BC ECONOMY
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UK’s £35bn fashion industry warns of “decimation” from #brexit - big names sign open letter to @BorisJohnson urging action. Many of 50,000 SMEs on the rack due to VAT, customs and work permit issues. Stay with me/1

 @BorisJohnson You can read the full text of the letter here, co-ordinated by Fashion Round Table @FashionRoundTab, but tl;dr it says that #Brexit has left a "gaping hole" in an industry that relies of free movement of professionals. It's a familiar cry /2

https://t.co/gGurZTIcho
@BorisJohnson @FashionRoundTab The industry, already whacked by #COVID19, is now discovering that cross-border sales are a horror (VAT, Customs, long delays) and models, stylists, photographers that used to blat around Europe can't any more. They need permits, for themselves, for their gear /3
It is on one level amazing that this is only just fully dawning - as the musician industry found out recently - but fashion is not just big names and big companies. It's actually a mountain of small companies and sole traders often that feed into a huge (£35bn) industry /4
I've written about fashion models issue before (they need tier-5 sponsorship visas) and how that will erode London's status as a hub, but this goes so much wider than this - hence the #dontmakefashionhistory campaign - and comes down the lack of a mobility chapter in the deal /5
This campaign has some big names...400 have signed, including @twiggy @YLBofficialsite Yasmin Le Bon, Nick Knight, @RoksandaIlincic @laurabailey_uk and serious industry players, who now see how badly an industry like fashion gets squeezed by #brexit /6
@Twiggy @YLBofficialsite @RoksandaIlincic @laurabailey_uk These luminaries want some kind of 'fix'...as Helen Brocklebank, CEO of @Walpole_UK says 42% per cent of UK luxury export sales are from the EU. The #Brexit costs and admin mean many of her members "have concluded they simply can’t afford to continue selling to those countries"/7
@Twiggy @YLBofficialsite @RoksandaIlincic @laurabailey_uk @Walpole_UK Isabel Ettedgui, the chief executive of Savile Row brand Connolly, which sells Scottish cashmere and manufactures leather goods in Spain says its an existential challenge for "a 185-year-old company that holds the Royal Warrant" /8
@Twiggy @YLBofficialsite @RoksandaIlincic @laurabailey_uk @Walpole_UK Katharine Hamnett, the fashion designer best known for political T-shirts and championing ethical business practices, says "brands will die" without a radical overhaul of customs & VAT arrangements /9
@Twiggy @YLBofficialsite @RoksandaIlincic @laurabailey_uk @Walpole_UK These are big names, but they are the front of house for a huge number of small traders - the button makers, the jewellery makers, the leather workers, stylists etc that fitted into an industry that has grown up on free movement - which is now at an end /10
@Twiggy @YLBofficialsite @RoksandaIlincic @laurabailey_uk @Walpole_UK And as Barnier aid @StefaanDeRynck observed after the musicians made similar pleas...well, that's what happens when you don't have a 'mobility chapter ' in the deal' - welcome to a new world of #brexit /11

https://t.co/4FftDitAKr
@Twiggy @YLBofficialsite @RoksandaIlincic @laurabailey_uk @Walpole_UK @StefaanDeRynck So where is the British government in all this? Well, pretty impotent really - it just issues statements saying it is working with industry, it wants to "seize new opportunities" and, oh, it has helplines that it spent money on...but then what else can it say? /12
Fashion is a big UK success story - 1.6% of UK GDP, growing 11% a year - and trading with New York or Tokyo or China really isn't going to help a lot of those SMEs offset the losses that come with a deal that makes it a pain to buy British, sell to the EU, hire a UK model /13
There are some things in the UK's gift that @FashionRoundTab is asking for - like putting garment workers on the occupation shortage list, but on the really big stuff - customs, VAT, free movement - well, that's what we asked for. We wanted to be Canada...now we are /14
@FashionRoundTab There is still hope in some industries that as #COVID19 lifts, as the UK erects the same customs borders as the EU in July (and EU traders and professionals feels the same pinch) that 'common sense will prevail and that easements and fixes will emerge..../15
@FashionRoundTab But given the politics at the moment - UK refusing EU ambo full recognition, the spats over #COVID19 vaccines, the clusterf*** over the Irish protocol last weekend, the appointment of Lord Frost "Captain Sovereignty" as chief #Brexit guy, I'm not sure I'd bet on it /16
@FashionRoundTab The fashion industry is of course right to campaign hard as it can, for whatever it can get, but as @SamuelMarcLowe has observed, there are hard limits - whether on professional services, or hubbing goods into the EU from the UK - on what can be achieved /17
@FashionRoundTab @SamuelMarcLowe The #COVID19 pandemic gives the govt some breathing space...but sooner or later, you'd think the government will have to start to explain what the point of all this is? Other than alluding to the mythical 'sea of opportunity'...which may start to grate when folks are drowning END

