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26/42 Are there any national datasets that accurately capture what is going on? The brilliant @jburnmurdoch has highlighted number of admissions into ICU. The message from his animated chart (click on link) couldn’t be clearer – this winter is v unusual: https://t.co/76ZvHU2pmV.


27/42 Some sceptics arguing covid-19 tests are inaccurate. PCR tests not 100% accurate but hospital inpatient testing accuracy much increased by frequency of testing (typically admission, days 3 & 6/7, then weekly). This means very low numbers of overall false positives.

28/42 Some sceptics argue that the published covid-19 positive inpatient numbers include both those admitted with covid-19 and those who acquired covid-19 in hospital. And that there are significant numbers of patients who have acquired covid-19 in hospital.

29/42 Covid-19 positive test data has always included anyone testing positive, irrespective of initial diagnosis. And the NHS has always acknowledged that hospital acquired (nosocomial) infection is a big issue. Hospitals are working incredibly hard to control it….

30/42 …The NHS regularly and completely transparently publishes nosocomial infection data, by hospital. But neither issue affects the degree of pressure that hospitals are under. Every inpatient, irrespective of initial diagnosis/infection source, occupies a hospital bed.
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector

A short đź§µ

1/

Public health is not my thing

But Brexit is

And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does

2/12

The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate

Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n

Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1

Each series got that stage of Brexit right

3/12

The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what

I own this error - I was wrong

I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right

The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too

5/12
#MedicalNicotine

348,601 "ever-#snus users had about 60% lower Parkinson's disease risk compared with never-snus users."
https://t.co/YHB9FKkUtQ

30,000 British doctors followed for 60 years: "current smokers at baseline had a 30% lower risk of

#MedicalNicotine

Nicotine is beneficial for people with #ADHD. Research on adults and adolescents with ADHD shows that nicotine patches improve focus and attention, and reduce hyperactivity &


#MedicalNicotine

Nicotine reduces symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD).
https://t.co/Tht2Y8CZiN


#MedicalNicotine

Nicotine is beneficial for people with schizophrenia. More than 70% of people with schizophrenia smoke.

#SaferNicotine alternatives could help them as therapy, and to not die from

#MedicalNicotine

Nicotine, "(either 2 mg nicotine gum or 7 mg transdermal nicotine patch) potentiates [enhances] the therapeutic properties of neuroleptics in treating Tourette's syndrome... A single patch may be effective for a variable number of