BC BUSINESS
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

The interview with CNBC of @chamath is a much watch because there is so much insight hidden underneath.

There are many things that caught my attention. The one thing was the abstraction that hedge fund strategies are all 'momentum' plays. What it seems to imply is that the marshaling of resources at an opportune time drives the future behavior of a stock.
From basic physics, we know that momentum is mass times velocity. So any 'momentum' tactic employs the variation of mass, velocity or both. Wrt stocks, mass is money and velocity is speed of trade.
We cannot argue that there are benefits of scale associated with having more money. Also, high-frequency trading has shown the value of high-speed trading. So in an abstract sense, market manipulation can involve a kind of momentum play.
The objective of stock trading is to buy a financial instrument at a low price and sell it at a higher price. The purpose of a momentum play is to front-run the decision process of other traders such that one acquires the assets before a decision is made.
There are two basic tactics at play here. One is to act faster than other participants. The second is to ensure that one's action sets up the future lucrative scenario where one can consummate one's trade.
It is necessary to find that greater fool. In the case of shorting a stock into bankruptcy, finding the greater fool is taken out of the equation. A company that declares bankruptcy unilaterally wipes out the worth of its stocks. Stock owners have no choice in the matter.
This is what hedge funds that short attempt to do. Of course, the problem with shorting is that it is the opposite of exchanging money to own an asset A short is instead a commitment to buy back stock at a later time. A short, requires assets in a margin account as collateral.
But shorting is like pushing against a string. It's different from going long that is like pulling a string. Someone with infinite cash can buy up all the stock that is available, hence pushing its price up until the limit where you've bought all the stock.
As the GME debacle shows, apparently you can short over 100% of the stocks available. This isn't really possible. What is happening is that the hedge fund is making a commitment to buy over 100% of outstanding stock. This works if the company goes bankrupt.
What happens then if the trade goes in the wrong direction. The loses has no limits. It is the scenario where a hedge fund is obligated to acquire all the stock (and more) of the company. The limit is when the hedge fund runs out of money.
But what happens to the short commitments when the hedge funds runs out of money?
The commitments can only be closed by covering (i.e. buying) back the shares, but this is impossible! You cannot buy more than 100% of something. So how did a hedge fund close its position without impacting the market?
They paid someone to take on their previous commitments. In other words, someone else is short.
The thing about markets is that there are many kinds of commitments (that we call derivatives) that allow one to make money in any way that the market moves. You can make money even if the market does not move!
Money is made in wall street by having a crystal ball or being able to manipulate the behavior of the market so it leads to your expectations. Like every game, manipulation is a kind of deceptive strategy.
Games like Go and Chess don't have deception as a component. That is because all information is transparent and available for both players. In contrast, game-like Poker and Stratego have an element of deception. Deception is necessary in games that have info that is private.
@chamath in the interview reveals the true source of unfairness in the markets. The reality that hedge funds are colluding in their plans to manipulate the markets. This can be fixed if we take his suggestion. That is, the positions of hedge funds are made public for inspection.
The curious thing is that decentralized finance (see: cryptocurrencies) have transparency. Anyone can mine the blockchains to see the various commitments that are being made.
A problem that gold bugs have always complained about the commodity markets is that fictitious supplies of gold are sold in the market and are only resolved to reality at the closing of the contracts.
We saw this in 2020 where people bought oil contracts and upon the closing of the contract (i.e. the delivery) found out that they didn't have the storage to acquire the supply. There was a mad rush to pay people to acquire oil (hence negative price).
With cryptocurrencies, you can't sell a coin that you don't have. The other fascinating thing about cryptocurrencies is that new supply is created all the time due to mining. For Bitcoin and Ethereum there is constant 24x7 inflationary pressure. This leads to its robustness.
Decentralized finance has the robust characteristic that the rules are difficult to game. Now we see hedge funds short $GME make a Trumpian play. That is to stop the count! They are going on TV to make the case that regulators step in and call the game in their favor.
If you can't win the game, you can at least try to rig the referees! As people like Trump has shown, the rich have always played this game of favoritism where their rules are different from the rules everyone else plays.
Completed here: https://t.co/UIywmt4evY

More from Carlos E. Perez

Carlos E. Perez
Carlos E. Perez
@IntuitMachine
Nice to discover Judea Pearl ask a fundamental question. What's an 'inductive bias'?


I crucial step on the road towards AGI is a richer vocabulary for reasoning about inductive biases.

explores the apparent impedance mismatch between inductive biases and causal reasoning. But isn't the logical thinking required for good causal reasoning also not an inductive bias?

