BC TRADING
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Today we're gonna talk about profits. They come from stock! #AdamSmith reminds us that stock is any resource paid for in advance when doing business. In general, profits and wages don't move together. (I.ix.1–2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

 As stock goes up, there's more of it to employ more workers (by paying them or providing machines for them to work or both). This raises wages! But new stock competes with existing stock, which tends to lower profit. (I.ix.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
If you thought figuring out the average wages of labor was complicated, don't even think about trying to figure out the average profit of stock. Basically impossible. Luckily, the rate of interest tends to vary with the profits of stock. (I.ix.3–4) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Lots of laws have tried to control interest rates and stop usury. They've all failed to do either. (I.ix.5–9) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Profits and wages rising together is unusual, but it happens. In particular, in new colonies. (I.ix.11) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Investing advice from Smith: It's easier to make money if you've got some. The trick is to get some. (I.ix.11) #ThanksWeGuess #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Some things that keep wealth low: neglecting/despising foreign commerce (restricts the extent of the market) and neglecting the protection of the rights of the poor and small business owners (gives the rich monopoly powers). (I.ix.15) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
For example, the "barbarous nations" that overran the western Roman empire (yes, he means the Germans) left the enforcement of contracts to the parties subject to them, contributing to the stagnant economy. (I.ix.16) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets https://t.co/OCf1TNHiV0
The ordinary rate of profit must compensate for the risk that the investment fails in the same way that the ordinary rate of interest has to compensate for the risk of default by borrowers. (I.ix.18–19) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Only the amount paid in excess of what compensates for risk is "neat or clear" profit. Gross profit is the whole shebang. (I.ix.18) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
When a country gets so rich that it has employed the full quantity of stock that can be used, it will become fashionable to be in business as it is to dress according to the fashion of the times. (I.ix.20) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
https://t.co/Is22ZUKwAE
That awkward feeling when you spell awkward aukward. (I.ix.20) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets #YesWeKnowItWasADifferentTime
Employers and merchants blame increasing prices on high wages, but Smith says high profits are much more to blame. Wages increase prices arithmetically, but increasing profits work like compound interest. (I.ix.24) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
You'd never know it from listening to the merchants and masters, though—"They are silent with regard to the pernicious effects of their own gains. They complain only of those of other people." (I.ix.24) #SurplusOfShade #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
Tune in tomorrow as we, the Smithtweeters, try to get some love from @MikeRoweWorks as #AdamSmith explores seasonal work, #DirtyJobs, and side gigs.

More from @AdamSmithWorks

@AdamSmithWorks
@AdamSmithWorks
@adamsmithworks
Here we go! Tweeting our way through #WealthOfNations! It’s a marathon, not a sprint, so be sure to stretch, stay hydrated, and keep a steady pace. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

That’s one heck of a first sentence, Dr. Smith. No dithering here. The division of labor is the secret sauce that increases productivity. (I.i.1) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

We always forget the pin factory comes this early and that Smith looks at it not because pins are important (though they are!) but because it’s a small industry that you can look at all at once.(I.i.3) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

How many pins can the SmithTweeters make in a day? How bad do you want them to be? (I.i.3) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Do you think the pin guys were all “Dude, we let you observe our work, told you how many pins in a pound, showed you every step in the process...and you call us a ‘trifling manufacture’? Not cool, Smith!” (I.i.4) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
SOCIETY
@AdamSmithWorks
@AdamSmithWorks
@adamsmithworks
Wages, profits, and rents have “natural rates” regulated by the general conditions of the society in which they exist. (I.vii.1) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

When the price of any commodity = price of rent + profit + labor + price of getting it to market, the commodity is sold at its “natural price.” (I.vii.4–5) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

And that all means the commodity has been sold for what it is worth—what it really costs. (I.vii.5) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

The price for which a commodity is sold ought to include a seller’s profit, because that’s how sellers pay themselves, just like they pay the wages of the laborers who work for them, who get their goods to market, etc. (I.vii.5) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweet

Nerds among you may recognize the concept of economic profit here: it matters to the owners of stock whether they could have done better by using their stock elsewhere, not just whether they covered their costs. (I.vii.5) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets #WeLoveNerds
SOCIETY
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@AdamSmithWorks
@AdamSmithWorks
@adamsmithworks
In yesterday’s discussion of colonies, #AdamSmith was really good on a lot of issues—particularly on condemning murdering Indigenous people, despoiling colonies in search of gold that ain't there, and then pretending you're doing it all for God. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Today, Smithketeers, will not be such a feel-good day. You will not be heartened. You might want to pour a cup of tea. Or something much stronger. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Smith starts by noting that the colonies of developed nations where the “natives easily give place to the new settlers” get rich and cultured faster than anywhere else.

That phrase “give place to” cloaks a lot of horrors. (IV.vii.b.1) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

The reason colonies can do so well (for everyone but the Indigenous peoples, that is) is that settlers import the social, political, and technical know-how from the old country. (IV.vii.b.2) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

There’s lots of land, which means you need lots of workers and are willing to pay them high wages.
Workers + land + money ➡ kids!
And more people ➡ prosperity. (IV.vii.b.2–3) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
SOCIETY
@AdamSmithWorks
@AdamSmithWorks
@adamsmithworks
OK! Who's ready to talk at great length and in great detail about prices? #AdamSmith, that's who! (I.v) #BuckleUp because this is the first of three chapters Smith prepped us for yesterday. (I.v) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

We're about get into some #LaborTheoryOfValue. (I.v.1–18) We, the SmithTweeters, are firmly on board with the #MarginalRevolution (and we are fans of @MarginalRevolt). But Smith's theory is more complex than is often recognized. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets #ValueHowDoesItWork

The caricature version of the #LaborTheoryOfValue is that the longer you work on a thing, the more it must be worth. This is obviously wrong, and Smith (and Marx, btw) would agree that it's wrong. (I.v.1–18) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

(We know this version of the #LaborTheoryOfValue is wrong because we once carved a giant statue of #AdamSmith out of haggis. Took us hours. No one wanted to buy it. Go know!)

Again: We think the #LaborTheoryOfValue as it's actually presented is wrong, too, but we should at least understand how it's wrong and where it's right. (I.v.1–18) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
SOCIETY
@AdamSmithWorks
@AdamSmithWorks
@adamsmithworks
Smith Fans! It’s the conclusion of chapter 11 of #WealthOfNations!! We made it! (1.xi.p.2) https://t.co/Tb0JBqJs9E
#WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Improvements make things cheaper, but they also raise the rent of land, which makes landlords richer, and lets them purchase more labor. Neglect and decay, though, make everyone poorer. (1.xi.p.2–6) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Smith says landowners won't mislead the public about what’s in the public interest, because their interest aligns with the public interest. Also they're lazy and kind of dumb, because they don't have to do anything to make their money. (I.xi.p.8) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

The kerfuffle over the Enclosure Acts might have given him second thoughts. (1.xi.p.8) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Laborers suffer the most when a society is in decline. But they are incapable (‽‽‽‽‽) of understanding how they are tied to society at large. (1.xi.p.9) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets
SOCIETY

More from Trading

Anton Spisak
Anton Spisak
@AntonSpisak
Having now taken a few days to digest the detail of the UK-EU agreement, here's a couple of observations from me on the deal, what it means, how we got here, & where it might take future UK-EU relations.

(A long thread)

First, let's be clear that negotiating a deal in 9 months, against the odds, and in the middle of a pandemic, is an achievement. It's too easy to underestimate the difficulty of negotiating over the screen for 4 months, from Mar-June, and under enormous pressure. /2

Both @DavidGHFrost & @MichelBarnier and their teams, deserve a lot of credit for sticking up with it in hard circumstances, often with lacking political clarity, & high stakes.

