BC WORLD
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

1/10

The latest IMF report on China was released yesterday and provides a lot of good information and intelligent insight on the Chinese economy. The IMF’s measure of China’s adjusted fiscal deficit (including estimated off-budget

 2/10

spending) is projected to rise to 18.2% of GDP in 2020 from 12.6% in 2019. The authors correctly note the worrying surge in debt and warn that Beijing must continue to try to contain financial stability risks, but I notice that they are projecting average GDP...
3/10

growth of just over 6% between 2012 and 2025, including a downward revision of their 2021 forecast from 8.2% to 7.9% (which I still think is a little high).

As I’ve long argued, it will be impossible for China both to control the surge in debt and to achieve growth...
4/10

targets above the real underlying growth rate of the economy, which I suspect is 2-3% at best. I know the IMF is constrained in what it is able to say about the Chinese economy if it wants to remain part of the advisory process, but I do think that after 10 years...
5/10

of watching this game we should be a lot more explicit about the relationship between unreasonably high GDP growth targets and high credit growth. There really is no point in advising Beijing to get financial risks under control while at the same time approving...
6/10

GDP growth targets that cannot but result in out-of-control increase in debt. The former requires the latter: if China grows by an average of 6% over the next five years, total social financing will rise from roughly 280% of GDP today to at least 320-40% of GDP.
7/10

The IMF also recommends that China do more to rebalance domestic demand towards consumption, which Beijing has been saying it would do since at least 2007. To do so it proposes expanding unemployment benefits, increasing transfers to low income households, enhancing...
8/10

public healthcare and otherwise strengthening the social safety net. This all makes sense, of course, but it is only half the story. Transfers involve not just “transfers to” but also “transfers from”. If Beijing permits these transfers to be funded by local government...
9/10

borrowing, as they always have been, it cannot resolve the underlying problem. Higher consumption only comes at the expense, in that case, of more local-government debt, and the whole point of rebalancing is to get Chinese growth to depend less on debt. I understand...
10/10

that this is an intensely political problem and very hard to resolve, which is perhaps why the IMF is staying clear of it, but the key to rebalancing demand, just as the key to resolving debt, is how to allocate the costs. The benefits are obvious.

More from Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

China is aging so rapidly that it urgently needs to address the problem of a rapidly declining work force in a slowly declining population. To give an idea of relative population changes among the three most populous countries, today

2/9

are 4.3 Chinese for every American and 4.7 Chinese of working age (ages 15-64), while there is just over 1 Chinese for every Indian and 1.1 Chinese of working age.

By the end of the century, however, there are expected to be 2.5 Chinese for every American and...

3/9

just 2.4 Chinese of working age, while there will be 1.4 Indians for every Chinese and 1.5 Indians of working age. Over the rest of this century, in other words, while China’s population declines quite rapidly relative to that of the two other most populous countries, it...

4/9

also switches from having a much better dependency ratio than either to having a worse one than either, with far more of its dependents being the elderly rather than children. In effect its working age population will drop by half relative to those of the other two.

5/9

This is going to be a very tough problem to resolve, although to the extent China succeeds, it will be very useful as an example for other countries. I am not sure they are going about it the right way, however. Making seniors make better use of smart technology sounds...
CHINA
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/11

An article worth thinking about: “As changes to the world structure accelerate, China’s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,” says Beijing.

I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently

2/11

through "a period of turbulent change", in Beijing’s words, and great structural adjustments, but usually when that happens, what matters in the long run is not how stable a system seems but rather how successfully political, economic and social institutions adjust to...

3/11

the new conditions. In the past these adjustments have almost always been messy, chaotic, and disheartening to most, but ultimately they were necessary even if we were unable to judge them so at the time.

I would argue that the world today is undergoing both a reversal...

4/11

and rejection of the current model of globalization and an urgent need for most countries in the world, including China, to initiate a major rebalancing of the way income and wealth (and ultimately political power) is distributed, but there are few if any historical...

5/11

precedents in which this level of restructuring and rebalancing have been neat or orderly.

