BC FINANCE
Saved by @vsamk

Does increase in Inflation & hence interest rates lead to a fall in equity? While theoretically yes, practically the last 20 years of data shows otherwise

Please ‘re-tweet’ 🧵& help us educate more retail investors

#Investing

 Lets start with basic, y does inflation ⬆️?
Most feel bcoz of higher demand & lower supply but that’s nt the only factor. Imagine there is a shortage of laptops wrt the demand, but there is no liquidity in the market (people don’t have monies) will the price of laptop ⬆️? No
So, Inflation takes place because the demand supply situation is accompanied by high liquidity, people have the monies to spend and hence the price goes up. Inflation does not take place only because of the demand supply gap (3/n)
Its RBI’s job to keep inflation under check. What role does RBI play? RBI is comfortable keeping Inflation between 2-6% currently. So if Inflation is increasing, how can RBI control it? Can RBI do anything to demand & supply? Nothing (4/n)
So the only tool available with RBI to control inflation is controlling liquidity. If RBI is able to reduce liquidity in the market, less money will chase the goods and hence Inflation can be expected to stabilize. (5/n)
What does RBI do? As liquidity is provided to the market by banks as loans, RBI tries controlling banks by increasing interest rates (Repo Rate). It expects that if Repo Rate goes up, the spiraling effect will reduce liquidity in the market. (6/n)
How?

Repo rate is the rate @ which banks borrow 4m RBI. If Repo⬆️, the cost at which banks borrow is expected to ⬆️. Also the MCLR/Base rate 4 banks includes the repo rate 4 calculation & hence it is expected that if Repo ⬆️, banks will ⬆️ their lending rates. (7/n)
So, if inflation goes up, efforts are made to increase interest rates by which expectation is that individuals will take lesser loans and hence demand for products will reduce and hence inflation will stabilise. (8/n)
So increasing inflation & rate is theoretically negative for equities. You take lesser loans, -ve for banking & NBFC; Expensive loans reduce demand for Real Estate, Auto & hence ancillary products like steel, cement, tyre etc. (9/n)
Expensive loans ⬆️ cost for debt heavy sector like Infra, Power, etc. which many nt b able 2 pass the cost 2 the consumer & hence ⬆️ rates r generally considered negative 4 many sectors apart from the technical reason of future cash flow getting discounted at higher rate (10/n)
So is currently inflation going up? Yes but any growth focused central bank like RBI understands the same and hence makes efforts to not increase rates in a way that it creates panic in the markets. Fed also is talking about increasing rates only in the end of 2023 (11/n)
Central banks may not increase rates but markets know rates have to go up and hence they start factoring that in which is reflected in yields of the 10 years g-sec (more on this in some other thread) So yields are a good proxy to increase in rates to judge the sentiments (12/n)
So now, if yields go up (proxy to interest rates going up), equity should fall right? But the last 20 years of data shows otherwise. I looked at all periods where yields had bottomed out & started rising (Like today) & compared it with equities & found 4 such instances (13/n)
(a) 04-08, rates went up but equity also generated 23% CAGR
(b) 08-11, rates went up, equity generates 21% CAGR
(c) 2013, too small a time frame but the same reading
(d) 16-18, rates went up, equity generated 16% CAGR

#investing (14/n)
Now ofcourse the question will be the fundamental logic
(a) In lower interest rate scenarios, corporates can raise loans at considerably low rates and redeploy it to generate higher ROCE’s till rates actually start rising much later (15/n)
(b) Higher disposable investor income which is not going to fixed income investing because of lower rates is also invested in growth assets like Equity & commodities (16/n)
Ofcourse this will lead to reversal some time in the future but the transition does not happen over night. Markets see knee jerk reactions in the near term but till the time inflation is held under control, this phase can be navigated (17/n)

#investing
This is not an investment advice because you also have to look at other data points to invest or sell from the market. I am writing another thread later covering all points included to judge market movements (18/n)
This is my 37th thread, 'do re-tweet',
Have earlier written on,
Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.
You can find them all in the link below, https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF…… (**END**)

More from Kirtan A Shah

Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Is US going to default on its debt?

This 🧵 will surely help you understand. Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educated investors (1/13)


How does a country run?

Assume a country to be like a company, which has income & expenses. Income source can be tax collections & expense can be government employee salaries, defence sending’s, social security schemes etc. (2/13)

Generally, most economies are running a deficit; their income is less than expense. So if your income is 100 and expense is 105, where do you get the 5? You borrow!

