And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems
First they came for the 🐟
And John Redwood said the 🇬🇧 fishing industry would adjust
And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems
And there the Minister wrote a letter saying 🇪🇺 was wrong, when his officials knew 🇪🇺 was right
They're still waiting
We do not recognise the numbers, the 🇬🇧 Government says
They cannot even send the potatoes to Northern Ireland
So they set up operations in 🇪🇺 countries, something 🇬🇧 Department for International Trade acknowledged was a good idea
So they put on half a dozen 🇮🇪-🇫🇷 ⛴ routes to avoid 🇬🇧 altogether
And so the boss of the 🏴🏦 "warns" 🇪🇺 they are being unfair, but has no solution
No one knows who will do the jobs these people did once the economy recovers somewhat post-COVID
However you look at it, this makes *no sense*
It's not if you're pro-Brexit or not. It's about having a sensible view of the economic future of the country. Where is it?
/ends
More from Jon Worth
This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:
1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.
And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.
We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.
3/25
*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think 🇬🇧 tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now ⛔️.
Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.
4/25
The most obvious stumbling block is...
🥁🥁🥁
... the European Parliament!
Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.
Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this
Pretty clear again speaking to Mep's they won't countenance debating or ratifying any EU-UK trade agreement before December 31st #Brexit
— Shona Murray (@ShonaMurray_) December 15, 2020
Mep's are pretty annoyed at the very suggestion that it would be provisionally applied and the ratification would be a simple rubber stamp.
A short 🧵
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M
Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n
Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what
I own this error - I was wrong
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing
Bear with me - this is messy but important
1/12
Why will it be hellish?
We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec
There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not
2/12
Coronavirus first
I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?
3/12
Those are enough grounds for plenty of parliamentary opposition on the Tory benches, and on opposition benches too.
Labour could easily justify voting against in that some of the judgments on Tiers are not strictly based on the science
But what does voting *against* mean?
4/12
Were the vote lost, there would be little or no actual practical consequence regarding the Coronavirus restrictions - as discussed with Adam Wagner the government would almost certainly table Regulations using its emergency powers
Yes they could table new regulations and could use the emergency procedure so that parliament doesn't have to vote on them until 4 weeks later. So the govt has a lot of leeway (legally if not politically)
— Adam Wagner (@AdamWagner1) November 27, 2020
More from Finance
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.
Rule 3 : DO NOT run or trade everything that moves. Focus on a few stocks and master them. When a move comes, make the max out of that move.
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) October 14, 2021
Example : in this crazy mkt, I did not even trade TataMotors this week. Stayed focussed on ITC and it gave good returns https://t.co/41wkugZg1I
This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc
IV - A thread
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) September 20, 2018
In financial mathematics, implied volatility of an option contract is
that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when
input in an option pricing model ) will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of the option (1/n)
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Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:
Next level tactic when closing a sale, candidate, or investment:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) February 27, 2018
Ask: \u201cWhat needs to be true for you to be all in?\u201d
You'll usually get an explicit answer that you might not get otherwise. It also holds them accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to
- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal
3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:
Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.
Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.
4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?
To get clarity.
You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.
It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”
Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.