This shouldn't preclude us, or MPs and MEPs, from looking critically at the deal on the table. /3

That we have a deal is a result of the UK & EU having found a way to protect their core defensive interests.

From the EU's view, integrity of the single market is preserved with level-playing field obligations which go virtually beyond any other 3rd-country (even the Swiss). /4

For its part, the UK has negotiated down EU ask on dynamic alignment on state aid; eliminated any references to EU law; removed any role for the ECJ (NB not in the whole future relationship, due to EU law in NI Protocol); and preserved its right to control access to waters. /5
TRADING
Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
THREAD ON DELTA (The most important GREEK)

Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.

There are 4 primary greeks:

Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega

In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)

Delta measures the rate of change of options price based on the directional movement of the underlying.

So this means we can know in advance (theoretically) how much an option will move with the underlying & so we can prepare our strategies accordingly. (2/n)

Value of delta varies between 0 & 1 for calls and -1 & 0 for puts. This figure tells how much an option price will change, when the underlying moves 1 point. So example a delta of .2 of call indicates that for every 1 point change in the underlying, the price will move .2 (3/n)

For option writers who want to trade in neutral strategies like straddle, strangle, ratios, calendar etc, delta can be very helpful. So be it any complex strategy, knowing the NET DELTA can give you an idea of how your strategy will perform in different scenarios. (4/n)

Net delta is just the sum of the deltas of all the bull options (call+ & put-) minus the bear options (call- & put+).

So if we can track this, we will always be in the know of how much exposed our position is. It makes it easier then to adjust our position. (5/n)
TRADING
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Sajal Kapoor
Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue
On this auspicious day of #GuruPurnima, happy to share an easy to read and an exceptionally worthwhile investment. I plan to make a thread that will hopefully help us invest and live better. Thank you @awealthofcs 🙏🏻


Experience has taught me that less is always more when making investment decisions. Simplicity trumps complexity. Conventional gives you much better odds than exotic. A long-term process is more important than short-term outcomes.

And perspective goes much further than tactics. Tactics are useless to investors in a matter of days—sometimes in a matter of hours. But perspective is something that stays with the investor for a lifetime. It allows you to adapt to the changing market and economic landscape.

While keeping it simple won’t make it any easier to predict the future—no one has a crystal ball—it can give you the necessary capacity to make rational decisions, no matter what happens next.

Perspective is so important because, without it, even the most intelligent of investors can be ruined from a lack of self-awareness in their own abilities. Investors that fail to put the news or market moves into the proper context....[1/2]
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
12 TRADING SETUPS used by professional traders:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll learn in this thread:

1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy

Let's dive in ↓

1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):

The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.

Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.

Sell directional credit spreads with capped


@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data

Don't trade till 9:45 Am.

Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.

Check combined premium and put a stop on individual


@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)

This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.

To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high

or Below yesterday's day's
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , TRADING , ALL
Saurabh Bajaj
Saurabh Bajaj
@JigyasuInvestor
Saturday Thread Time.
Re-Read interview of Ed Seykota from @jackschwager
book "Market Wizards". It's the most philosophical interview among all interviews. Needs to re-read it over and over.
@vivbajaj Sir, a re-tweet would be highly appreciated.

1. Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible

2. The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system.

3. The profitability of trading systems seems to move in cycles. Periods during which trend-following systems are highly successful will lead to their increased popularity.

3.1 As the number of system users increases, and the markets shift from trending to directionless price action, these systems become unprofitable, and undercapitalized and inexperienced traders will get shaken out. Longevity is the key to success.

4. In order of importance to me are (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell.
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Andrew Chen
Andrew Chen
@andrewchen
👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!


This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context

Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?


One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.


The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.
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Andrey \uf8ff Azimov
Andrey  Azimov
@AndreyAzimov
The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

- Have a lot of emails in the waiting list
- Become #1 on PH
- Become #1 of HN or Reddit
- Have people that saing "I'll pay"
- Have a lot of free users

The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
100+: This has a potential.
50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
0+: People don't need it.