Similarly US has been borrowing & the total debt today roughly stands at a whooping $28.5T. (3/13)

Deficit in the last 2 years has gone up significantly because of COVID + the government wants to spend more; a $3.5T spending package is what they are trying to get an approval for + older debt is coming up for maturity (4/13)


Okay, so I am saying they will raise more debt for the deficit of COVID, the new package & paying older debt off?

Ideally a yes but they are not allowed to borrow more! (5/13)
WOULDUSDEFAULT
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)


But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help


Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)


There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
STOCKSLEARNINGS , ALL , PE THREAD
Advertisement
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
(Thread) With Kotak launching its International REIT Fund of Fund NFO, it is worth revisiting our old thread on Real Estate Investment Trust (#REIT). The Idea is to educate readers on REIT & share our view on the Kotak #NFO

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/n)

What’s a REIT?

Lets say I am a RE developer, K Raheja. I like a land in Mumbai & Hyderabad 4 some commercial development. I decide to buy it. Where will I get the monies 2 buy & construct it?
1. Self
2. Bank, NBFC, MF - Debt
3. Partner – someone else investing as Equity (2/n)

So I invest some monies, got some 4m banks & MF’s & I also got Blackrock to invest 2 buy the land & make the business park called 'Mindspace'. I constructed around 23-mn sq ft with multiple building & I started leasing them out to companies who wanted rented office premises (3/n)

There comes a point where I needed more monies to build new building, pay off the loans etc., where do I get the monies? So I decide to do an #IPO. Not of the entire company K Raheja but only this project called Mindspace. So I formed a trust or corporation (4/n)

I commit to payout 90% of my rent income to the shareholders proportionately as dividends & I will use this IPO money to invest a minimum 80% in completed real estate, which is generating rent & will use 20% in constructing new Real Estate or lend to some other developer (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Personal Finance 101 – My learning’s about investing

This topic is for everyone, whether you manage your money yourself or through your advisor, it will go a long way in managing your finances.

Do re-tweet & help us educate retail investors (1/n)


Subscribe to our YouTube for some interesting educational content around Personal Finance - https://t.co/jvgNEDWiAZ

And you can also join our Telegram channel for regular updates – https://t.co/Ekz6I8pDGt (2/n)

(1) Lets start with Life Insurance

Term Insurance is the best way to take an insurance cover & probably the only product to buy in life insurance. Make sure u disclose all the necessary information before taking the insurance. Smoking, Alcohol, any pre-existing deceases etc(3/n)

Have atleast 10-15 times of your annual income as insurance cover

But there are variants of term insurance that you should avoid (4/n)

(A) Term plan with return of premium

For a non-smoker born on the 1st Jan 1985 & policy term 39 years (till age 75), the regular premium for a 1-cr term insurance is 22,157 (inclusive of GST) but with returns of premium is 42670 (inclusive of GST). An increase of 20,513 (5/n)
GENERICLEARNINGS
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
A basic premier on the banking sector, demystifying commonly used terms,
CASA
Wholesale Banking
Net Interest Income (NII)
Cost of Liability
Advances Growth
Gross v/s Net NPA
Provisions
SLR/CRR
Capital Adequacy Ratio
Net Interest Margin (NIM)

Do hit the 're-tweet' (1/n)

Banking, as a business is simple to understand, you borrow money (liability for the bank as the bank needs to pay back) and lend (asset for the bank as the bank is expected to receive it bank), the difference between the borrowings & lending is banks income (2/n)

Where all can they borrow from?

(a) Savings Account (SA)
(b) Current Account (CA)
(c) Fixed Deposit (FD)
(d) Recurring Deposit (RD)
(e) Certificate of Deposits (CD)
(f) Bonds etc. (3/n)

Whom do they lend?
(a) Retail - Housing loan, auto loan, personal loan etc.
(b) Wholesale (Institutional Lending) – Commercial Papers (CP) & other Corporate Loans

P.S. – “HDFC Bank is now increasing focus on wholesale lending”, hope you now understand what that means (4/n)

How does the bank profit?

So lets say the average borrowing cost of the bank (also know as the cost of liabilities) is 4.54% & average lending cost is 8.54%, the difference 8.54% - 4.54% = 4% is called the Net Interest Income (NII). HDFC Banks Cost of Liability is 4.54% (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS , SECTOR KNOWLEDGE

More from Finance

10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, we'll cover *State Quantities* and *Flow Quantities*.

This mental model can help us analyze many different entities -- from complex engineering systems to publicly traded companies.


2/

A "State Quantity" is something that's associated with a *specific point in time*.

For example, the number of followers a Twitter account has is a state quantity. This number can go up and down over time. But at any one *specific* time point, it's fixed.

