BC GOVERNMENT
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/11

An article worth thinking about: “As changes to the world structure accelerate, China’s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,” says Beijing.

I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently

 2/11

through "a period of turbulent change", in Beijing’s words, and great structural adjustments, but usually when that happens, what matters in the long run is not how stable a system seems but rather how successfully political, economic and social institutions adjust to...
3/11

the new conditions. In the past these adjustments have almost always been messy, chaotic, and disheartening to most, but ultimately they were necessary even if we were unable to judge them so at the time.

I would argue that the world today is undergoing both a reversal...
4/11

and rejection of the current model of globalization and an urgent need for most countries in the world, including China, to initiate a major rebalancing of the way income and wealth (and ultimately political power) is distributed, but there are few if any historical...
5/11

precedents in which this level of restructuring and rebalancing have been neat or orderly.

Beijing's response, which is to do whatever it takes to maintain stability, may look good in the short term, as this strategy always does, but if it prevents the necessary...
6/11

rebalancing (as it has for well over a decade), in the future the Chinese may judge their response much less favorably. We went through similarly turbulent periods in the 1920s and 1930s, and then again in the 1960s and 1970s, and in both cases it seemed that the older...
7/11

democracies of the West were failing the test, unlike the stability-obsessed autocracies. Mussolini in the 1920s and early 1930s, remember, was considered even by many prominent American and English politicians to be one of the world’s few great leaders, mainly because...
8/11

he managed to "stabilize" Italy, even as the older American and European democracies were in turmoil. Forty years later the USSR seemed an oasis of purpose and stability when once again Western Europe and the US seemed on the edge of collapse.
9/11

In both cases we were wrong. My point isn’t that Beijing's response is necessarily the wrong one, and ours necessarily the right one. It is only that when we are in the midst of a period of turbulent change, it isn’t always obvious who is adjusting to new conditions and...
10/11

who isn’t, and it certainly isn’t necessarily the case that countries undergoing the least messy institutional changes are the ones adapting best. History suggests almost the opposite – that countries adjust mainly in the midst of turmoil – but either way we will only...
11/11

know many years from now. It will depend mainly on how the different systems react to the real problems that nearly every country faces today, whether, for example, the US, China or Europe respond forcefully to the current turmoil by aggressively rebalancing income.

More from Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/10

The latest IMF report on China was released yesterday and provides a lot of good information and intelligent insight on the Chinese economy. The IMF’s measure of China’s adjusted fiscal deficit (including estimated off-budget

2/10

spending) is projected to rise to 18.2% of GDP in 2020 from 12.6% in 2019. The authors correctly note the worrying surge in debt and warn that Beijing must continue to try to contain financial stability risks, but I notice that they are projecting average GDP...

3/10

growth of just over 6% between 2012 and 2025, including a downward revision of their 2021 forecast from 8.2% to 7.9% (which I still think is a little high).

As I’ve long argued, it will be impossible for China both to control the surge in debt and to achieve growth...

4/10

targets above the real underlying growth rate of the economy, which I suspect is 2-3% at best. I know the IMF is constrained in what it is able to say about the Chinese economy if it wants to remain part of the advisory process, but I do think that after 10 years...

5/10

of watching this game we should be a lot more explicit about the relationship between unreasonably high GDP growth targets and high credit growth. There really is no point in advising Beijing to get financial risks under control while at the same time approving...
WORLD
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

China is aging so rapidly that it urgently needs to address the problem of a rapidly declining work force in a slowly declining population. To give an idea of relative population changes among the three most populous countries, today

2/9

are 4.3 Chinese for every American and 4.7 Chinese of working age (ages 15-64), while there is just over 1 Chinese for every Indian and 1.1 Chinese of working age.

By the end of the century, however, there are expected to be 2.5 Chinese for every American and...

3/9

just 2.4 Chinese of working age, while there will be 1.4 Indians for every Chinese and 1.5 Indians of working age. Over the rest of this century, in other words, while China’s population declines quite rapidly relative to that of the two other most populous countries, it...

