Will start this thread with a disclaimer. I have never invested a rupee in cryptos 😀

But I have studied bull and bear cycles and financial bubbles extensively. Saw 1992, 2000, 2008 with own eyes. The first one as a novice, the next two when I knew to analyze

The amount of chatter I am seeing in friends, family and social media about cryptos has gone through the roof. For everyone, it's a dream to make 100x or even 1000x easily. Basically, become stinking rich easily
( it never happens )
In any financial bubble, the top is made in extreme speed and violence. The distribution happens on the way down. Unless one saw the rates of 65k on bitcoin, one wouldn't buy at 30-35k or 20k. That 65k is an anchor point which leads to greed
During the tulipmania, a single piece of tulip reached a price of $750,000 in today's money. When we see that history, we think "what idiots". But consider this, as of now meme coins generated by someone in their garage are being traded at absurd prices
Then there is this joke called NFT. A piece of "digital art" basically made by someone on their computer ( who is not even a known artist) are being sold for millions of dollars
Whatever logic crypto fanatics throw at me to justify these prices or that they will go higher fails to convince me that the future generation will not call us "what idiots". We are in a manic bubble like tulipmania or even bigger
----end ---
I leave you with this chart of HFCL, the most darling stock of the 2000 bull run. I knew quite a few "smart " traders who got in at 1400-1600 range and could never sell
What I think will happen. During distribution also, there is huge volatility with price going up and down to "lure". Remember, at any bubble the prices are #always justified by logic ( which are new and against convention). Like Harshad Mehta's "replacement cost theory"

More from Subhadip Nandy

The most important question now on the mind of all analysts and traders. Is this a bear market rally or is this the start of a bull move. Retweeting this as I will need a few tweets to explain my view


Everyone knows the HH-HL or LH-LL as per Dow theory. This can be a bit confusing on how one marks the Highs and Lows. Long back, I picked up this trick from one of the neo-Dow theorists on what to do in scenarios like this

Simply plot a 5 period exponential moving average on a different panel. A 5-EMA simply shows you a running weekly perspective and kind of smoothens the price where a single spike high/low is not of that much importance

You will see this 5-ema also making HH.HL.LH.LL. So now, rather than focusing on the highs/lows on the charts, focusing on highs/lows on the 5-ema gives a cleaner perspective

As per this charts, unless the 5-ema now closes above 17540 ( the ema, not Nifty price) I will not play this as a bull market. I will deal with this market as a counter move against the major bear trend

More from Crypto

1/ @MIT discussing the need for blockchain gateways to achieve interoperability across different blockchain networks, and to support the cross-blockchain mobility of virtual assets

https://t.co/PbjQkSlTT3

@quant_network are collaborating with MIT in the creation of ODAP

$QNT

2/ "In order for blockchain-based services to scale globally, blockchain networks must be able to interoperate with one another following a standardized protocol and interfaces (APIs)"

Gilbert founded ISO TC307 which 60 countries are working towards standardizing the interfaces


3/ "We believe that a blockchain gateway is needed for blockchain networks to interoperate in a manner similar
to border gateway routers in IP networks. Just as border gateway routers use the BGPv4 protocol to interact with one another in a peered fashion we believe that a...

4/ blockchain gateway protocol will be needed to permit the movement of virtual assets and related information across blockchain networks in a secure and privacy-preserving manner"

You can read more about the gateway protocol ODAP in this 21 tweet


5/
"We motivate the need for blockchain gateways and blockchain gateway protocols in the following summary:

✅Enables blockchain interoperability:
Blockchain gateways provide an interface for the interoperability between blockchain/DLT systems that operate distinct consensus...

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