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The latest IMF report on China was released yesterday and provides a lot of good information and intelligent insight on the Chinese economy. The IMF’s measure of China’s adjusted fiscal deficit (including estimated off-budget

1/16

It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most

2/16

were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...

3/16

I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...

4/16

worsening of the healthy parts of its economy by unleashing enough of the unhealthy, non-productive growth it has long tried to constrain – basically real estate and infrastructure investment – in order to achieve as much economic activity as it...

5/16

needed for domestic political ends.

And that’s exactly what happened. While GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, even with substantial tailwinds its retail sales measure – a proxy for consumption – was only up 4.6%, and it was down 3.9% overall in 2020.

1/9

Good article. But while growing international criticism and rising trade tensions may have had some impact, as the article suggests, I don’t think they really explain the great reversal in BRI lending of the past few years.

2/9

As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...

3/9

knowledge and no previous experience, an early rapid rise in development lending would be driven mainly by underestimating risk and an overestimation of their own business "success" in making loans, and would of course be further supported by geopolitical ambitions.

4/9

This combination would inevitably lead to bad lending decisions, followed just as inevitably by debt restructuring, loan losses, and a contraction in development lending. In the 1920s, for example, the US set off quite explicitly and aggressively to displace England in...

5/9

Latin America, and American businesses and banks assumed they “understood” Latin America much better than the English did, in spite of the vast English experience there, but their early displacement of British lending only resulted in the huge loan losses of the 1930s.

1/9

China is aging so rapidly that it urgently needs to address the problem of a rapidly declining work force in a slowly declining population. To give an idea of relative population changes among the three most populous countries, today

2/9

are 4.3 Chinese for every American and 4.7 Chinese of working age (ages 15-64), while there is just over 1 Chinese for every Indian and 1.1 Chinese of working age.

By the end of the century, however, there are expected to be 2.5 Chinese for every American and...

3/9

just 2.4 Chinese of working age, while there will be 1.4 Indians for every Chinese and 1.5 Indians of working age. Over the rest of this century, in other words, while China’s population declines quite rapidly relative to that of the two other most populous countries, it...

4/9

also switches from having a much better dependency ratio than either to having a worse one than either, with far more of its dependents being the elderly rather than children. In effect its working age population will drop by half relative to those of the other two.

5/9

This is going to be a very tough problem to resolve, although to the extent China succeeds, it will be very useful as an example for other countries. I am not sure they are going about it the right way, however. Making seniors make better use of smart technology sounds...

1/9

While debt-to-GDP ratios already have a limited but very misunderstood use, it seems economists are finding bright new ways of misunderstanding them. Now we say that when nominal interest rates are lower than nominal growth rates, the

2/9

downward pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio makes rising government debt and larger government deficits more sustainable and more easily justified.

This is totally confused. When the nominal interest rate is lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, it only means that net...

3/9

borrowers are getting a disproportionate share of growth relative to net lenders. This in and of itself changes the comparability of the debt-to-GDP ratio, so the fact that the ratio may decline tells us nothing about its sustainability which, I'm glad to say, isn't...

4/9

a mistake Olivier Blanchard makes in this article.

At least three things matter. First, whether or not rising debt is sustainable depends almost wholly on underlying conditions in the real economy, and only trivially on the arithmetical relationship between...

5/9

the interest rate and the growth rate. Second, this approach simply assumes away financial distress costs, in which case debt capacity is infinite anyway and the interest rate becomes irrelevant. And third, it assumes that the nominal debt level matters independently...

1/11

An article worth thinking about: “As changes to the world structure accelerate, China’s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,” says Beijing.

I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently

2/11

through "a period of turbulent change", in Beijing’s words, and great structural adjustments, but usually when that happens, what matters in the long run is not how stable a system seems but rather how successfully political, economic and social institutions adjust to...

3/11

the new conditions. In the past these adjustments have almost always been messy, chaotic, and disheartening to most, but ultimately they were necessary even if we were unable to judge them so at the time.

