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Travis
@coloradotravis 4 years, 8 months ago 1130 views

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It's endlessly fascinating how economic datapoints get interpreted.

When I was in charge of a P&L, the guy who ran Finance for us and I had what we called the 'shelf plan.'

There were maybe 3-4 of us who knew it existed.

What's a shelf plan?
1/

Well it's a plan you keep on the shelf (full FP&A model), that you hope you never have to use.

It reduces forward hires, cuts back various line items (typically ad spend, travel, that sort of thing).

Oh, it also has a big fat RIF in there.

That's why we don't talk about it.
2/

Why have a plan instead of winging it?

Because this is where companies (particularly young companies) sometimes err. They do little cuts - 2-3% here and there, preserving as much headcount as they can, that sort of thing.

This is incorrect.
3/

If you're at the point where you need to make material changes to your forward P&L, at 2-3% RIF will be followed by another.

And another.

And this series of progressive cuts will cripple morale, incrementally reducing the productivity of the staff you retain to survive.
4/

And so the shelf plan cuts deep.

Your goal is to go from being a peacetime machine to a wartime machine, so you gotta lean out quick. Can't do that without a plan, hence the need to have one.

~30% cut is what you need.

And then you need to tell everyone left they're safe.
5/

So what's the best way to do that?

Well you turn around to the staff that remains and you reallocate some of that capital to them (boost their comp) and tell them their jobs are safe but you need them bolted in for battle.

You give them raises.
/6

More from Travis

Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis

Why do we like blowing bubbles?

(This is not a bitcoin thread, go away)
1/

So I'm not a “neurotypical” (a fact discovered late in life) and while we won't go into the details here, the net output of that fact appears to be that I'm wired to take a more… ‘zoological’ approach to understanding humanity.

Hence the quirky Animal Planet threads.
2/

The distance afforded by non-participation in certain things (the weakness) also occasionally lends itself to a bit more subtlety with pattern detection (the strength).

And so I started painting a picture about bubbles.
3/

And in my mind’s eye there formed a cluster of ladybugs. They were happy, far from from eating aphids, and content on their beautiful tree.

And then one started flapping.
4/

At first the other ladybugs ignored it, but after a time its persistence was intoxicating.

And so a few more flapped.

And as is the way with exercise, certain endorphins were released

And it felt good to flap.
5/

Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis

Let’s talk about money and the State (Sovereign).

Since everyone constantly gets this wrong.
1/

So look: there never was a barter-centric state of nature.

That’s a nice story but when we look at the historical record, it’s just flat out false.

In point of fact:

- Debt predates money.
- Money predates barter.
2/

The way the Sovereign first got involved with debt was something like this:

King: “If you don’t give me 3 goats during harvest season, my soldiers will come burn your fucking house down.”

And in this way, the King originated a debt.

By fiat.
3/

But moving goats around sucks (horrible creatures) and is just sort of logistically annoying, so a new plan was devised, like this:

King: “Same deal with the soldiers and the burning and the profanity, but now it’s 50 pieces of silver instead of goats.”

Presto! Money!
4/

Money is a token that settles debts - always has been. The reason it’s useful is because it allows society to function like an abacus with N players.

In lieu of just the sovereign playing debt, these tokens are ‘debt settlement bearer assets’ which allow…well... the economy
5/

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Travis
@coloradotravis

@evan_lorenz Exactly this.

Plus in a gold-based system, smaller entities (SMBs or sole proprietors) could presumably even self-custody to reduce the carrying cost of gold to zero.

This is not possible with bitcoin, in which one owns a share of a collective and equally distributed liability.

The hilarity of all this, to me, is that Bitcoin makes the most sense if viewed as a Marxist worker’s rebellion.

The central promise is UBI: buy tokens that increase in value forever, granting you wealth for doing nothing.

And the cost is the future.

Travis Kimmel
@coloradotravis

After much investigation and conversations with people on here, I’ve formed a relatively robust theory of what may be happening with Tether.

This thread will attempt to lay it out with neutral language for the purpose of discussion.
1/

Before we start, please note that ‘robust’ doesn’t mean ‘accurate’, it just means that:

1. the theory is internally consistent
2. it accounts for participant behavior

…but it’s important to remember that this is still hypothesis-stage thinking.
2/

First, let us note that the BTC ecosystem has clearly stated goals. They believe that:

1. Bitcoin is a new global reserve money.
2. They intend to create an alternative financial system around it.

Let’s just take them at their word and assume that’s directionally accurate.
3/

Next, a postulate: most people do not understand the current monetary system very well. This is exemplified by the “BRRR” meme and other variants of thinking which presume that the Fed prints money.

That’s not how the system actually works, as discussed elsewhere.
4/

In reality, what’s happening with the Fed is a bit more subtle and involves various forms of duration swaps and clerical activities that the populace at large gives more credence than those activities actually deserve.

Money is very complex.
5/

Travis
@coloradotravis

QE, Liquidity Removal, and the Alchemy of Money

I’ve been watching @MetreSteven say stuff like “QE removes liquidity” on here for a while after which people sort of stare blankly or roll their eyes.