4/9

also switches from having a much better dependency ratio than either to having a worse one than either, with far more of its dependents being the elderly rather than children. In effect its working age population will drop by half relative to those of the other two.

5/9

This is going to be a very tough problem to resolve, although to the extent China succeeds, it will be very useful as an example for other countries. I am not sure they are going about it the right way, however. Making seniors make better use of smart technology sounds...
CHINA
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Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/16

It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most

2/16

were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...

3/16

I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...

4/16

worsening of the healthy parts of its economy by unleashing enough of the unhealthy, non-productive growth it has long tried to constrain – basically real estate and infrastructure investment – in order to achieve as much economic activity as it...

5/16

needed for domestic political ends.

And that’s exactly what happened. While GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, even with substantial tailwinds its retail sales measure – a proxy for consumption – was only up 4.6%, and it was down 3.9% overall in 2020.
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/10

This is a really tough problem to resolve, especially if the massive increase in inflows from the trade and financial accounts are sustained, as I expect they will be well into 2021.

Clearly the PBoC would like to see the RMB gradually...

2/10

strengthen. This would keep financial markets stable and promote rebalancing, but the RMB has already strengthened a lot, and this puts unwanted pressure on exporters and “international circulation”.

Although PBoC reserves have been flat, other state-controlled Chinese...

3/10

banks have bought large amounts of dollars, but this is expensive. If these banks have half a trillion dollars of exposure, for example, they are losing at least $15-17 billion annually on negative carry, plus another $20-30 billion just this year from the rise of the RMB.

4/10

Beijing seems also to be trying other measures to slow the rise. The regulators are relaxing capital controls on outflows. In mid October the PBoC cut to zero the reserve requirement ratio for banks doing FX forward trading. This requirement was created in 2018 to reduce...

5/10

downward pressure on the RMB. In late October it suspended the counter-cyclical factor in RMB fixing, which was introduced in 2017 also to reduce downward currency pressure. But in both cases while the RMB dropped a few pips on the news, it quickly resumed its upward climb.
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

While debt-to-GDP ratios already have a limited but very misunderstood use, it seems economists are finding bright new ways of misunderstanding them. Now we say that when nominal interest rates are lower than nominal growth rates, the

2/9

downward pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio makes rising government debt and larger government deficits more sustainable and more easily justified.

This is totally confused. When the nominal interest rate is lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, it only means that net...

3/9

borrowers are getting a disproportionate share of growth relative to net lenders. This in and of itself changes the comparability of the debt-to-GDP ratio, so the fact that the ratio may decline tells us nothing about its sustainability which, I'm glad to say, isn't...

4/9

a mistake Olivier Blanchard makes in this article.

At least three things matter. First, whether or not rising debt is sustainable depends almost wholly on underlying conditions in the real economy, and only trivially on the arithmetical relationship between...

5/9

the interest rate and the growth rate. Second, this approach simply assumes away financial distress costs, in which case debt capacity is infinite anyway and the interest rate becomes irrelevant. And third, it assumes that the nominal debt level matters independently...
GOVERNMENT

More from Government

Liv Coleman
Liv Coleman
@LivColemanFL
The Manatee-Sarasota area has many connections to the horrific scene of insurrection in Washington DC yesterday. Want to see? Buckle up for this thread: /1

The Manatee GOP expressed support for Josh Hawley’s objections to certification of the electoral college vote. /2


Josh Hawley’s home-state newspaper says Hawley has blood on his hands for a “Capitol coup attempt.” This is who the Manatee GOP cheered on.

Florida GOP Vice Chair & Sarasota County Commissioner Christian Ziegler was at the protest, as described in this @HeraldTribune article.

The protest was led by the same people connected to Ziegler who were filming outside the Vern Buchanan town hall at the Van Wezel in Sarasota in 2017, namely Dustin Stockton. Stockton was also part of Steve Bannon's border wall group. /5

https://t.co/NbOxVqbtO4
GOVERNMENT
Cleveland Documenters
Cleveland Documenters
@cledocumenters
Last week, @CleCityCouncil started reviewing Mayor Frank Jackson’s proposed city budget for 2021. There was robust discussion, and Documenters were there to cover it. Here’s a thread of what we learned last week about the #CLEBudget

First, it helps to know where we are in the budget process. From today through Feb. 24, the council will meet about the General Fund budget. The council will then agree on a budget with their changes (if any); 15 days after doing so, they can vote to make the budget official.


