Since lot of discussions on ITC, had a simple look at the chart. With each passing day, the probability of a large breakout increases. Watch the behaviour of MFI, but wait for prices to trade above the trendline with volumes

In technical analysis, majority of the patterns were first observed visually and then the rules made. Observing this interesting phenomenon on BNF over the past one month.
Any strong up day on BNF is immediately followed by a gap down open from the previous closing

So any upmove /upday is almost never having any follow-up buying the next day. Unless this pattern gets broken by 1-3 days of upmove after a strong closing, BNF looks extremely bearish. The logic of BNF seems to be " will kick your ass if you take bullish positions overnight" 😀

Jokes apart, if you want to understand the logical basis of patterns, this book is still the best :
Technical analysis of stock trends by Edwards and

A short thread on #MFI

The basics here :

Technical analysis says two things :
1. Momentum precedes price
2. Volumes precedes price

So, if an indicator includes momentum and volume analysis, it will be a leading indicator to some extent. This is the crux why I am so much confident on MFI

The indicator can be used for swing as well as day-trading. I use a period of 10 as I have seen that being our responsive to our markets here

Trendlines drawn on MFI or patterns might not be visible on price, normal trendline trading rules apply.

Divergences work and so does patterns

One can use MFI as a stand alone tool or as a supporting tool with other indicators

My indicator on divergences used codes was not allowed by tradingview ( future looking in a protected code). Tradingview has a good built-in divergence indicator which I have simply modified by plugging in MFI in place of RSI.

When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏

Nifty fut : rising Lows and Highs, showing a megaphone or broadening formation on 15 min charts. Though a bearish pattern, here it seems has broken out. 11k CEs on monthlies seems badly trapped. As long as the CE is > 140, will maintain a strong bullish stance

EOD charts. Rising after strong accumulation and volumes. COI going up with rise in price. Can have a fast upmove anytime now till 11300. View negated below 10900

BNF 15 min charts : showing FLAG formation. Breakout above 22400, trade negated below 22200. Targets given in chart. Also higher highs and higher lows

BNF also strong accumulation yesterday. This model is also showing continuous accumulation since 16th. Almost same levels given in earlier tweet

Now there are broad positional views, or the context. Trades now will be based on realtime data , option analysis etc. But these analysis suggests keeping a bullish bias on the indices while trading now unless this data changes drastically

Started accumulating ITC from last week

Will add more in the coming weeks if it shows strength

SL below 190 & Target is to hold on to see a 52w High this FY 🙏🙏

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