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

https://t.co/MdBbcI8vjd


@MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5
TAXATION BILL
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So. The hunt is on in Whitehall for #brexit dividends...to show some clear value in the freedoms given by Brexit.

As we report today one area being looked at is workers' rights...but it is politically difficult territory.

No cabinet decisions have been taken, but per sources, three potential areas been identified in Business Dept...

- the 48 Hour Week
- holiday pay/overtime calculations
- new EU rules on reporting hours worked...

All potentially possible post #brexit /2

The government says it has no intention of “lowering” workers’ rights....and notes that UK has actually gold-plated many EU regulations...BUT (think of government saying it won't "lower" animal welfare standards)...the devil will all be in the detail, if and when it comes /3

So the government likes to talk about ensuring workers’ rights are protected but ALSO making sure businesses has freedoms and flexibility to grow...so one man's reduction in rights is another freedom to get richer/work harder/be more prosperous. It depends how you sell it. /4

So take this 2017 story from The Sun on the cash bonanza that will be rained down on hardworking families by Brexiteers' (long standing) desire to scrap the 48-hour week. Overtime booooom..../5

https://t.co/QLqQ7rCzkv
BREXIT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🚨🚚🚛🚨🚨email from Robert Hardy @RobHardyFR8 whose Customs Clearance Consortium is part of govt’s £200m scheme for GB-NI border warns of “huge shortage” of customs agents. Via @SJAMcBride /1

https://t.co/WoLWdI8LoF


He adds: “Export from GB with import to Ireland [is] amongst the most complicated...We expect heavy volumes at Dover from tonight as GB exports start to ramp up and many transporters do not have transit and EU clearance in place.” ...remember @BrandonLewis ‘no border’ tweet 🙄/2


He then warns - as @RHARichardB had warned - that the issue is companies providing poorly cleansed/matched data...and announces CCC doesn’t have capacity to raise docs in mainland EU/3


This is example of what Biz needs to do when moving agri foods - hauliers and vets tell me there is still no solution from Defra/Daera on how to do multiple pickups that require export health certificates at each stop (not uncommon) /4


In the next week or two we’ll see how these issue play into supply chains - and the issue that trucks flow in a cycle, GB-NI/IE-GB...so you need enough returning to keep the flow going. /5
FINANCE
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW: 🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚚🍤🐟🚢🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨 Building of Brexit border posts faces delays via...industry calling for delay to July 1 U.K. #brexit border roll out - my latest via ⁦@FinancialTimes⁩

This goes back to last year, when UK gov got £430m of bids for new Border Control Posts and only funded £194m worth - and those bids that won took a 33pc 'haircut'. Result, everyone unhappy - those that got nothing, and those that won, got not enough

The result is that ports looking to build BCPs to accommodate new border coming in from July 1 say they haven't got enough money. They want either delays to border on July 1, or flexible implementation. /3

So as @timgmorris of @UKMajorPorts group tells me: “We need urgent action from the government to show flexibility either on the July 1 deadline or what is required on that date....or accept potentially serious implications for traffic flows this summer." /4

@timgmorris @UKMajorPorts As @richard_bpa of @britishports says “There is now a real danger that customs infrastructure won’t be ready by July in some ports and we’re urging ministers to take a pragmatic approach to ensure that goods can continue moving at those locations,” /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The UK refusing to give full diplomatic status the EU's mission in London is baffling at at time when @BorisJohnson is trying to connect with @JoeBiden - because it recalls what Trump administration did to the EU ambassador back in 2019. Stay with

