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THREAD: Who are the rising stars of Chinese elite politics in the central Party-State bureaucracy?
For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed last year's ministerial-level promotions to posts in Beijing
TLDR: Ties to Xi Jinping—or a Xi ally—are very helpful! (1/14)
https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2
Seven politicians were promoted to ministerial-level positions in central Party agencies last year
All are likely to feature on the next Central Committee selected at the 2022 Party Congress
Some could make the CCP's elite 25-person Politburo (2/14)
https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2
Likeliest for the Politburo is Meng Xiangfeng, new Executive Deputy Director of the CCP General Office
He would replace Xi ally Ding Xuexiang as CCP chief-of-staff if Ding is promoted further in 2022
Meng worked under Xi allies Cai Qi in Hangzhou and Chen Xi in Liaoning (3/14)
Less likely for the Politburo but still important is Jiang Jinquan, new Director of the CCP Policy Research Office
He replaces 5th-ranked leader Wang Huning who led the Party's brains trust for 18 years
Wang remains prominent and will be <68 in 2022, so he'll stay around (4/14)
Other notable central Party promotions include Li Shulei and Liang Yanshun, who both assisted Xi when he led the Central Party School from 2007-2012
Li is a political conservative who is said to be quite close with Xi, even drafting his 2014 speech on culture and art (5/14)
For @MacroPoloChina I analyzed last year's ministerial-level promotions to posts in Beijing
TLDR: Ties to Xi Jinping—or a Xi ally—are very helpful! (1/14)
https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2
Seven politicians were promoted to ministerial-level positions in central Party agencies last year
All are likely to feature on the next Central Committee selected at the 2022 Party Congress
Some could make the CCP's elite 25-person Politburo (2/14)
https://t.co/kO2A0Efyq2
Likeliest for the Politburo is Meng Xiangfeng, new Executive Deputy Director of the CCP General Office
He would replace Xi ally Ding Xuexiang as CCP chief-of-staff if Ding is promoted further in 2022
Meng worked under Xi allies Cai Qi in Hangzhou and Chen Xi in Liaoning (3/14)
Less likely for the Politburo but still important is Jiang Jinquan, new Director of the CCP Policy Research Office
He replaces 5th-ranked leader Wang Huning who led the Party's brains trust for 18 years
Wang remains prominent and will be <68 in 2022, so he'll stay around (4/14)
Other notable central Party promotions include Li Shulei and Liang Yanshun, who both assisted Xi when he led the Central Party School from 2007-2012
Li is a political conservative who is said to be quite close with Xi, even drafting his 2014 speech on culture and art (5/14)
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1/OK, data mystery time.
This New York Times feature shows China with a Gini Index of less than 30, which would make it more equal than Canada, France, or the Netherlands. https://t.co/g3Sv6DZTDE
That's weird. Income inequality in China is legendary.
Let's check this number.
2/The New York Times cites the World Bank's recent report, "Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World".
The report is available here:
3/The World Bank report has a graph in which it appears to show the same value for China's Gini - under 0.3.
The graph cites the World Development Indicators as its source for the income inequality data.
4/The World Development Indicators are available at the World Bank's website.
Here's the Gini index: https://t.co/MvylQzpX6A
It looks as if the latest estimate for China's Gini is 42.2.
That estimate is from 2012.
5/A Gini of 42.2 would put China in the same neighborhood as the U.S., whose Gini was estimated at 41 in 2013.
I can't find the <30 number anywhere. The only other estimate in the tables for China is from 2008, when it was estimated at 42.8.
This New York Times feature shows China with a Gini Index of less than 30, which would make it more equal than Canada, France, or the Netherlands. https://t.co/g3Sv6DZTDE
That's weird. Income inequality in China is legendary.
Let's check this number.
2/The New York Times cites the World Bank's recent report, "Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World".
The report is available here:
3/The World Bank report has a graph in which it appears to show the same value for China's Gini - under 0.3.
The graph cites the World Development Indicators as its source for the income inequality data.
4/The World Development Indicators are available at the World Bank's website.
Here's the Gini index: https://t.co/MvylQzpX6A
It looks as if the latest estimate for China's Gini is 42.2.
That estimate is from 2012.
5/A Gini of 42.2 would put China in the same neighborhood as the U.S., whose Gini was estimated at 41 in 2013.
I can't find the <30 number anywhere. The only other estimate in the tables for China is from 2008, when it was estimated at 42.8.