I would argue that the world today is undergoing both a reversal...

4/11

and rejection of the current model of globalization and an urgent need for most countries in the world, including China, to initiate a major rebalancing of the way income and wealth (and ultimately political power) is distributed, but there are few if any historical...

5/11

precedents in which this level of restructuring and rebalancing have been neat or orderly.

Beijing's response, which is to do whatever it takes to maintain stability, may look good in the short term, as this strategy always does, but if it prevents the necessary...

KILLMONGER'S DIARY

Fuck Africa. I'm American. Any African mad at dem words, kick rocks. Don't like it, jump ship. Back 2 Africa. Need receipts. How much yall made off us? U think we didn't know? Mafucka, we the vibranium that made Africa pop. We werent stole. We were sold.

Yall sold us. Then yall hv the audacity 2 come here, pass as American niggas, lecture us about racism & white supremacy, police our emotion, critique our anger & then U have the bravado 2 lecture us about fighting when yall let Europeans come & take yall shit? Fuck out of here.

Immigrants by nature unpatriotic. When times got tough, you left your country. You abdicated the responsibility to make your country better. You didn't fight. You ran. We didn't leave. We stayed. We fighters. Yall runners. Ain't know runner can tell a fighter about a damn thing.

"Erik U dont understand. We wouldve been killed." So the fuck what. We died fo our shit, but yall weren't willing 2 die for yours & now U come here trying 2 cut the line & take our place & Bitch, dont be calling me by my 1st name. We aint cool like that. Thats Mr. Killmonger 2 U.

& we ain' family. I dont play crayola politics so I dont care we got da same skin color. I ain't got no Melanin infatuation like the rest of deese niggas. I's knows what yall done did to us. I gives as much afuck about Africans as George Jefferson gave about Archie Bunker.

Chile is the poster child for extreme economic inequality in a developed country. I spent time there last year for my book (which has a chapter on Chile) and what I found hardest to understand is why there wasn't more political unrest. Now there

A few choice facts about Chile and inequality:

In Chile, the social security system is basically designed to redistribute wealth from the masses to the rich, because workers are required to put their savings into private investment funds that charge ridiculous fees.

The commitment to private industry runs deep. If the available water is sufficient either for drinking or growing avocados... well, you get the idea.

The result in Chile is two worlds, side by side.

And what is most remarkable is that, for the longest time, even the ostensibly left-wing parties were on board. Chile's socialists basically don't like socialism.

As witch-hunt #3 gets underway by @BeatriceJanzon
@sverigesradio @sr_ekot against me, Keith Begg, a citizen of Ireland and Sweden and no doubt some members of the FB Group I would like to post some questions to the above:
🆘Is it ethical, that the tactics and antics of a state

media station, paid for with taxpayers money, can infiltrate a Private FB group and try to discredit them? This is done in the most authoritarian of states.
🆘Is it ethical that the Honorable David Nabarro from @WHO had to issue a press release due to being deliberately

misquoting in Swedish media?
🆘Are these headlines reflective of what you would see in free media in a democracy, when the rest of the world was posting quite opposite headlines about Sweden?
🆘Does the deliberate distortion of information on Swedish TV constitute any

breaches of trust? Why was it done? After all when the government changed its C19 strategy on the Gov website, they deemed it a mistake?
🆘Not to mind the Italian embassy having to issue three statements over false claims by Tegnell

which were picked up by the media. Do I as a private citizen think that @RSF_en made a big mistake by recognizing Sweden as #4 in terms of Freedom of the Press? ABSOLUTELY. We want to know what they based their decisions on. Because it is clear to many

In July 2020, the whole month, The Lincoln Project was everywhere. Profiles at NBC, CNN, WaPo, NYT, NBC, ABC, the New Yorker. NONE of them did any serious vetting of the group or their claims

only reporter Ebony Bowden, at the NYPost really looked at TLP with any objectivity