbasis
@dspmf

A common investing mistake:

Taking out money when market falls!

Reason:

~ It's difficult to get in once you get out

~ If you manage to get in you will be late and lose the rise in the market.

Don't exit when market falls, neither stop the SIPs.

What's important for an investor?

Avoid being a bad investor; than worrying about being a good investor.

Basic mistake in investing:

Not knowing why we are investing!

We often invest because:

~ Others are doing it
~ We see the particular asset class is popular

But we don't understand the asset class

Wrong reasons for investing in asset class!

Gold : Because of family culture or as a symbol of inter-generational wealth.

FD: Because it's safe

Equity : To double money quickly!

12 charts every investor should know:

1. History of the stock market in one chart

2. The Psychology of a Market Cycle

3. "Experts" will always give you smart reasons to sell in the short term, but you will regret it in the long term

4. Largest companies by market cap (1960-2022)

5. Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world

1/ A thread on $APY @apyfinance. I believe this could become a major DeFi bluechip, and I’ve been waiting since the 10th Feb for the price to settle before posting this! But it just won’t. So I’ll post it now, but please go slowly if you buy it. It just did a 5x in 2 days!

2/ So the APY platform is a yield farming aggregator that uses a single pool of liquidity and automatic rebalances the portfolio among different strategies to optimise risk adjusted yield revenues. It is basically like having an automated fund manager managing your portfolio.

3/ Today, if for example, you have funds in a yearn vault and you realise another vault launched with better returns, it can cost 100’s of dollars in ETH fees to switch between them. For anyone not investing huge amounts, this makes switching strategies completely unpractical.

4/On APY, with a single deposit, users funds will be spread across multiple yield farming strategies and automatically rebalance over time to optimise risk-adjusted returns. So users won’t need to keep track & switch between strategies (+pay for fees!) to optimise yield over time

5/ The genius step here is that the $APY algorithm will track not only the strategies % yields, but also risk scores taking into account financial, liquidity or smart contract risks, so funds will be re-allocated over time in order to maximise yield but also manage risk.

Want to know why Bill Gates has acquired 242,000 acres of farmland across the U.S.? That's more than anyone.

Let's explore the aspects of the End Game plan.
Agenda 21

A

The Review: GW 19 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at the double GW gone by, De Bruyne and Vardy replacements in detail:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Before I start, I'd like to introduce you to this game called Fantasy5. It’s free to enter, with a £10k weekly prize. All you have to do is to pick 5 players that you think will beat their Fantasy points target. I find it to be a lot of fun! Link

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

Q: Is Son the obvious De Bruyne replacement? Is it worth doubling up on Spurs attack and if not, who to choose if picking one?

I think we’re at that point where avoiding Heung Min Son despite having the option to get him for De Bruyne if you don’t own him already has to be...

... classified as overthinking. I say that because Son over the past three GWs is top for xG and big chances in the league which is incredible given that Son featured only thrice during that period while some other players played four times. Son is averaging two big chances...

How you know you've made it:

You get to stop doing business with assholes.

No asshole clients.

No asshole partners.

No asshole investors.

In the early days, when you're hungry, you have to do what you have to do.

Bend over backwards for customers.

Deal with disrespectful partners.

Take investments from folks who don't have the same vision as you do and bend the terms to their liking.

As you build enough experience and wealth this slowly shifts.

And you can start firing the bad customers.

Breaking up with the bad partners.

And buying out the bad investors.

This is different than F U money.

F U money is the next phase...

It happens a few million later when you become one of the assholes.

Tip:

Get F U money but don't become an asshole.

This transformation happens through leverage.

When we start, we have none. Others have it all.

You have no negotiation power because they have everything YOU need and YOU are a commodity.

After a couple years of ads telling men to do laundry turned out, weirdly, to not boost fertility, Korea is back to financial incentives, which prior research has shown do work but at a very high price.

Korea is adding a $275/month allowance for the first year of a baby's life, increasing the pregnancy medical benefit by $400 or so, and providing an $1800 baby bonus. There's also some unspecified benefits related to leave and high-parity families.

The thing to understand is that these efforts are not *actually* huge. Quoting things in won gives you big numbers so it's easy to lose sight of the fact that we're not talking about enough money to actually offset a large share of wages.

I'm a fan of baby bonuses and first-year benefits. They're probably the most bang for the buck.

But this isn't actually all that many bucks!

These benefits add up to about $5,500 in benefits. A similar program compared to average incomes in the US would be about $8,700.

@JonathanTurley suggests the founders would not react so quickly against a president who led an insurrection. Washington led an army of 13,000 people against a small group of farmers who wouldn't pay their taxes on whiskey.

