BC FINANCE
Saved by @vsamk

Does increase in Inflation & hence interest rates lead to a fall in equity? While theoretically yes, practically the last 20 years of data shows otherwise

Please ‘re-tweet’ 🧵& help us educate more retail investors

#Investing

 Lets start with basic, y does inflation ⬆️?
Most feel bcoz of higher demand & lower supply but that’s nt the only factor. Imagine there is a shortage of laptops wrt the demand, but there is no liquidity in the market (people don’t have monies) will the price of laptop ⬆️? No
So, Inflation takes place because the demand supply situation is accompanied by high liquidity, people have the monies to spend and hence the price goes up. Inflation does not take place only because of the demand supply gap (3/n)
Its RBI’s job to keep inflation under check. What role does RBI play? RBI is comfortable keeping Inflation between 2-6% currently. So if Inflation is increasing, how can RBI control it? Can RBI do anything to demand & supply? Nothing (4/n)
So the only tool available with RBI to control inflation is controlling liquidity. If RBI is able to reduce liquidity in the market, less money will chase the goods and hence Inflation can be expected to stabilize. (5/n)
What does RBI do? As liquidity is provided to the market by banks as loans, RBI tries controlling banks by increasing interest rates (Repo Rate). It expects that if Repo Rate goes up, the spiraling effect will reduce liquidity in the market. (6/n)
How?

Repo rate is the rate @ which banks borrow 4m RBI. If Repo⬆️, the cost at which banks borrow is expected to ⬆️. Also the MCLR/Base rate 4 banks includes the repo rate 4 calculation & hence it is expected that if Repo ⬆️, banks will ⬆️ their lending rates. (7/n)
So, if inflation goes up, efforts are made to increase interest rates by which expectation is that individuals will take lesser loans and hence demand for products will reduce and hence inflation will stabilise. (8/n)
So increasing inflation & rate is theoretically negative for equities. You take lesser loans, -ve for banking & NBFC; Expensive loans reduce demand for Real Estate, Auto & hence ancillary products like steel, cement, tyre etc. (9/n)
Expensive loans ⬆️ cost for debt heavy sector like Infra, Power, etc. which many nt b able 2 pass the cost 2 the consumer & hence ⬆️ rates r generally considered negative 4 many sectors apart from the technical reason of future cash flow getting discounted at higher rate (10/n)
So is currently inflation going up? Yes but any growth focused central bank like RBI understands the same and hence makes efforts to not increase rates in a way that it creates panic in the markets. Fed also is talking about increasing rates only in the end of 2023 (11/n)
Central banks may not increase rates but markets know rates have to go up and hence they start factoring that in which is reflected in yields of the 10 years g-sec (more on this in some other thread) So yields are a good proxy to increase in rates to judge the sentiments (12/n)
So now, if yields go up (proxy to interest rates going up), equity should fall right? But the last 20 years of data shows otherwise. I looked at all periods where yields had bottomed out & started rising (Like today) & compared it with equities & found 4 such instances (13/n)
(a) 04-08, rates went up but equity also generated 23% CAGR
(b) 08-11, rates went up, equity generates 21% CAGR
(c) 2013, too small a time frame but the same reading
(d) 16-18, rates went up, equity generated 16% CAGR

#investing (14/n)
Now ofcourse the question will be the fundamental logic
(a) In lower interest rate scenarios, corporates can raise loans at considerably low rates and redeploy it to generate higher ROCE’s till rates actually start rising much later (15/n)
(b) Higher disposable investor income which is not going to fixed income investing because of lower rates is also invested in growth assets like Equity & commodities (16/n)
Ofcourse this will lead to reversal some time in the future but the transition does not happen over night. Markets see knee jerk reactions in the near term but till the time inflation is held under control, this phase can be navigated (17/n)

#investing
This is not an investment advice because you also have to look at other data points to invest or sell from the market. I am writing another thread later covering all points included to judge market movements (18/n)
This is my 37th thread, 'do re-tweet',
Have earlier written on,
Sector Analysis - Banking, Paints, Logistic, REIT, InvIT, Sugar, Steel
- Macro
- Debt Markets
- Equity
- Gold
- Personal Finance etc.
You can find them all in the link below, https://t.co/UrRt87OLLF…… (**END**)

More from Kirtan A Shah

Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
In a business where the buying & selling price is fixed by the government, how is that the sugar stocks are rallying so much?