An inductive bias is what C.S. Peirce would call a habit. It is a habit of reasoning. Logical thinking is like a Platonic solid of the many kinds of heuristics that are discovered.

The kind of black and white logic that is found in digital computers is critical to the emergence of today's information economy. This of course is not the same logic that drives the general intelligence that lives in the same economy.
FOR LATER READ
Carlos E. Perez
Carlos E. Perez
@IntuitMachine
We wake up each day with the same attention budget as everyone else. This is the one thing all humans equally share.

Spending that attention budget by doing this is what gives meaning to our lives.

It's is only through doing that we learn. It is only through learning that we find meaning.

Yet many of us waste attention budget exclusively on consumption. Seeking the random dopamine hits that tickle our curiosity. Yet we seek only the convenient things to do.

Activities that are convenient, that takes little effort don't consume a lot of attention. But enough of these small distractions will. But unfortunately, there's little learning taking place.
LIFE
Advertisement
Carlos E. Perez
Carlos E. Perez
@IntuitMachine
Those trained as physicists strive to see the world in terms of symmetries and processes that break symmetries. It's a meta-principle that guides their questioning.

This is very different from how many are taught physics (I guess in high school). We come to know of physics as consisting of laws that describe the behavior of inanimate (or is it indifferent) objects? These laws are described as expressions of equalities (i.e. equations).

But laws like Newton's f=ma or Einstein's e=mc^2 are derived from a higher meta principal. These principles are known as conservation laws. Energy, momentum, angular momentum are all conserved.

Conservation laws however are also derived from a higher principle. A conservation law implies that something remains the same as the situation of study change. Energy conservation implies that it is that something that does not change in time. In short, a symmetry.

This idea that laws are derived from conservation principles that is derived from symmetries is at the core of the study of physics. The laws of physics are only authoritative as long as they don't violate a higher principle. Ultimately, that principle is all about symmetry.
EDUCATION
Carlos E. Perez
Carlos E. Perez
@IntuitMachine
I suspect that Emergentism and Enactivism have very little appeal in a world dominated by Reductionists.

To get funding one must present a reductionist idea. A perfect example of this is the European Blue Brain project.

I also suspect that pitches that show how one can get a competitive advantage over the rest of humanity has a much greater appeal than pitches that show how one can that has a unified view of humanity.

My book 'The Deep Learning Playbook' out sold my other book 'Artificial Intuition' by a metric mile. I am however more proud of the latter book.

That's because the word 'playbook' conveys a thing that once possessed gives one new power. In contrast, the word 'intuition' does not feel like a think but more of a process (a thought process). Processes don't appear like things that can be owned.
GOVERNMENT
Carlos E. Perez
Carlos E. Perez
@IntuitMachine
My attempt to map the research *doctrines* of various groups working on Artificial General Intelligence.


Although one might see names of individuals here as well as organizations, take it just as identification of the organization behind the person and a very narrow slice of their overall research portfolio.

Here is a @swardley map that captures the relationship of doctrine with other individual and organizational processes.


We can capture a party's doctrine by either an explicitly stated agenda or an aggregation of the kind of approach that is pursued. A doctrine is an invariant property of the overall behavior of a party.

In this map one can see the conflict between different parties (compare @garymarcus with the deep learning folks).
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

More from Business

\U0001f1ef\U0001f1f5 \U0001f1e9\U0001f1ea JK Trump Supporter Japan\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
🇯🇵 🇩🇪 JK Trump Support...
@TTrumpSJapan
🇺🇸#TreasonAgainstAmerica 1/12


🇺🇸#TreasonAgainstAmerica 2/12


🇺🇸#TreasonAgainstAmerica 3/12


🇺🇸#TreasonAgainstAmerica 4/12


🇺🇸#TreasonAgainstAmerica 5/12
BUSINESS
Nick Huber
Nick Huber
@sweatystartup
If you're new to real estate twitter this is a must-read.

A thread on how most real estate folks structure deals with outside investors.

Most GPs utilize the "preferred equity" structure when they raise money from outside investors. They "syndicate" deals.

Here's the basics:

The person (or team of people) putting the deal together is the "sponsor". Also called general parter. Referred to on twitter as the GP.

They find the property, do all the work, hire the management company and take fees. They often co-sign debt and always secure the financing.

The investor is generally passive, doing no work and putting in cash. This is the "limited partner". Referred to on twitter as the LP.

They don't co-sign debt. They simply read reports and ask the sponsors questions and cash checks every month (if the deal is going well).

There are two equity classes.

"Preferred equity" belongs to the LPs. Cash talks, so this is a higher class of shares. They are first in the "capital stack" behind the debt (bank loan).

"Common equity" belongs to the sponsor. They are generally last in the capital stack.