Beijing's response, which is to do whatever it takes to maintain stability, may look good in the short term, as this strategy always does, but if it prevents the necessary...
GOVERNMENT
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Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/16

It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most

2/16

were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...

3/16

I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...

4/16

worsening of the healthy parts of its economy by unleashing enough of the unhealthy, non-productive growth it has long tried to constrain – basically real estate and infrastructure investment – in order to achieve as much economic activity as it...

5/16

needed for domestic political ends.

And that’s exactly what happened. While GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, even with substantial tailwinds its retail sales measure – a proxy for consumption – was only up 4.6%, and it was down 3.9% overall in 2020.
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/10

This is a really tough problem to resolve, especially if the massive increase in inflows from the trade and financial accounts are sustained, as I expect they will be well into 2021.

Clearly the PBoC would like to see the RMB gradually...

2/10

strengthen. This would keep financial markets stable and promote rebalancing, but the RMB has already strengthened a lot, and this puts unwanted pressure on exporters and “international circulation”.

Although PBoC reserves have been flat, other state-controlled Chinese...

3/10

banks have bought large amounts of dollars, but this is expensive. If these banks have half a trillion dollars of exposure, for example, they are losing at least $15-17 billion annually on negative carry, plus another $20-30 billion just this year from the rise of the RMB.

4/10

Beijing seems also to be trying other measures to slow the rise. The regulators are relaxing capital controls on outflows. In mid October the PBoC cut to zero the reserve requirement ratio for banks doing FX forward trading. This requirement was created in 2018 to reduce...

5/10

downward pressure on the RMB. In late October it suspended the counter-cyclical factor in RMB fixing, which was introduced in 2017 also to reduce downward currency pressure. But in both cases while the RMB dropped a few pips on the news, it quickly resumed its upward climb.
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

While debt-to-GDP ratios already have a limited but very misunderstood use, it seems economists are finding bright new ways of misunderstanding them. Now we say that when nominal interest rates are lower than nominal growth rates, the

2/9

downward pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio makes rising government debt and larger government deficits more sustainable and more easily justified.

This is totally confused. When the nominal interest rate is lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, it only means that net...

3/9

borrowers are getting a disproportionate share of growth relative to net lenders. This in and of itself changes the comparability of the debt-to-GDP ratio, so the fact that the ratio may decline tells us nothing about its sustainability which, I'm glad to say, isn't...

4/9

a mistake Olivier Blanchard makes in this article.

At least three things matter. First, whether or not rising debt is sustainable depends almost wholly on underlying conditions in the real economy, and only trivially on the arithmetical relationship between...

5/9

the interest rate and the growth rate. Second, this approach simply assumes away financial distress costs, in which case debt capacity is infinite anyway and the interest rate becomes irrelevant. And third, it assumes that the nominal debt level matters independently...
GOVERNMENT

More from World

\u0938\u0940 \u092c\u0940 \u092a\u0902\u091c\u093e\u092c\u0940
सी बी पंजाबी...
@cbpunjabi
How PM Imran Khan was humiliated during OIC conference.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has condemned the construction of the Ayodhya Ram Temple in India at the Conference of Islamic Countries (OIC).

UAE,which chaired the confernce asked Imran,What is the problem for the Islamic world with India building a temple in their country?
What is the problem for the Muslims of the world with the AyodhyaRama Temple? We hv no interest in interfering in the intrnal affairs of India.

In addition, we have provided 13 acres of land in our country for temple construction and 13.5 acres of land for parking and other facilities for Hindus.

Nowhere in the world have Hindus, who live and study attempt or incite riots or carry out suicide attacks in the name of

religion. They are peaceful and live according to the laws of the land.

Temple construction in India is an internal matter of India.  That is not the issue to be discussed here now.  India will look after India.

When will Pakistan repay the money it

borrowed from OlC? All Islamic countries except Pakistan contributed to this fund. Pakistan only borrows but failed to pay up.

