It's out! The @EU_Commission winter economic forecast for 2021 ๐Ÿ“Š
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ +5.6% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท +5.5% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท +5.6% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ +4.7% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น +4.5% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น +4.1% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ +4.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ +4.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช +3.9% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด +3.8% GDP
๐Ÿ’ถ +3.8% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ +3.7% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท +3.5% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป +3.5% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช +3.4% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น +3.2% GDP

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช +3.2% GDP
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ +3.2% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ +3.2% GDP
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ +3.2% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ +3.1% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ +2.9% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ +2.8% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ +2.7% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช +2.7% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช +2.6% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น +2.2% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น +2.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ +1.8% GDP
Vs๐Ÿ“ˆ 2020:

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ -11.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท -10.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น - 9.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท - 8.9% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น - 8.8% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท - 8.3% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น - 7.6% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น - 7.4% GDP
๐Ÿ’ถ - 6.8% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ - 6.3% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช - 6.2% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ - 6.2% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ - 5.9% GDP
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ - 5.8% GDP
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ - 5.7% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ - 5.3% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช - 5.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด - 5.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ - 4.9% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - 4.1% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป - 3.5% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ - 3.5% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ - 3.1% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ - 3.1% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช - 3.0% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช - 2.9% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช - 2.9% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ - 2.8% GDP
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น - 0.9% GDP
Commissioner @PaoloGentiloni says the forecast is based on the assumption that restrictive measures to contain the #coronavirus will be eased in the second quarter of 2021.
๐Ÿ‘€By the way, this is the first time the Commission economic forecast does not include data for the ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งUK after the effective end of the transition period on December 31.
Commissioner says the forecast does not take into consideration the potential positive impact of the #EUrecovery fund because the Commission has no way yet to measure it just yet.
Commissioner @PaoloGentiloni warns on the long-term impact on employment and growing inequalities as a result of the crisis -especially gender inequalities.
EVP @VDombrovskis message on the economic forecast: "While we can be cautiously optimistic, uncertainty remains."
๐Ÿ‘‰Commission calculates around -0.5% GDP #Brexit impact for the๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บEU's growth, up to -2.2% GDP for the ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งUK until the end of 2022.
** Correction:

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ชIreland's GDP in 2020 was actually +3.0%.

Sorry about that!

More from Economy

$600/wk Unemployment Insurance cannot deliver the benefits of a $600/wk Job Guarantee. From the outset, I should say JG is not a replacement for UI, no matter what you may have heard. Iโ€™ll get to this later, but read this long ๐Ÿงถ w/ that in mind.


Automatic stabilization: Both $600/wk UI and JG will provide counter cyclical spending. But UI will be weaker. Counter-cyclical stabilization is not just about the absence of income. It is also about the transmission and structure of economy

Firms don't like to hire the unemployed. Mass and long-term unemployment make the problem worse. JG would recover labor markets much faster than a UI of the same amount, both b/c of the higher direct, induced & tertiary employment effects & b/c of private firm hiring preferences.

JG stabilizes spending patterns better. Uncertain job prospects may mean more cautious spending from the unemployed compared to those w/ guaranteed jobs.
UI is temporary, which makes matters worse. Even if it were permanent, it still won't resolve the problem of job scarcity.

Nations who once achieved tight full employment through active labor market policies demonstrate that unemployment does NOT fluctuate the same way it does w/o them. Direct employment, ELR type policies diminish drastically/even eliminate these amplitudes (eg postwar Japan/Sweden)

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