Sponsors generally co-invest. That means they hold both equity classes. A 10% co-invest is standard.

That means the GP has skin in the game. His 10% co-invest makes him both an LP and a GP.
BUSINESS
Advertisement
Travis
Travis
@coloradotravis
It's endlessly fascinating how economic datapoints get interpreted.

When I was in charge of a P&L, the guy who ran Finance for us and I had what we called the 'shelf plan.'

There were maybe 3-4 of us who knew it existed.

What's a shelf plan?
1/

Well it's a plan you keep on the shelf (full FP&A model), that you hope you never have to use.

It reduces forward hires, cuts back various line items (typically ad spend, travel, that sort of thing).

Oh, it also has a big fat RIF in there.

That's why we don't talk about it.
2/

Why have a plan instead of winging it?

Because this is where companies (particularly young companies) sometimes err. They do little cuts - 2-3% here and there, preserving as much headcount as they can, that sort of thing.

This is incorrect.
3/

If you're at the point where you need to make material changes to your forward P&L, at 2-3% RIF will be followed by another.

And another.

And this series of progressive cuts will cripple morale, incrementally reducing the productivity of the staff you retain to survive.
4/

And so the shelf plan cuts deep.

Your goal is to go from being a peacetime machine to a wartime machine, so you gotta lean out quick. Can't do that without a plan, hence the need to have one.

~30% cut is what you need.

And then you need to tell everyone left they're safe.
5/
BUSINESS
Chris Hladczuk
Chris Hladczuk
@chrishlad
Bill Gates got lucky.

With an IBM deal he signs in 1980.

Here's the hidden truth about the rise of Microsoft:

So we all know the Bill Gates story.

A brilliant kid who loves computers.

Drops out of Harvard in 1975 to start Microsoft with his childhood friend, Paul Allen.

Gates and Allen originally sell code interpreters to companies like MITS (Micro Instrumentation and Telemetry System).

In 1976, their revenue is $16,000.

By 1978, Microsoft hits $1 million in revenue.

But they were far from taking over the world.

Until...

In 1980, IBM asks Gates to build them an operating system for their new personal computers.

He had never done this.

So Gates directs them to his friend Gary Kildall from Digital Research.

The IBM-Digital Research meeting goes poorly.

The two parties argue over non-disclosure agreements and other legal issues.

Eventually, IBM offers Digital Research $250,000 to build the operating system.

They refuse.

"We will only do royalties."
BUSINESS
Romeen Sheth
Romeen Sheth
@RomeenSheth
I love Twitter.

It’s truly the Town Square of the Internet.

But finding the diamond in the rough voices can be tough.

Here are 20 of my favorite people to follow:

1. Alex Lieberman - @businessbarista

Alex writes extensively about the Founder journey.

The cool part is he’s lived everything he talks about - starting from $0 and selling for $75M with hardly any outside capital raised.

My favorite piece:


2. Ryan Breslow - @ryantakesoff

Ryan is a Top 1% founder.

This guy is a machine - he’s built 2 unicorns before the age of 27.

Ryan spells out lessons on fundraising, operating and scaling.

My favorite piece:


3. Jesse Pujji - @jspujji

Jesse is who I think of when I think “bootstrapping.”

He bootstrapped his company to an 8-figure exit and now shares stories about other awesome bootstrappers.

He’s also got great insight into all things growth marketing:


4. Post Market - @Post_Market

Post puts out some of the most thoughtful investment insights on this platform.

It’s refreshing because Post cuts through the hype and goes deep into the business model.

Idk who he/she/it is, but the insights are 💣.
BUSINESS

You May Also Like

Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI KUMARIAMMAN, KANYAKUMARI (TN)
#bharatmandir #navratri2021

Created by Maharshi Parasurama and also one among the 108 Shakthi Peethas in the world. The name Kanyakumari stands for Kanya(Virgin) and Kumari(girl).
Devi took this form to vanquish the demon Banasura
@GunduHuDuGa


Once, Banasura(grand son of Mahabali) obtained a boon from Shiva that he could be vanquished only by a virgin.
So, Devi took the form of a kumari and started meditating with the desire to marry Shiva at Suchindram.
Pleased Shiva fixed the midnight hour for marriage with Devi.


Devarshi Narada knew that the marriage would end the chance of killing Banasura. So, he assumed the form of a cock and crowed. Shiva returned back to Suchindram thinking that it was dawn.
Angered, Devi cursed that all food and articles meant for wedding turn into sand and shells


When Banasura heard about Devi’s beauty, he tried to take her by force. Devi, then, killed him and granted the wish of Devas to remain there always protecting them.
The murti of Devi stands with a rosary in hand. Her diamond nose-ring is said to be visible even from the sea.


