A small thread on intraday support resistance logics over time

The most common is Pivot , support and resistances calculated from the previous day's data

https://t.co/ILMjMay1zc

They can be calculated for daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Camarilla levels are also quite popular. This seemed to be the next best thing after the original pivots at one point of time.

https://t.co/JIO9Ou2NtQ
Over the years, many other technicians have tried to devise other methods to devise intraday support resistance points. In almost all cases, the previous days OHLC were used in some variation, in some cases today's OPEN was also used as an input
I have gone through almost all of the formulas. Some work on some days, some days it doesn't.
What struck me was that in each of the cases , we were using the OHLC and doing some maths with a multiplier/divider which WE/the trader thought fits the price action of the markets
This is the same as choosing a time period of an indicator and hope the market follows my choice of time frame to give me good trades. Like say a crossover of a 5/13 moving average, or a 14 period RSI or whatever.
These periods are determined by backtesting over a set of data and finding the best fit for that market.
Now the problem is, what has worked on the past set is on the past set. There is no guarantee that it will work in the future. As markets change, what do we do ?
We continuously change the timeframe based on the best fit on some backdata ? ( continuous optimization)

A few lines of code on python can do this ( choosing some X period of backdata, identifying the best fit and applying them the next day).
We can term it as ML, AI, neural net whatever, but the fact remains it's glorified curve fitting. Chances of such approach working are at best, random.
I walked on a completely different path after going through everything. Rather than backtesting, I decided to forward test. Small trades with my own money and posting the levels on twitter. If the levels did not work, the feedback on twitter would obviously be negative.
If the levels were of importance, then also twitter would provide me the required feedback from hundreds of traders.
Hence I started posting on twitter
Hence, you see the Ranges and Balance everyday. There is another element in this study which I so far have not posted, a BIAS. A BIAS is simply whether you should be bullish or bearish for the day. Will start posting that too from next week after I make the requisite changes
I have always believed in sharing codes or logic. But my experiences on social media have made me realise, that these codes gets repackaged/pirated and sold/used. The same people then come after me including the self- proclaimed quants.
So no free lunch ( free open code), if someone is that smart let him/her work in identifying how I am doing this. I will not utter a single word on the construction as some very smart people on my twitter timeline can then work in deciphering the code / approach.
From next week, will be posting the the levels with BIAS.
Will also write a detailed article/manual on how to use the levels in intraday trading .

Thank you for reading through my rant :)

More from Subhadip Nandy

The most important question now on the mind of all analysts and traders. Is this a bear market rally or is this the start of a bull move. Retweeting this as I will need a few tweets to explain my view


Everyone knows the HH-HL or LH-LL as per Dow theory. This can be a bit confusing on how one marks the Highs and Lows. Long back, I picked up this trick from one of the neo-Dow theorists on what to do in scenarios like this

Simply plot a 5 period exponential moving average on a different panel. A 5-EMA simply shows you a running weekly perspective and kind of smoothens the price where a single spike high/low is not of that much importance

You will see this 5-ema also making HH.HL.LH.LL. So now, rather than focusing on the highs/lows on the charts, focusing on highs/lows on the 5-ema gives a cleaner perspective

As per this charts, unless the 5-ema now closes above 17540 ( the ema, not Nifty price) I will not play this as a bull market. I will deal with this market as a counter move against the major bear trend

More from Finance

The Dutch regulator and DNB as financial supervisor are a tough cookie to deal with. In essence they hyperregulate EU-rules into goldplated Dutch rules which go beyond what is prescribed in Europe.

All NL-customers at British banks may thus be kicked out on brexit.

Thread

/1

If we start with the capital requirements directive, it says attracting deposits is forbidden. In article 9.

https://t.co/RYl7SXligC


Now the translation of that rule into Dutch law is slightly expanded to not only prohibit attracting deposits, but to also prohibit, having those deposits under custody ('ter beschikking hebben').

That's not in EU law, but it is in our Dutch law.

https://t.co/PsbWfNY3PA


So if you wonder how this would work out for UK banks and Payment institutions servicing Dutch customers. Have a read at the technical explanation of DNB, the financial supervisor and their summarising table.

https://t.co/LL0fAnYkRJ

Passive servicing of Dutch is not allowed!


Any bank or PSP in the UK that continues to serve Dutch customers (as in retail customers, professional players are excepted) can thus be subject to fines and policing under Dutch law.

Meaning we not only have Accidental American issues in payments, but also Accidental Dutchies

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.