Then the President of the Maldives stood up and began to say "The separatist and coup attempts instigated by Pakistan have created many internal
WORLD
Abir Ballan \U0001f60a
Abir Ballan 😊
@abirballan
Slavery by philanthropy. China offers help to Africa to gain voting power and maintain its hegemony.
@MichaelPSenger @stacey_rudin @randyhillier @katewand

"African allies -- which have crucial voting rights at major international bodies -- have arguably become an even more vital bloc for China to keep on side with its so-called vaccine diplomacy."

Why Does Wang visit African countries every year?


"According to the China Africa Research Initiative, Chinese loans to Africa dropped from $29.4 billion in 2016 to $8.9 billion in 2018."
"[Wang] postponed the repayment of interest-free loans from China that matured at the end of 2020"

When loans are postponed, this comes at some price; usually, its' sell your soul to the devil.
WORLD
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Nodutdol | \ub178\ub463\ub3cc
Nodutdol | 노둣돌...
@nodutdol
Today is “Korean American Day”.

#OTD in 1903, the first large group of Korean immigrants arrived in US-conquered territory. [Thread]


102 Korean men, women, and children arrived in Honolulu aboard the SS Gaelic to work in Hawaii’s sugar plantations. By 1905, Koreans comprised 11% of Hawaii’s plantation workforce—around 7000 people.


This first wave of Korean immigrants arrived amid sharpening imperialist rivalry in the Pacific. Korea had slowly been losing its independence for decades, and by 1903 was just two years away from becoming a protectorate of Japan.

At the same time, the US was consolidating its position in the Pacific, annexing Hawaii, Guam, and the Philippines in 1898, and partitioning Samoa in 1899.

(Pictured: US troops in the Philippines)


US missionaries colluded with the Hawaiian Sugar Planters Association to secure a new, cheap labor force for Hawaii’s sugar fields. Many of the Koreans who arrived in Hawaii from 1903-1905 were Methodists.
WORLD
Shahin-ur Rahman
Shahin-ur Rahman
@ShahinRahmanUK
[Thread]What makes a hadith authentic? The basics of #HadithLiteracy

Five criteria must be met for a hadith to be classed as authentic.
1. Morally upright narrators
2. Precision in transmission
3. Connected chain
4. Free from inconsistencies with other reports
5. Solitary reports must be free from reasons for suspicion

The first three of these deal with internal defects. The remaining two deal with external (or ‘hidden’) defects. The objective of these criteria is to ensure there be no chance of forgeries and to mitigate against the likelihood of errors in reports.

1) All narrators must be morally upright and known for their honesty. This is to eliminate all chances of deliberate lies in the name of the Prophet ﷺ. A morally upright Muslim would never lie about Allah and His Messenger ﷺ.

2) Precision in transmission is likewise necessary to mitigate against unintended mistakes. An upright narrator with weak memory, for instance, might not consciously lie but is nonetheless prone to erring when conveying a report.
WORLD
Zarina Zabrisky
Zarina Zabrisky
@ZarinaZabrisky
#Navalny is facing TWO court hearings today; one is happening now. I'm listening to his speech. He's trying to explain: he was not hiding from the court; he was in a coma. The whole thing is so absurd that it is impossible to comment. In a nutshell: they just want him locked up.


It is clear that the verdict will not be overturned. He will go to serve 2.8 years or more in a penal colony. His allies are locked up under home arrests w/o the Internet. People are silenced. Honest and brave people have lost again.

Navalny's last word #1: "I give the last word so frequently. This trial will end now; there will be the second [today]. And there, too, I will say my last word. If someone decides to publish my last words, it will be a thick book..."

"Probably, this is a sign the power sends me, “Look, we can turn this judicial system any way we want. What are you doing? I'm not the only one who sees this and... people imagine that it can happen to them, too..."

Navalny speaks of his newly found faith and says that he experiences "satisfaction" and doesn't regret returning to Russia." He did the right thing and followed the commandment "blessed are those hungry for righteousness, for they will be satisfied"
WORLD

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Filippo Valsorda
Filippo Valsorda
@FiloSottile
“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.

Always. No, your company is not an exception.