Once an ancient mariner mistook it for a lighthouse and sailing towards it, his ship wrecked upon the Kanya Kumari rocks. In order to prevent such a tragedy from happening again, the eastern door of the shrine is opened only on five special occasions throughout the year.
ALL
Engineer Who
Engineer Who
@Engr_Who
A long but must read thread. Udaybhan Rathore and myth making in Maratha history: An analysis. This is the thread on Udaybhan Rathore, who he was and how over the time period, his life was portrayed in maratha chronicles and pseudo history. (1/n)

Udaybhan rathore was the head of Bhinai thikana (84 villages) in Ajmer. He was the direct descendant of the famous Rao Chandrasen, Raja of Marwar (4th generation) who resisted Akbar all his life and never made any alliance with mughals like Maharana Pratap. (2/n)

Later in 1783, Maharaja of Jodhpur gave title of Raja to Bhinai family for their military service. Bhinai family and their direct descendant Raja Sh Mayuraj Singh still lives in Ajmer. Anyway coming to Udaybhan Rathore and story of Tanaji. (3/n)

Jai Singh's march on Shivaji and treaty of Purandar (1665) is a well known episode to repeat here. After getting the hill forts from Shivaji under the treaty, Jai Singh didn't have enough man-power to man every one of the small forts because of his next (4/n)

campaign against Bijapur. Jai Singh personally took over a couple of important forts like Kondhana (Sinhgarh), Purandar etc. Others were given to some mughals or their fortification walls destroyed. Jai Singh died in 1667 near Burhanpur while enroute to the north. (5/n)
INDIA
Advertisement
Vibhor Varshney
Vibhor Varshney
@nakulvibhor
On the occasion of youtube 20k and Twitter 70k members

A small tribute/gift to members

Screeners

technical screeners - intraday and positional both

before proceeding - i have helped you , can i ask you so that it can help someone else too

thank you

positional one

run - find #stock - draw chart - find levels

1- Stocks closing daily 2% up from 5 days
https://t.co/gTZrYY3Nht

2- Weekly breakout
https://t.co/1f4ahEolYB

3- Breakouts in short term
https://t.co/BI4h0CdgO2

4- Bullish from last 5

intraday screeners

5- 15 minute Stock Breakouts
https://t.co/9eAo82iuNv

6- Intraday Buying seen in the past 15 minutes
https://t.co/XqAJKhLB5G

7- Stocks trading near day's high on 5 min chart with volume BO intraday
https://t.co/flHmm6QXmo

Thank you
SCREENERS , ALL , NAKULSMIX
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
THE UNTOLD TALE OF THE LESSER KNOWN WARRIORS:JOGRAJ GURJAR & RAMPYARI GURJAR AND HOW DID THEY DEFEAT THE CRUELEST ISLAMIC INVADER, TIMUR LANG.

Timur Lang, was the founder of Timurid Empire. He was born in April 1336 CE, somewhere in central asia.


During his reign, he conquered Persia, Egypt, Central Asia and emerged as the most powerful and heinous ruler. He was a religious fanatic like the rest of the Islamic invaders who tried to invade India.

Timur Lang decided to invade India in 1398 as he heard about India's splendid wealth and had a desire to conquer India which his ancestor Genghis Khan couldn't do.


After Firoz Shah's demise in1388, Delhi Sultanate was in a state of political turmoil.During this time, Timur sent his grandson Pir Mohammad to attack Indian front. He invaded Multan&was able to defeat Iqbal Khan's brother but when he met with resistance,he asked help from Timur.


Iqbal Khan secured his hold on Delhi under Muhammad Tughluq after Firoz Shah died.
Timur provided the required back-up to his grandson with 100000 men approx. Timur sacked and plundered all the cities coming in his way &later in October 1398 reunited with his grandson.
ALL
yashstocks
yashstocks
@yashstocks
(1/3)

I am using only one indicator in the chart.
i.e DC(20) = Donchain Channel
I use 3 min chart and the DC period is 20, so DC high is basically the last 1 hour high & DC low is the last 1 hour low.
The middle line is the median of high and low.


(2/3)

Donchian channels are mainly used to identify the breakout of nifty/BNF.
We can take directional bias based on the indicator.
If nifty is breaking DC high, can take bullish view.
if it is breaking DC down, can take bearish view.
if it is in between, can trade range-bound.

(3/3)

We can monitor nifty/banknifty futures with volume along with DC.
If the volume is 1.5 to 2 times the average volume and if DC high/low is taken out then it can be a strong bullish/bearish signal.
SCREENERS