A thread 🧵 to learn how the sugar sector works. Do re-tweet and hence us educate more investors (1/n)

- Sugar is made out of Sugarcane
- The government fixes buying price (FRP – Fair & Remunerative price) for the mill from the farmers at 2.850/Kg
- Selling price is also fixed at Rs. 31/Kg (MSP – Minimum selling price) (2/n)

Lets understand the sector,

- Sugarcane purchased by the mill is crushed to remove the juice (exactly like you have sugarcane juice at a hotel)
- Juice is heated & boiled to remove sugar (3/n)

- The juice can be boiled upto 3 times to remove sugar. Each time it is boiled, sugar is removed, than some water is added and boiled again to remove more sugar (4/n)

- There are 2 by-products as well. The residue left behind after the boiling process is over is like a gum/paste called molasses & the fiber/stem of the sugarcane after juice is extracted (5/n)
SECTORLEARNINGS , ALL , INVESTMENTLEARNING
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@kirtan0810
A basic primer on the Indian Paint sector

With the listing of Indigo paints, JSW entering the paint sector & now Grasim announcing to invest 5,000 cr in the sector, lets explore,
-Products
-Industry
-Company

Do hit the ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more investors (1/n)

Lets start with PRODUCTS

India paint industry is broadly divided into two,
(1) Decorative Paints (used mainly in residential & office infrastructure)–75% of the total paints market
(2) Industrial Paints (used in Auto & other industrial uses)-25% of the total paints market (2/n)

Decorative Paints is further classified as
a. Primer & Putty–They r applied 2 the wall 2 fill the cracks in the wall & make it smooth b4 painting. It also gives a lasting effect to the paint
b. Thinner–Its mixed with the paint 2 reduce the viscosity,applying becomes easy (3/n)

c. Emulsion Paint – Water based premium range paint mainly used in metros & large cities
d. Enamel Paint- Oil based medium range paint for smaller cities
e. Distemper–Water based paint mainly for the rural area as it can be used on the wall directly without using the primer(4/n)

(f) Wood Coating – Used to protect furniture against moisture (5/n)
SECTOREXPLAINATIONS
Advertisement
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)


But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help


Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)


There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)
STOCKSLEARNINGS , ALL , PE THREAD
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
𝐀 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 & 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨𝐬 🧵

I still everyday meet investors who think Bitcoin & Blockchain are the same & this thread is specifically for them

Do re-tweet & help us educate more invetsors ☺

#Investing #Cryptos #Bitcoin (1/n)

(Q1) Lets start with what was historically used as a method of payment?

- Barter system, you give me a cow and I give you 100 kgs of rice (2/n)

(Q2) So why dint we continue with the barter system?

- It was difficult to transact in fractions
- What if I want only 50 kgs of rice? I cant give you half a cow right?
- This is the prime reason for the introduction of smaller units of payment method we now call as coins (3/n)

(Q3) How did Gold coins get shortlisted for the job?
- It was malleable & portable
- It was non corrosive, could be stored for a long time
- It was a perfect combination of abundance & rare
- Plus it was eye catching & visually appealing (4/n)

(Q4) What about paper currencies?
a) When paper currencies were introduced, it was decided that a country could only print as much currency as the gold reserves they have but this was withdrawn in 1971 bcoz of which the central banks could then print as much money as they wanted
BITCOIN
Kirtan A Shah
Kirtan A Shah
@KirtanShahCFP
Here’s a compilation of Personal Finance threads I have written so far. Thank you for motivating me to do it.

Hit the 're-tweet' and help us educated more investors

Yes Bank’s additional Tier 1 bonds, written off. Lakshmi Villas Banks Tier 2 bonds, written off. Understand what & why of ATI and Tier 2 bonds in this thread.

https://t.co/VBmV2dwpPn (1/n)


'Floating Rate Funds' - A case for debt investing in the current interest rate situation


Fixed Income investment strategies

It’s a misconception that FD, RBI Bond, PPF etc have no risk. The reason we don’t see the risk in them is because for us, risk ONLY means loss of capital.


Index Funds v/s ETFs

While index funds and ETF’s look similar, there are multiple differences you need to keep in mind before investing in either of them. Let me highlight the important ones
ALL , MF AMP PERSONAL FINANCE

More from Finance

Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Thread: P&F Super Pattern

An effective price pattern defined using properties of P&F charts.

#Superpattern #Pointandfigure #Definedge


Point & Figure is an oldest charting method where price is plotted vertically, and the chart moves only when price moves. It is a different way of looking at the price, the objective box-value and reversal value offers advantage of identifying objective price patterns.