@JoeBiden The spat has been going for a while - we reported it in May, when the #Brexit trade talks were getting testy and - I assumed - it was the UK seeking a bit of leverage as the talks progressed. But we have a deal...and still no deal on the EU

@JoeBiden Essentially the UK government wants to treat the @EUdelegationUK as a "international organisation based in London" - and not accord it full diplomatic status, as almost every other country in the world does, including the United States /3

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK Indeed when EU formed it's External Action Service (EEAS) the UK supported the idea that EU representatives should be full ambassadors - a fact reflected in the Treaty of Lisbon which we signed - and which reflected on fact EU had a currency, made laws etc. /4

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK It took some time for everyone to recognise this, but after @BarackObama came to power in 2016 even the USA did the same....then along came Donald Trump and in 2019 surreptitiously downgraded the status of the EU ambassador @D0Sullivan /4
BREXIT

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Sam Parker \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f2
Sam Parker 🇺🇲...
@SamParkerSenate
1. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY" https://t.co/BXdtcNxrVf


2. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY"


3. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY"


4. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY"


5. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY"
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Moses Kagan
Moses Kagan
@moseskagan
1/ How to raise a real estate fund (and, ideally, avoid getting sued)

Have warned everyone it’s better to raise capital deal-by-deal, bc it’s easier to raise & bc it's better for the sponsor. Still, there’s interest in learning how to do a fund… so, here goes.

2/ Don’t think of doing this unless you have a record of successful deals, ideally mostly/all in the same asset class / strategy.

Remember: You will be asking LPs to invest in YOU; they need to feel like you know what you’re doing.

3/ Really helps to have a list of prospective LPs BEFORE you start your raise. The more high-quality leads you have, the more likely you are to succeed. (I built my list via my blog initially; now twitter leads predominate - see my bio.)

4/ Find an experienced attorney. Doesn’t need to be a huge, expensive firm, but you want someone who has done a lot of private offerings before. Don’t agree to a big fee yet… at first, you just want a few hrs of her time for advice.

5/ Find an experienced CPA. Ideally, your existing CPA has worked on a lot of private deals before. If not, get a new one. Prospective LPs need confidence that someone good is overseeing the bookkeeping and doing the tax prep.
ECONOMY
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Robin Wigglesworth
Robin Wigglesworth
@RobinWigg
A thread on an interesting report by Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer, the bank's chief global equity strategist. He points out that Goldman's "Bear Market Risk Indicator" is looking ominous.


There are three factors that suggest that the recent stability could evaporate and that equities are "about to enter a sustained bear market", Oppenheimer says.

First is the fact that growth, inflation and interest rate outlook is unfriendly for equities.


Second is that greater volatility, such as multiple corrections and new peaks (which we've seen in 2018) tend to presage a full bear market.


Here is Goldman's data showing how falls and bounces tend to come ahead of "the dramatic final fall".
ECONOMY
Patrick Chovanec
Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon RELATIVE to real economic activity. This last part is key.

Also, measuring “the money supply” is a tricky thing, because it lives and breathes with the economy.
ECONOMY
Rayburn
Rayburn
@RayburnTime
@Lol_0fficial @HoodieMorr @shoe0nhead Oh my goodness. Economic interests -absolutely- tie into this. You need to think about 1) that there are different factions involved & 2) people see economic interest more broadly than just govt spending. On the first point, evangelicals have been part of the Republican base B1/X

@HoodieMorr @shoe0nhead since the party became identical with movement conservatism, but movement conservatism only became significant as an ideology because of coalition building. Movement conservatism brought together the hawks, laissez faire economics, and cultural conservatives. B2/X

@HoodieMorr @shoe0nhead Evangelicals have always been the best organized element of the cultural conservative faction. Trump's coalition is a new one and it includes cultural conservatives, but that is the only element that is unchanged - and really even it is somewhat different.
B3/X

@HoodieMorr @shoe0nhead A minor difference is accepting Obergefell (which has made it possible for openly gay people to be highly visible members of the new coalition), but the main difference is that social conservatives no longer make a priority of the politician as an individual
B4/X

@HoodieMorr @shoe0nhead as opposed to focusing on politicians merely as conduits through which government is affected. The foreign policy contingent changed completely. The hawks are just gone from Trump's coalition. Instead there's a deep skepticism of interventionism, but without the desire B5/x
ECONOMY

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An irony of facebook's situation.