3/

Similarly, the amount of cash a company has is a state quantity.

This cash balance can also rise and fall over time.

But pick any one *specific* time point -- and the company can only have one *specific* cash balance at that time point.

4/

By contrast, a "Flow Quantity" is something that's associated with a time *interval* rather than a time *point*.

For example, the number of followers gained by a Twitter account is a flow quantity. It's meaningful only when we specify a time interval (eg, the last 30 days).

5/

A simple analogy is that a State Quantity is like a photo -- a snapshot at a particular *point* in time.

But a Flow Quantity is like a video -- a record of events that take place during a particular time *interval*.
SCIENCE , FINANCE
Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding
@soicfinance
@nivin27 Kenneth Andrade & all his interviews ever
FINANCE
Advertisement
Neil Bananas Bharadwa \U0001f44a\U0001f3fd
Neil Bananas Bharadwa ...
@MrNeilB
Having made over 1000 boxes for vulnerable families in Cambridge via @RedHenCambridge (thanks to our customers 🙏🏽) My thoughts on the £30 box thing. Lots of factors at play here. 1/

If the pics in this @BootstrapCook thread are true and correct then the Govt/taxpayers & families in need are getting absolutely SHAFTED 👇🏽 2/


There are some mitigating circumstances. A £30 box won’t ever contain £30 (retail) worth of food - people aren’t factoring in
-the cost of the box
-paying someone to fill it
-rent & rates
-& most expensive the *transport/distribution*

3/

If you’re doing the above at scale. Delivering *across the UK* it’s not cheap BUT IMHO there should be at LEAST £20 worth of groceries in a £30 box. To get more value they need more fresh produce. Just carrots & apples is terrible. 4/

I’m gonna put my rep on the line here & say something about these big national catering companies whose names I’ve seen mentioned. They are an ASSHOLE to deal with & completely shaft small businesses like mine with their terms which is why I won’t deal with them. 5/
FINANCE
Yash Mehta
Yash Mehta
@YMehta_
Investing in stocks is boring, but it can help in creating wealth for many investors.

Sharing 4 Simple Investment Strategies (sold as a ₹ 50,000 course!).

For guidance, shared screeners for all the strategies also.

Shared a bonus trading strategy at the end.

A thread 🧵:

1/ All Time High Breakout:

Stock that breaks the uptrend are the one that can give massive upmove.
These stocks are considered as strong stocks in the market.

Timeframe should be monthly and if price closes above ATH on any day you can enter.

Example 1:

Bajaj Finance gave a breakout above ATH at around 55 and then it moved up till 5000 levels.

Total returns of 9000% in 10 years.

Simple Strategy, isn't it?


Example 2:

Reliance Chart.

It gave breakout above its All Time High level after 10 years and then never looking back.

Price moved up from 700 to 2600.
Returns of 270% in five years.


How to Follow Stoploss?

Initially keep stoploss at swing low on monthly chart and trail your stoploss accordingly to enjoy massive upmove.

Other ways of Trailing Stoploss can be using 200 EMA or any other indicator.
FINANCE , ALL
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
Here are all the threads posted by @AdityaTodmal and @niki_poojary in January: 🧵

• 8 powerful ways to use Twitter
• Power of Stocks
• 14 Trading Strategies
• Basics of Derivatives (3 parts)
• Technical Analysis for all sectors
• Tweets of the week
• Books on Futures

All the Top 10 tweets threads I have ever posted to date:


Basics of Derivatives Part 1:


8 powerful ways to use Twitter:


Basics of Derivatives Part 2:
SCREENERS , FINANCE

You May Also Like

Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
Pyramiding 2.0

A thread-


What is pyramiding?

It is simply adding to your winners.

Why use pyramiding?

1. It makes your winners bigger than your losers.

• Because you are adding positions when your trades are going your way, you are increasing your gains but your losers will be small comparatively.

2. You lose less during Draw-down time ( it saves you from losing big during whipsaws )

• Many times when the market is in sideways mode, Entering a trade with full risk might not be the best idea.

• So, you test the waters with a small position first, it could be ⅓ or ¼ of your total risk.

• So if the Breakout fails or whipsaws come, then you will only lose a small part of your overall risk.

• Then when position starts to go in your favor you can add to it.

3. It helps you to concentrate on a few trades,

They say that don’t put all your eggs in one basket, but don’t put them in too many either.