This is for a single time payment product. For a subscription probably it should be less because people hate subscription.

And obviously, you should have a lot of traffic like 3-5k+.

Here is a stat for my products (macOS apps) for the first 24h after the launch:
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Yoruba History - by NNP
Yoruba History - by NN...
@YorubaHistory
The Ife Primary Education Research Project (1970-1983).

aka

The Ife 6-Year Primary Project.


In 1970, as the Director of the Institute of Education of the then University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife), later Dean Faculty of Education, Prof. Babs Fafunwa & his team embarked on one of the most groundbreaking research projects in education for Yorubaland.


The aim of the project was to test the hypothesis that the best instructional medium for good concept formation at a very tender age is the mother tongue.

This was bolstered by the observation that “of all the continents and peoples of the world, it is only in Africa…

…that formal education is offered in a language that is foreign to the child.”

So, Yoruba was to be used & tested as an exclusive medium of passing information or instructions to a set of pupils.

The project was based on the premise that:

(a). the child will benefit culturally, socially, linguistically & cognitively.

(b). the child’s command of English will be improved if he is taught English as an entirely separate subject by a specialist teacher through the 6 years.
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Nicolas
Nicolas
@necolas
A brief analysis and comparison of the CSS for Twitter's PWA vs Twitter's legacy desktop website. The difference is dramatic and I'll touch on some reasons why.

Legacy site *downloads* ~630 KB CSS per theme and writing direction.

6,769 rules
9,252 selectors
16.7k declarations
3,370 unique declarations
44 media queries
36 unique colors
50 unique background colors
46 unique font sizes
39 unique z-indices

https://t.co/qyl4Bt1i5x


PWA *incrementally generates* ~30 KB CSS that handles all themes and writing directions.

735 rules
740 selectors
757 declarations
730 unique declarations
0 media queries
11 unique colors
32 unique background colors
15 unique font sizes
7 unique z-indices

https://t.co/w7oNG5KUkJ


The legacy site's CSS is what happens when hundreds of people directly write CSS over many years. Specificity wars, redundancy, a house of cards that can't be fixed. The result is extremely inefficient and error-prone styling that punishes users and developers.

The PWA's CSS is generated on-demand by a JS framework that manages styles and outputs "atomic CSS". The framework can enforce strict constraints and perform optimisations, which is why the CSS is so much smaller and safer. Style conflicts and unbounded CSS growth are avoided.
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Mitesh Patel
Mitesh Patel
@Mitesh_Engr
Again sharing bank nifty intraday weekly straddle. How to play by selling straddle.
Mostly will work on Monday to Wednesday. Sometimes on Friday.
Why to pay your money to learn this if u can get it here.
U need only practice.
Let’s go.

Say bank nifty future is at 32000.
Sell both 32000 call and put.
Considering current volatile market lest say premium on Monday morning is 350 on both sides.
Sold with 700 points combine premium.
If bank nifty will trade in narrow range say +\- 100 hold it.
If moving 200 points

then exit previous sold straddle. Sell new one. Let’s say BN moved +200
Now sell 32200. If bank nifty will move here within range then u will get profit through theta decay. Follow same procedure for next 150-200 pts move.

This is only for single straddle sell position.

Now in second case sell three straddle. 31900/32000/32100
In case of 100 points move no need to change.
If 200 + then future is 32200.
Exit 31900 and sell 31200 straddle.
If moving another 100 then exit 32000 and sell 32300. Continue same with 100 points move.
If no move then

it will consolidate between 32000-32200 or 32100 to 32300 and u will get theta decay.

This is for normal move. Sudden big move may come anytime. So keep SL in system.
If u r selling at 350-350 then keep SL in system 475 for both legs.
Practice it. No need to attend webinar.
BNF , MPATELOPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTIONSLEARNING


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