Sheryl got her MBA at Harvard. One of the most famous cases (Extra Strength Tylenol) in one of the most famous classes (Business History) she took: in 1982, someone put cyanide in Extra Strength Tylenol capsules and killed 7 people in Chicago.

What do you do when someone turns your product into a weapon? When they use the system you built to harm? James Burke, CEO of J&J, was shockingly open with the public, he pulled the product and made significant packaging changes to make product safer (but not tamper-proof).

He over-shared every step along the way re investigation, redesign, stood up as both CEO and human. The reintroduction of new Extra Strength Tylenol succeeded. Burke saved the brand.

But four years later it happened again. A killer put cyanide in the capsules, this time a woman in Yonkers died. Same CEO, Burke, pulled the product again, completely changed the form factor from capsule to caplet and relaunched *again*. It worked *again*. How'd they do that?

Burke (CEO) tapped J&Js goodwill bank account w/ the public. Two big withdrawals from that bank account in four years + 8 dead bodies! But his honesty, openness, humanity (choked up about the deaths more than once), humility kept the goodwill bank balance positive the whole time.
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Some ofthe biggest breakouts occur after Volatility Contraction, the analogy is that more a spring is pressed, higher it jumps whenever it gets released.

There is a VCP Scanner on chartink (Not mine). This may also be used to find potential Breakouts.
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foone
foone
@Foone
You want to know something about how bullshit insane our brains are?
OK, so there's a physical problem with our eyes: We move them in short fast bursts called "saccades", right? very quick, synchronized movements.
The only problem is: they go all blurry and useless during this

having your vision turn into a blurry mess every time you move your eyes is obviously not a good idea, so our brains hide it from us. Now, imagine you're an engineer and you have this problem.

You've got some obvious solutions you could do.
1. make the vision go black during movement. (Some VR games do this!)
2. just keep showing the last thing we saw prior to movement

both are good options with different downsides, but OH NO. this is assuming everything makes sense and is chronological and (regular) logical.
Your brain does neither of these options, really.

first, it basically puts your visual system on "pause". You're not seeing blackness or even nothing, you're just not seeing period.
then when you finish your saccade, it shows you what you now see at the new position. and then it pretends it can time travel.
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Krugman is, of course, right about this. BUT, note that universities can do a lot to revitalize declining and rural regions.


See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:

And see this thing that I wrote:

And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:

And see this other thing that I wrote:
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Stephen Fasenfeld \U0001f600
Stephen Fasenfeld 😀...
@fasenfeld
1. “Who Are Ireland’s Members Of The World Economic Forum Implementing The Great Reset In 2021 ? 🧵1/28

🕵️🔎 Politicians, Musicians, Clergy, Bankers, Journalists, Human Rights, Artificial Intelligence, Sustainability, Corporations & Agriculture


2. In previous threads I have looked at 🇮🇪 key players in the Trilateral Commission as well as 🇮🇪 people who have attended the Bilderberger meetings. I also looked at the 🇮🇪 in the Young Global Leaders which is a site run by the WEF. You will see a lot of crossover between them.

3. The purpose of this thread is to compile all the Irish members into one thread for ease of access and reading rather than having to dive through the WEF site. This is by no means definitive and I will be adding more over time when they pop out of the woodwork.

4. Ireland’s WEF members are drawn from all walks of life but can be split into 2 separate areas. The WEF calls the first category “people” and the 2nd one “agenda contributors”. In total Ireland has a minimum of 61 members. Some of the names will be familiar and others will not

5. In this thread I’m just going to concentrate on the 21 people (there are probably a lot more). There are also 40 “agenda contributors” which I will cover in a separate thread. The agenda contributors are those who write articles or do research for the WEF site.
ECONOMY