Let’s give it one more go, via a traditionally quirky explainer.
1/

At the heart of every monetary system is an act of alchemy.

Let us start by describing this act: the act of monetary creation.

At the center of alchemy lies the Philosopher's Stone - the prime reagent for money creation.

For a long time this was gold.
2/

For if you had gold, you could lend against it.

From the Philosopher's stone of gold, we could spawn two things:

1. Circulating money
2. Debt

Money and debt are twins, both born of the philosopher's stone and their fates forever linked.
3/

For you see, there are rules which govern alchemy.

An alchemist is only allowed to create a certain amount of money for each philosopher's stone.

And the Debt was greater than the Money (due to interest), making the system inherently deflationary.
4/

And this deflationary nature drove the people to want more money in circulation.

So the rules of alchemy were evolved to allow each stone to create more money (fractional reserve banking).
5/

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$Alex Lieberman \u2615\ufe0f$

Alex Lieberman ☕️...
@businessbarista

Introducing "The Balloon Effect"

Many businesses & creators have experienced a similar pattern of success.

From @MrBeastYT and @MorningBrew to @oatly and @Rovio.

Let's break down what "The Balloon Effect" is and examples of it in real life.

Keep reading 👇

1/ What is "The Balloon Effect"?

It is a particular pattern of growth.

It is not Instagram's growth trajectory.

It is not https://t.co/5axsTUKek6's growth trajectory.

"The Balloon Effect" is defined by several years of hard work & grit complemented by slow, linear growth.

2/ And then one day, one month, or one quarter...everything changes.

A business hits a tipping point and its trajectory shifts entirely.

Gradual growth turns to exponential growth & your brand and your size explode.

Like a step function.

3/ Now, you're probably wondering.

Why is it called "The Balloon Effect"?

Because filling/popping a water balloon follows the exact pattern I just described (and so many businesses experience).

Long unsexy slog 👉 Exponential tipping point.

4/ Initially, you turn on the faucet & water takes up space in the empty balloon.

Through effort you open the faucet, yet the results are unexciting.

But it's what must be done for water (or growth) to happen at all.

It's not sexy, but it's necessary.

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Following @BAUDEGS I have experienced hateful and propagandist tweets time after time. I have been shocked that an academic community would be so reckless with their publications. So I did some research.
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?

Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir

BAU’s official Twitter account

BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU

Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find

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Carlos E. Perez
@IntuitMachine

The interview with CNBC of @chamath is a much watch because there is so much insight hidden underneath.

There are many things that caught my attention. The one thing was the abstraction that hedge fund strategies are all 'momentum' plays. What it seems to imply is that the marshaling of resources at an opportune time drives the future behavior of a stock.

From basic physics, we know that momentum is mass times velocity. So any 'momentum' tactic employs the variation of mass, velocity or both. Wrt stocks, mass is money and velocity is speed of trade.

We cannot argue that there are benefits of scale associated with having more money. Also, high-frequency trading has shown the value of high-speed trading. So in an abstract sense, market manipulation can involve a kind of momentum play.

The objective of stock trading is to buy a financial instrument at a low price and sell it at a higher price. The purpose of a momentum play is to front-run the decision process of other traders such that one acquires the assets before a decision is made.

Chris Powers
@fortworthchris

If I were looking to do my first real estate deal with zero prior experience and no money, here's what I'd do (I did).

I'd start with the target of buying a single-family, duplex, 3plex, or 4plex in an area close to where I lived and that I was familiar with.

I'd take an online RE course to get my license as quickly as possible (I did it in 2 weeks). Upon completion, I'd sign up for the MLS system so I could start looking at deals.

I'd call the listing agents involved and pepper them with questions about active and sold listings.

I'd also tell them about my plan to buy an investment property.

I'd call local banks or mortgage brokers to get an idea of loan terms I'd be able to qualify for. Rate, Loan Amount, LTV, Term, Guaranty, etc.

I'd be building relationships with these bankers along the way.

They should be able to give you an answer in 1-2 weeks on what you'll qualify for.

**Be sure to ask them what options you'd have with an FHA loan, 3.5% down government backed.**

I'd get laser focused and pick 1 or 2 neighborhoods and learn every single thing I could about the area.

I'd drive the streets, search public city planning for the area, know every proposed & ongoing development, talk to all the listing brokers that have properties on the market

Pat Oshaw
@ptoshee

This is a GREAT argument to pull up when talking to people about minimum wage. Some others nested below

"it doesn't affect me if companies pay low wages"

In reality, you're paying for it. Over 50% of people on food stamps are actively working. The leading employers are Walmart, McDonald's and Amazon.

As taxpayers, you're subsidizing corporations to pay literal poverty wages.
— Dan Price (@DanPriceSeattle) February 11, 2021

A large number of new jobs being created are minimum to low wage, so looking for a new job generally won’t increase pay.

Raising minimum wage helps things not directly related.

Helps Infant mortality? Yup.

Lowers Suicide? Yup.

Reduce smoking rates? You bet.

It also boosts the local economy! Minimum to low wage earners spend more % of their money, so an increase means more is spent, often in community!

Low paying jobs are often in sectors which would gain from this. More people spending money in your shop makes your business more money! Now you have more profits and increased labor costs are covered.

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Mitesh Patel
@Mitesh_Engr

How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
Good luck.

One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.

WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan

EVOLUTION OF CROWNS

The ancient Indian kings called a head crown as a Mukut and it would mostly constitute of a golden ornamental headgear like an oval cap with gems.

Sometimes it would also include a halo circle to show the divinity of the king

1/7

As it was considered that kings were appointment by the gods themselves. Example the kings of mewar considered themselves to be the ‘Diwan of eklingji')

But in most cases very few Mukut with halo effect have been found.

2/7

Samudragupta in the gupta era coin. You can see the helmet like headwear on him.

Till gupta era the solid golden head wear was used in most days of the monarch.

But since the onset of 8th century it reduced in usage and was now used only as a ceremonial headwear.

3/7

Whereas earlier the Maharaja had to wear the mukut whenever his court was in session.

Still mukut was being used prominently for ceremonial activities till recent times.

Maharaj Dahir of Sindh👇

4/7

But as times past the style of headwear also changed.

The kings mostly wore turbans ordained with pearls and gems while rarely anyone wore a true Mukut after 16th century.

Portrait of Sri Krishna Dev Raya👇

5/7

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Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal

MASTER THREAD on Short Strangles.

Curated the best tweets from the best traders who are exceptional at managing strangles.

• Positional Strangles
• Intraday Strangles
• Position Sizing
• How to do Adjustments
• Plenty of Examples
• When to avoid
• Exit Criteria

How to sell Strangles in weekly expiry as explained by boss himself. @Mitesh_Engr

• When to sell
• How to do Adjustments
• Exit

1. Let's start option selling learning.
Strangle selling. ( I am doing mostly in weekly Bank Nifty)
When to sell? When VIX is below 15
Assume spot is at 27500
Sell 27100 PE & 27900 CE
say premium for both 50-50
If bank nifty will move in narrow range u will get profit from both.
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) February 10, 2019

Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in

Few are selling 20-25 Rs positional option selling course.
Nothing big deal in that.
For selling weekly option just identify last week low and high.
Now from that low and high keep 1-1.5% distance from strike.
And sell option on both side.
1/n
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) November 3, 2019

1st Live example of managing a strangle by Mitesh Sir. @Mitesh_Engr

• Sold Strangles 20% cap used
• Added 20% cap more when in profit
• Booked profitable leg and rolled up
• Kept rolling up profitable leg
• Booked loss in calls
• Sold only

Sold 29200 put and 30500 call
Used 20% capital@44 each
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) April 12, 2019

2nd example by @Mitesh_Engr Sir on converting a directional trade into strangles. Option Sellers can use this for consistent profit.

• Identified a reversal and sold puts

• Puts decayed a lot

• When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold

Already giving more than 2% return in a week. Now I will prefer to sell 32500 call at 74 to make it strangle in equal ratio.

To all. This is free learning for you. How to play option to make consistent return.
Stay tuned and learn it here free of cost. https://t.co/7J7LC86oW0
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Brian Cates
@drawandstrike

Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"

For three years I have wanted to write an article on moral panics. I have collected anecdotes and similarities between today\u2019s moral panic and those of the past - particularly the Satanic Panic of the 80s.

This is my finished product: https://t.co/otcM1uuUDk
— Ashe Schow (@AsheSchow) September 29, 2018

The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.

1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!

2) "Repressed memory" syndrome

3) Facilitated Communication [FC]

All 3 led to massive abuse.

"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.

Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.

FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.

libertyandjusticeforal...
@Mark923to25

1. #Qanon told us that Saudi Arabia is a central piece of the puzzle in taking out the Deep State...we are watching the Deep State attempt to remove Crown Prince MBS and disrupt Pres Trump's administration's ties with MBS and the "new" Saudi/US coalition. Early in his admin,

2....@Potus sent Jared Kushner (JK) to SA on an undisclosed trip and told King Salman that business as usual was over, and if he wanted Pres Trump's support, Prince Alwaleed would have to be divested of $ and power; Alwaleed is one of top Deep State $ men and was tied to HRC.

3. @Potus knew that before he could begin cleansing the US and the rest of the world of the DS, he would have to cut one of the financial head's off the snake (Alwaleed). After JK met w/ King Salman, Alwaleed was arrested and divested of billions; MBS became leader of SA.

4. SA loves Pres Trump because he's a man of his word; SA could not trust Hussein or Clintons because they use SA for oil and leverage; SA has many factions, but essentially you have the new and upcoming SA that is attempting to modernize through Crown Prince MBS, and then you

5...have the old guard represented by Alwaleed who was one of the Deep State financial heads and loyal to the DS more than SA; SA knew Hussein was financing Iran to hold western world hostage, and SA was caught in middle of Deep State black mail; this is why @Potus was celebrated