When price is moving up, it is plotted in a column of 'X'. When it is going down, it is plotted in a column of ‘O’. Normally, three-box reversal criteria is used to define the trend & reversal. Unlike a bar or candle, the P&F column can have multiple sessions in it.


Link to know more about the subject:
https://t.co/2xtLAVPBvm

See below chart. Price is in a strong uptrend, P&F chart would produce a long of column of 'X' with more number of boxes in it.


If such a trend is followed by some time bars without meaningful price correct, P&F chart would not move, and it will remain in column of 'X' in such a scenario.
FINANCE
Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.

I credit Fintwit for my learnings.

Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:

1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger

(Read on...)

6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies

Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:

1. How much $$ do you need to retire

Before you start, you must know the end game.

To meet your retirement goals...

How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?

10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.

Hint: It's NOT


2. Research a business

Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.

Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.

Conclusion?

To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.

Start with


3. Reading annual reports

This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.

You cannot just listen to opinions from others.

You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.

Start with the 10k.

Ming Zhao explains it
FINANCE
Advertisement
Thomas Chua
Thomas Chua
@SteadyCompound
Terry Smith is often referred to as "the English Warren Buffett".

He runs Fundsmith which has a fund size of £27.9bn.

Despite the size, Fundsmith did a CAGR of 18.4%.

In his book Investing for Growth, he explains his investing philosophy.

Here's a breakdown:


1. Fundsmith's winning formula

Find companies that focus on delivering value.

Not those who are looking to pacify Wall Street with short-term results.


2. Avoiding "cheap" companies?

Low multiples are not a reason to buy a company.

A ship will continue to sink if it has a hole in it.

"A stock may have a low valuation but an even lower intrinsic value. Buying such a stock is not a recipe for investment success."


3. Getting quality right

For long-term investors, getting the quality of the business is more important than the valuation.

“An investor could have paid 281 times earnings for L’Oréal, 156 times for Colgate, and 147 times for Brown-Forman and still beat the market.”


4. "Unprofitable" companies could be good investments

Many of the best companies don't show earnings today.

But that's because they're heavily reinvesting for the future.

It's just that the earnings hasn't show up.
FINANCE
Ramon Recuero
Ramon Recuero
@ramonrecuero
1/11) Introducing https://t.co/dDuU0rsw1Y.

We are building a new #DeFi asset management protocol.

Ccommunity owned and community managed funds.

DeFi meets Wall Street Bets.

It's time to decentralize and democratize investment

https://t.co/exErPi5VRn

TLDR 👇

2/11)

The investment landscape has changed forever.

We are finally at zero interest rates. End of the road.

Traditional asset classes like bonds or equities don't have risk/adjusted positive outlooks anymore.

Inflation looms 💸💸

What can we do about it?

3/11

As @RaoulGMI says, only one asset class has outperformed this increase in the money supply.

#Bitcoin, and crypto assets are just getting started.

Asset Management TAM is > $100T while DeFi is just $40B and all crypto is ~$1T.

Huge opportunity ahead 🚀🚀


4/11

We want to give everyone access to this one-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Accreditation rules, access to secret deals and local jurisdiction have kept the best opportunities private.

@balajis said many times that Web 3.0 is going to turn the world into investors. We agree.

5/11
We need to give everyone a chance to participate.

Robinhood has made everyone aware of the risk of centralized platforms.

If you are not paying to use a platform, you are the product.

Thanks to #Ethereum and #DeFi, we can offer asset management that is trustless and open.
FINANCE
Krishna Bahirwani
Krishna Bahirwani
@BahirwaniKrish
What a privilege it was to host @Gautam__Baid for my first ever Twitter Spaces event along with @dadalife369 and @Finvents.

While we wait for the YouTube recording. Here are 8 of my biggest takeaways from today's session.

#investing

1 - Start by coming up with a portfolio allocation strategy based on your aims and objectives for investing. Include flexibility, tracking and rebalancing as part of your strategy.


2 - Learn from those who succeeded before you to ultimately develop your own investing style

Here are three books that influence @Gautam__Baid's investing style - They are some of the best books in investing along with Gautam's The Joys of Compounding.


3 - Develop a robust repository of sources from which you can generate investment ideas.

Here are the ones @Gautam__Baid uses.

It is a super-comprehensive list.


4 - Focus on the process as opposed to the outcomes. This is very important.

Developing a superior process leads to the repeatability of exceptional outcomes.
WISE INVESTING , FINANCE

You May Also Like

\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
#Thread
Lessor known facts of Sudarshan Chakra or Neela Chakra of Puri Jagannath Temple.