One founder actually did lead an insurrection. His name was Aaron Burr. He was arrested and charged with treason. He walked on technical reasons and was already out of office so impeachment was not the right option, but he ended up in exile for years afterward.

(Beautifully, while in exile Burr lived in a house on Craven Street in London.) Turley also says that Trump's incitement to insurrection was protected speech. This is beyond ludicrous and shows a lack of understanding of the law that would get him kicked out of any law school.

As Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes laid out in his famous ruling on this matter in Schenck v. United States in 1919 in which he said there was no right to falsely shout fire in a crowded theater...

"The question in every case is whether the words used are used in such circumstances and are of such a nature as to create a clear and present danger that they will bring about the substantive evils that Congress has a right to prevent."

@BylineTimes
1. The £22 billion Test and Trace system had a ‘relatively small’ effect on the R-number, a new evaluation from the Department of Health and Social Care has found.
2. EXCLUSIVE Firm Chaired by Government Procurement Advisor Awarded £38 Million Contract –

1/ There are a ton of books about Financial & Fundamental Analysis, Scuttlebutt and Technical Analysis. But there aren't many books 'taking risk'.

Among the few that exist, 'Zurich Axioms', written in 1985, is the best. Here are my key takeaways from the book.

2/ A bit about Max Gunther's (The Author) background. He was an Anglo-American journalist and writer, who wrote 26 Books.

His father, Franz Heinrich, was the New York Head of Schweizerischer Bankverein, which later merged into the famous Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS).

3/ The 'Zurich Axioms' were a set of unwritten rules followed by a informal group of Swiss Bankers and Traders who used to socialize around Wall Street after World War II. Mr. Heinrich was one of the founding members.

Max Gunter formalied these 'Axioms' by writing about them.

4/ There are 12 'Major Axioms' and 16 'Minor Axioms' (Corollary to the Major Axioms) in the book.

But remember, this is MY key takeaways from the book and not an exact summary. So you might find quotes, phrases and links inserted here and there by me (Not from the Author).

5/ Axiom #1: In order to earn returns, you must take risk. Risk will make you worry.

Risk-taking and worrying go hand-in-hand. If you're not worried about an investment, you're not taking risk.

Spend half your energy towards earning an income and the rest towards speculation.

This is your daily pension announcement. Lots of you have heard back from your MLA with the the statement below👇. This one is from @JasonCoppingAB, but they are all the same. You need to go back at your MLAs HARD because this is some Stalin level disinformation. #AbLeg #abpoli

In no particular order I will run through the errors:

1. "the Alberta Government ...holds the liability of the ATRF plan.."

Absolutely, unequivocaly false. Read the Teachers' Pension Plan Act. Any liabilities are paid off 49% by the GOA/51% by the teachers. #AbLeg #abpoli

This is a risk shared plan, teachers pick up 51% of the financial risk. This is a benefit to the taxpayers. Not all plans in Canada are risk shared but ATRF sure as hell is.

(even the Fraser Institute admits this) #AbLeg #handsoffmypension

If @JasonCoppingAB would read the latest ATRF Annual Report he would see that we (teachers 51%/49% GOA) are currently paying off a deficiency that is equal to 3.28% of pay. #AbLeg #handsoffmypension

2. Next false statement: he says that section 3.8(c), giving AIMCo the right to refuse instructions from ATRF, is "a standard provision" in these types of agreements. Nope.
Just nope. #AbLeg #handsoffmypension This is a backdoor overreach into the ATRF's affairs.

Way to #Financial freedom

1) Rule of 72 (Double Your Money)
2) Rule of 114 (Triple)
3) Rule of 144 (Quadruple)
4) Rule of 70 (Inflation)
5) 4% Withdrawal Rule
6) 100 - Minus Age Rule
7) 10, 5, 3 Rule
8) 50-30-20 Rule
9) 3X Emergency Rule
10) 40% EMI Rule
11) Life Insurance Rule

1) Rule of 72
No. of yrs required to double your money at a given rate, U just divide 72 by interest rate
Eg, if U want to know how long it will take to double your money at 8% interest, divide 72 by 8 and get 9 yrs

At 6% rate, it will take 12 yrs
At 9% rate, it will take 8 yrs

3) Rule of 144

No. of years required to, quadruple your money at a given rate, U just divide 144 by interest rate.

For eg, if U want to know how long it will take to quadruple your money at 12% interest, divide 144 by 12 and get 12 yrs

At a 6% interest rate, it will take 24yrs

4) Rule of 70

Divide 70 by the current inflation rate to know how fast the value of your investment will get reduced to half its present value.