In other words, there’s still time to use your voice! The #refundcleveland tool can help. Create the #CLEBudget you want and send it to your council member. Click “Change the Budget” on the homepage and follow the on-screen instructions from there.

Want to know the budget basics? Our #CLEBudget primer details the timeline, different types of budgets and the funds involved, and defines budget-related terms. It can be a helpful guide during City Council’s discussions.

And don’t forget: all these meetings are livestreamed on City Council’s YouTube channel. They’re slated to start at 9 a.m. every business day from today through the 24th. You can also follow along with #CLEDocumenters live-tweet threads and
GOVERNMENT
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Kavita Krishnan
Kavita Krishnan
@kavita_krishnan
My account in @thewire_in of meeting Muskan and Rashid, victims of a series of violent acts by the Bajrang Dal, and by a range of UP government authorities including the police, shelter home and hospital.

Advised by @SartajAlamIndia Muskan was taken to Bijnor, where she got an ultrasound done at a private clinic. The report shows that there are “retained products of conception” (foetal matter left over after a miscarriage or abortion) in her uterus.

The hospital denies causing Muskan to miscarry – but their denial rings false. They declared no miscarriage had occurred – which is now proven to be a lie. Most shockingly, in actions that befit a Mengele, they did not prescribe any antibiotics to Muskan after the miscarriage.

See how calm, confident Muskan is in the face of Bajrang Dal thugs: asked on camera if her father or “guardian” has given her permission to marry Rashid, she replies, “I am an adult, I am 22, I have married him of my own choice five months ago.”

Muskan told me: “I am an adult, know my own mind, was living on my own when I met Rashid. I knew he was Muslim. We loved each other. I converted to Islam of my own accord, & we married. My mother does not know him, she has just parroted whatever the Bajrang Dal men asked her to.”
GOVERNMENT
Austin Energy
Austin Energy
@austinenergy
Press conference with city/county officials + Austin Energy GM Jackie Sargent.
WATCH:

Austin Energy GM Jackie Sargent: For many of our customers here and across the state, they have been dealing with this. I'm so sorry our customers are experiencing these horrible conditions. I want you to know we're doing everything we can to restore power.

We are meeting the customers' needs as best as we can. We're continuing to respond to ERCOT's need for the electric grid - they're still operating at low reserve margins. If you have power, still help conserve.

We are now dealing with an ice storm event. It's impeding operations of some of our equipment. This ice storm is impacting our customers, some who had power and now don't.

I do have a bit of good news. Even though ERCOT’s reserves are low, they have given Austin Energy permission to restore some customers. We’ve restored 16 circuits across our service We are prioritizing customers who have been without power the longest.
GOVERNMENT
Resist the Hologram - Stu Cvrk
Resist the Hologram - ...
@STUinSD
Thread – Excerpt from a 30 Jan Ross Rant

1. These following is an excerpt from a recent “Ross Rant.” Joel Ross publishes these periodic reports that provide commentary on the changing scene with an eye toward wise future investments.
GOVERNMENT

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Pat Walls
Pat Walls
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And here they are...

THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE

Remember, this money is just fun. If you launched a product (or even attempted a launch) - you did something worth MUCH more than $1,000.

#24hrstartup

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Lattes For Change - Skip a latte and save a life.

https://t.co/M75RAirZzs

@frantzfries built a platform where you can see how skipping your morning latte could do for the world.

A great product for a great cause.

Congrats Chris on winning $250!


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Instaland - Create amazing landing pages for your followers.

https://t.co/5KkveJTAsy

A team project! @bpmct and @BaileyPumfleet built a tool for social media influencers to create simple "swipe up" landing pages for followers.

Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!


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SayHenlo - