Will start this thread with a disclaimer. I have never invested a rupee in cryptos 😀

But I have studied bull and bear cycles and financial bubbles extensively. Saw 1992, 2000, 2008 with own eyes. The first one as a novice, the next two when I knew to analyze

The most common problem faced by day-traders and it's easy solution which is extremely difficult to implement.
A thread.
( uses concepts I have discussed many times before in separate threads)

Problem : I have a good system, I understand charts and/or price action, but I simply can't make money. I hold my losses too long or ( this is most common) I get out of profitable positions too fast and cannot sit for the whole move

At many firms at NASDAQ, day-traders are seen as elite sportspersons playing in a difficult taxing game. That's why, they have regular sessions with sports psychologists. They are advised to follow the basic routine of sportspersons.
Train ---- Play tournaments --- Rest

The cycle repeats

We retail day-traders here neither rest nor train.

Rest = taking time off markets
Train = trading in markets in training mode

Understanding REST is easy, simply take time off markets and spend time with family or do something you love

Trend Ratio suggests major long positions has been built into Nifty and BNF over the weekend. If tomorrow we trade above the upper levels, stay bullish. Break of the Balance levels will mean these longs are trapped and can lead to fast downsides

Will not be in markets tomorrow due to some personal work, hence posted this today.

Nifty short covering on Friday given the strong move in Nifty fut is obvious. But what's interesting is the huge short covering on BNF with only 0.5% upmove in price. Morning should be bullish, then watch out how the OI behaves

Lastly, all the calculations for Upper/Lower/Balance/Trend Ratio are my own development and I won't share the formula or process. So request stop asking me about those. Thanks.

Working on two quantitative logic to analyze intraday trend and volatility. Nifty fut and BN fut charts attached.
Intraday Trend :: Blue = Uptrend , Red = Downtrend , Yellow = No Trend

Intraday Volatility :: Red = Volatile , Yellow = Normal , Gray =Quiet

Sharing one of my contra views. Adani Ent fut has had massive rise in cumulative OI and there has been a price brkout outside the range today. This means bears are trapped. Longs, whoever they are , are so strong that Adani has not sold off in this market mayhem (1/n)

If Nifty today sells off at SGX , bears will get more confidence to short tomorrow morning or will wait, they will not sqoff. I am expecting Adani to propel upto 160 very fast (2/n)

I will be using my day-trading system and my option strategies ( already in butterfly at 160) to trade this view. This stock is massively volatile with large bid-ask spreads and moves in jerks. Trading Adani requires skill, not for the faint hearted or slow traders (3/n)

I will be trading a major part thru options, continuously adjusting my positions as new data comes in, will be using my systems. Will use V_scalper to scalp futures. How you trade this is your issue, I WILL NOT provide any followup(4/n)

Forced to issue the last disclaimer because I seriously get affected by DMs from traders who cannot handle options positions or futures. Asking me about this in market hours will lead to immediate block . Best of luck (n/n)

1/  We've reached a critical inflection point in bitcoin's adoption curve.

A moment wholly unique in the history of markets.

Are you ready for what comes next? 👇

#Bitcoin

2/ A perfect storm of demand dynamics is driving #Bitcoin price.

I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.

3/ After years asleep at the wheel, institutional leaders are now jarred awake, en masse.

If they want this asset: they'll have to hustle, compete with the masses and FOMO in above ATH's.

Against a backdrop of scarcity unlike anything they've ever seen.

4/ They will buy *all* dips.

Their bots will not stop buying.

There isn't enough supply for all of them, and they know it.

5/ And the whales who accumulated much lower?

How much appetite will strong hands have to market sell, just to run stops?

In the opening hours of the greatest bull market of their lives.

In a liquidity crisis.

1/ crypto VC is going through an explosive 🧨 phase

there are big funds (>$500M AUM), a lot of small funds (<$50M AUM), and *tons* of prop firms + angels

i’ve done 15 deals in the last 3 months as an angel + small fund @CoinSharesCo VC.

observations + implications... 👇🏾

2/ the big firms need to deploy in size - $5M checks and up

a $250M fund could do a $5-10M deal every month for two years and still be under-allocated

and there aren’t enough companies raising series B / C / D rounds!!!

every deal i’ve done lately is under $50M valuation

3/ so we see firms competing to take down entire rounds.

a recent series A financing had two firms competing to take down the ENTIRE ROUND, and it eventually got upsized, a LOT.

if a company is putting up user acquisition / growth and a revenue story, it’s highly competitive

4/ most projects and co’s don’t need money tho - why would a founder take 20-40% dilution when they’re banking cash and crypto? so they do 5-10%

so the valuations go up, but available allocations go down, resulting in an even bigger squeeze on allocators who *need* to deploy

5/ add in the onslaught of non-crypto M&A that’s coming, which is culling the herd of investable unicorns

add in the wave of SPACs and direct listings taking later stage opportunities out

there just aren’t enough places to put capital in size rn

what’s a fund to do?

On the importance of leverage for the crypto ecosystem.
A long time ago, BNP Paribas bought a retail forex exchange, because they thought they'd get an insight into forex trading flows and positions. What they quickly discovered, is that the website was a muppet slaughterhouse.

People would get stopped out ALL THE TIME because they used too much leverage. Over 90% of them lost money in a consistent way. Those are worse than even casino odds.
That's why around 2005, you had so many forex trading websites popping up. They would offer up to 500x leverage.

The higher the leverage, the better (for the website).
This became such a huge trend that regulators stepped in, and introduced maximum leverage rules. Something like x30 for forex, if I remember correctly. All of a sudden, all the ads and Premier League sponsorships vanished.

Forex gambling is still around, but not nearly as profitable, because it takes time for people to lose their money with a pitiful x30 leverage. Currencies usually don't move by 3% in a day. It can take weeks for an amateur trader to lose it all. Plus the adrenaline rush is gone.

Enter crypto.
It's hard to explain how one-sided leveraged crypto trading is. Traders don't stand a chance. With currencies, you could expect to extract SOME money from real world flows. In crypto, there are no real world flows. It's just traders against traders against insiders.