The inflation rate of 7% will reduce the value of your money to half in 10 years.

5) 4% Rule for Financial Freedom

Corpus Reqd- 25*Annual Expenses

Eg- the annual expense is 500,000 then the corpus required to retire is 1.25 cr.

Put 50% into fixed income & 50% into equity.

Withdraw 4% every yr, i.e.5 lac.

This rule works for 96% of the time in 30 yr period

We have a habit of looking west and thinking what they do must be right. With all the craziness going on in the US capital markets, I thought it will be a good time to share some of the reasons why India is way better in terms of capital market regulations. 1/n

In US, hedge funds can leverage unlimited & run positions worth hundreds of $billions bringing in systemic risk. In India, no one can hold overnight positions more than ~5 times leverage (SPAN+Exposure for F&O, VAR+ELM for stocks). Even intraday leverages are now capped 2/n

In US your stock holdings are held by the brokers (held in book or street name, also the reason for the large stock lending market). If a broker goes down, your securities is at risk as well. In India, they sit in your Demat with NSDL/CDSL, ring-fenced from any broker risk 3/n

In the US your broker has an option to send the order placed on the trading platform to the exchange or a high-frequency trading firm that pays for the order. As you’d guess most orders are sent to HFT firms. In India, all order matching has to happen on the exchanges 4/n

In US a broker can act almost like a bank. Hold your funds for as long, take risk & lend them to other clients as well. In India, a broker can lend only their own funds and not client funds. Also, all unutilized funds need to be returned back once a quarter to the client bank 5/n

A potential problem is looming, and the media are pursuing a new story that builds on the following chain of reasoning: 1) higher inflation is coming;2) if CBs increase interest rates debts will explode and recession may ensue; 3) CBs are caught in an impossible dilemma 1/12

It´s perhaps too complex for some tweets, but.. Registered inflation this year is bound to be higher than present forecasts, resulting from one-off price spikes and base effects That will not start a sustained high inflation process, but temporary higher inflation is possible 2/

For example, Euro Area inflation increased suddenly from several months at -0.3% to +0.9% in Jan. This jump resulted mostly from several base effects, especially the change to German VAT. Inflation expectations increasing but higher in the US than in the EA 3/

The major one-off base effect will come from oil prices that decreased abysmally in March 2020 and have recovered. Some estimates put US inflation in April reaching 4%! After vaccinations, later in the year, pent-up consumer demand will also increase prices.4/

Despite the increased spending of accumulated savings, the savings rate will remain higher than before Covid for precautionary reasons (Fig 1). No permanent spending spree will materialise. Wages will remain subdued for a while (Fig2). Higher but not high inflation is coming.5/

What is the difference between financial econometrics, econometrics and quantitative finance?
@GARP_Risk @CQFInstitute @SOActuaries

Financial Econometrics basically utilizes Financial Market Data to build mathematical and statistical financial models and later analyze the statistical significance and make predictions.

It is generally used by risk managers and economists to predict(forecast) and study the return market characteristics. GARCH models and other Time Series Models are used to study the pattern of Return Volatility Clusters, Tail Dependence Events, Covariances,

Heavy Tails Phenomenon, Serial Correlations, Mean Reversions, Random Walks, White Noise Disturbances, Risk Migrations, Contingent Claim Volatility Smiles, Probability of Defaults, Credit Rating Matrix Volatility, Value at Risk, Deviations from Normality and other prices of assets

Model Validation, Cross-Validation and Selection are also topics of interest that fall within the domain of Financial Econometrics. It is a field which is more dependent on Time Series (inter-temporal) Analysis using data spread over a lookback period.

Layman’s explanation to PE Ratio and how it works.
A long thread! Do Bookmark this for patient reading.

#investing #investors #PEratio

1/ PE (Price Earning) ratio is one of the most important metric used by investors to make decisions while picking up stocks. But, more often than not, it is grossly misunderstood.
Let us decode this metric.

2/ Table of contents
•How to decide what to buy?
oCase A: Case A: Fresh Apple vs Stale Apple
oCase B: Costlier Fresh Apple v/s Cheaper Fresh Apple
oCase C: Apple vs Orange
•How to read PE ratio
•How is PE Ratio misunderstood?
•When will PE Ratio not work?

3/ How do you decide, what to buy?
Case A: Fresh Apple vs Stale Apple

You go to a market and buy an apple. You have a choice to make.
Apple ‘A’ is fresh and juicy. Apple ‘B’ is clearly stale. Apple ‘A’ costs you ₹.20 while Apple ‘B’ costs you only ₹.10.