• See, Everyone can see charts and find breakouts, pullbacks etc.
ALL , SWING TRADING , PYRAMIDING
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI KUMARIAMMAN, KANYAKUMARI (TN)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

Created by Maharshi Parasurama and also one among the 108 Shakthi Peethas in the world. The name Kanyakumari stands for Kanya(Virgin) and Kumari(girl).
Devi took this form to vanquish the demon Banasura
@GunduHuDuGa


Once, Banasura(grand son of Mahabali) obtained a boon from Shiva that he could be vanquished only by a virgin.
So, Devi took the form of a kumari and started meditating with the desire to marry Shiva at Suchindram.
Pleased Shiva fixed the midnight hour for marriage with Devi.


Devarshi Narada knew that the marriage would end the chance of killing Banasura. So, he assumed the form of a cock and crowed. Shiva returned back to Suchindram thinking that it was dawn.
Angered, Devi cursed that all food and articles meant for wedding turn into sand and shells


When Banasura heard about Devi’s beauty, he tried to take her by force. Devi, then, killed him and granted the wish of Devas to remain there always protecting them.
The murti of Devi stands with a rosary in hand. Her diamond nose-ring is said to be visible even from the sea.


Once an ancient mariner mistook it for a lighthouse and sailing towards it, his ship wrecked upon the Kanya Kumari rocks. In order to prevent such a tragedy from happening again, the eastern door of the shrine is opened only on five special occasions throughout the year.
ALL
Advertisement
Jonathan Ware
Jonathan Ware
@ReassessHistory
Rhino Barges

One of the dullest, coolest, more bizarre and fascinating pieces of kit used in Normandy.

Which NO ONE REALLY CARES ABOUT.

BUT I DO AND YOU SHOULD TOO.
/1

#WW2 #SWW #History


Planning for Overlord and Neptune had a serious snag, how to get troops from LSTs onto the beach as simply ramming them onto the beaches and dropping the ramp was known to damage the exceptionally vulnerable LSTs and felt to be unsustainable in the mid to long term. /2


LSTs were essential in sustaining Overlord's progress and were a subject of major headaches in the planning phase, and a real subject of friction when it came to launching additional amphibious operations such as Dragoon.

A single LSTs loss represented a capability nick. /3


So, logic dictated, we don't really want these remarkable but rare and highly valuable vessels constantly doing beach landings, we want something to act as a medium between ship to shore, and in came the (mostly) American designed Rhino. /4


I fucking love Rhinos.

Seriously.

Graceful lines of pure industrial pedigree.

Modular.

LOOK AT IT. /5
HISTORY
Meet Shah
Meet Shah
@ms89_meet
Strong Monopolies:

IRCTC 100% Market share in Rail Network.

IEX >90% market share in power trading.

Zydus wellness >90% market share in sugar free product.

Eicher motors >85% market share in 250cc bikes category.

MCX >85% market share in commodity trading.

Coal India >80% market share in coal production in India.

ITC >75% market share in cigarettes.

Honda Siel >75% in portable power generators.

Hindustan Zinc >75% market share in primary zinc industry.

Asahi India Glass >70% market share in automotive glass.

NRB Bearings >70% market share in needle roller bearings.

Pidilite >65% market share in adhesives.

CAMS >65% market share in RTA within mutual fund industry.

Time Technoplast >65% market share in polymer based industrial packaging.

Concor >65% market share in domestic container cargo transport.

Exide >60% market share in lead batteries.

Naukri >60% market share in the Indian job market space.

Praj >60% market share in ethanol plant installing.

Indiamart Intermesh >55% market share in the online B2B Classified space.

Borosil Renewables >55% market share in Lab glass.

Vst Tillers >50% market share in
Power tillers.

Delta corp >50% in online poker games.

Vinati Organics >50% market share in IBB.
GENERICLEARNINGS , GENERAL TWEER , INTRESTING TOPIC
Raman Shalupau
Raman Shalupau
@ksaitor
Maker movement is doing to startups what startups did to corporations.

Here is why 👇

Startups fixed the problem of innovation, that corporations lack.

In big, slow corporations, innovation is a RISK and distraction from the core $$$ profitable business.

Agile startups could launch, iterate fast and eventually stumble upon new growing market opportunities.

However,

When a startup reaches product-market-fit, it has to 🚀 "grow at all costs" and reach market dominance before some giant corporation can replicate their new product and distribute it to their existing giant customer base.

Startup's "growth at all costs" often means growth at the expense of charging customers $$$ money.

Hence, to be sustainable, startups have to constantly chase investor money.

Startup teams spend more time finding and pleasing investors, than finding and pleasing customers.

95% of startups die because they run out of (investor) money + no business model + crazy investor expectations.

Same way corporations die, when unable to adjust to new technology and market shifts.
MAKERS