The metal wheel at the top of Bhagwan Jagannath temple is also known as Neela Chakra (Blue Wheel). The wheel is made of eight metals comprising of.. 1/n


iron, copper, zinc, mercury, lead, brass, silver & gold. It's circumferance is about 36 feet & it is so designed that there is a wheel within the wheel. The circumferance of the inner wheel is about 26 feet. Eight hubs join together the inner and the outer wheels. 2/n


There are decorative designs on the outer wheel. The thickness of the Neela Chakra is 2 inches.The wheel is said to be Bhagwan Vishnu's most powerful weapon, Sudarshana Chakra. Inside Jagannath temple, Lord Vishnu's wheel is also worshipped in the name of 'Sudarshana'. 3/n


But inside the temple Sudarshana is not in the shape of a wheel, but in the shape of a small wood pillar placed to the left of image of bhagwan Jagannath. It is believed that the same Sudarshana is also at the top of the temple and is known by the name of Neela Chakra. 4/n


There is a specific category of people among the temple sevaks to serve the Neela Chakra and they are known as Garuda Sevaka or Chunara Nejoga. The pilgrims hold these sevaks in high esteem because everyday at Sunset. 5/n
ALL
Ferruccio Balestreri \U0001f308
Ferruccio Balestreri 🌈...
@0xferruccio
🕵️‍♂️ How Google's PageRank algorithm works

The PageRank algorithm gives each page a rating of its
importance, which is a recursively defined measure of importance, based on if important pages link to it.
It's recursive because the importance of a page refers back to the importance of other pages that link to it

Here's how it works in practice:
1⃣ We start with some pages and crawl them for links


2⃣ Each page has 1/N points (where N as the total number of pages)


3⃣ Add points to each page for the amount of links to it, divided by the number
of links emanating from the sources of these links
TECH
Advertisement
Sumit Grrg
Sumit Grrg
@sumitgrrg
These 10 threads will teach you more than reading 100 books

Five billionaires share their top lessons on startups, life and entrepreneurship (1/10)


10 competitive advantages that will trump talent (2/10)


Some harsh truths you probably don’t want to hear (3/10)


10 significant lies you’re told about the world (4/10)
ALL , MOTIVATION , BOOKS
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
KANIPAKAM VINAYAKA, CHITOOR (AP)
#bharatmandir

Kani means wetland and Pakam means flow of water into wetland.
Kanipakam Vinayaka is swayambhu (self-manifested). The murti is in a well which is always full of water.


Once, there were three brothers. Each one had a handicap- Dumb, Deaf and Blind. They had a small piece of land for livelihood. For their field, they drew water from a well. One day, they found that the well had dried up so one of them started digging in the well.


His tool hit something and blood oozed out. They found a swayambhu murti of Ganesha here.
Villagers started offering coconut water which overflew into a channel. Hence the name Kanipakam.


The murti is still growing in size. At present, we see the knees and the abdomen only. The Kavacham (Armour) offered to Vinayaka 50 years ago doesn’t fit today.
Vinayaka is believed to be the upholder of truth. So people come here and swear before him to prove their innocence.
ALL
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Santkumaras-The four adorable kids of the Universe.

The Kumaras r the four sages who roam the Universe as children from the Puranic texts of Hinduism named,Sanaka, Sanatana,Sanandana& Sanatkumara.They r described as the first mind-born creations &sons of the creator God Brahma.


Brahma,who had received the knowledge of Puranas from the Universal being(God Himself), imbibed this to his 4 Kumaras.
Sanat Kumaras then taught the Puranas to Narada.Narada transmitted it to Krishna Dwaipayana who in turn scripted them in monumental epic documents of 18 Puranas.

The Vishnu Purana is recorded in two parts,the Vishnu Purana & Naradiya Purana.The teachings of Sanaka of the Kumara brothers r contained in the Naradiya Purana which is also divided in two parts, the first part containing the teachings of Sanaka &second part,teachings of others.


Born from Brahma's mind,4 Kumars took lifelong vows of celibacy against their father's wishes.They r said to wander throughout materialistic &spiritualistic universe without any desire but with the aim to teach.All 4 brothers studied Vedas from their Childhood&travelled together.


The Bhagwata Purana lists the Kumaras among the 12 Mahajanas(great devotees or bhaktas) who although being eternally liberated souls from birth, still became attracted to the devotional service of Vishnu from their already enlightened state.
ALL