A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.

Listen to Aditya


And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.

I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.

You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.

Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
LIFE
Loren Brichter
Loren Brichter
@lorenb
So it turns out that Google Chrome was making everything on my computer slow *even when it wasn’t running*, because it installs something called Keystone which is basically malware.

I made a website because this shouldn’t

Wired first reported on how bad Keystone was 11 years ago when they put it into Google Earth (they seem to put it in all their popular

The fact that Keystone hides itself in Activity Monitor is bizarre. (The only sign of it was excessive CPU usage of WindowServer which is a system process).

I don’t know if Google was doing something nefarious with Keystone, or a third party figured out how to (which Wired warned about). But either way, I’m not inclined to give Google-the-organization the benefit of the doubt (despite the many good people who work on Chrome)...

...since it's been a decade+ and this still hasn't been "fixed".

There is no reason for auto-update software to need to do what Chrome/Keystone was doing. It also has a long history of crashing Macs.
TECH
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WORLD OF SANATAN DHARMA
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan
UNTOLD STORY OF QUEEN BHAVASHANKARI OF BENGAL - A 🧵u must read

Know the role of Naga Sadhus

PART-1

One of the most underrated empires to ever grace India is the kingdom of Bhurshut from central Bengal.

1/


A medieval powerhouse this kingdom stood firm against the Pathan invasion from Orissa twice, and with each time devastating the enemy forces.

Along with this, we also have to note that this was the time when the empire was under the reign of a widowed queen named Bhavashankari.

She wasn’t even born in a royal family and yet she achieved what most of the kings couldn’t do

This begs the question, why does no one remember this great kingdom?

3/

Bhurshut empire thrived from 15th century till late 18th century as an independent kingdom while acting as tributary state with full autonomy.

4/

What’s even more puzzling is that no one knows about the great queen Bhavanshakari who thrashed the Pathans single handedly without the aid of their allies.

5/
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Ramsay Rippers \U0001f354
Ramsay Rippers 🍔...
@RamsayRippers
🧵EMA + VWAP STRATEGY

Every trader has a go-to strategy that works best for them. My trading is all about keeping it simple stupid and revolves around two indicators - Exponential moving averages and vwap.

Here's the strategy that I utilize on nearly 80% of my trades.

👇

What are Exponential Moving Averages?

EMA's are a type of moving average that places a greater weight on more recent data points.

8EMA = Exponential Moving Averages of the last 8 candle closing prices.

EMA's adjust with respect to chart time frame.

What is VWAP?

Volume Weighted Average Price - A key intraday indicator in my trading that offers the true average price based on price & volume.

Calculation: (Price x # of shares traded) / total shares traded

EMA's I use

- 8
- 21
- 50

While I do utilize the 50EMA, the 8 & 21 EMA are most important for this strategy. Some people use the 9 and 20 which are essentially the same thing. REMEMBER: EMA'S adjust with respect to time frames.

A+ Set Up Criteria - (What I look for)
STRATEGY
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
ANCIENT BHARAT WAS CALLED VISHWAGURU, AND IT REALLY DESERVED IT.

India had a well developed education system centuries before the westerners arrived and called us uncivilized. Education was always given a great importance in Indian civilisation since times immemorial.


Ancient India had the Gurukulas and Ashramas as the epicentres of the knowledge and enlightenment. Bigger Gurukulas served as the centres of higher education called universities. Besides these universities, temples also emerged as the major learning centres.

Studying the Holy Scriptures, character building, personality development, responsibilities towards self,family and society,discipline and preservation of the ancient culture and heritage were the key embodiments of education.

This kind of education system made ancient India, a centre of knowledge all over the world. Many foreign students came to India for education and India was called the 'Vishwaguru'.
Takshshila and Nalanda were the two prominent universities of ancient India.


But were these only Universities of ancient India?The answer is 'No'.Let's learn about these gems of our education system that flourished across ancient India & be proud.

NALANDA UNIVERSITY
This was the oldest university of ancient India.Situated in Nalanda distt. of Bihar...
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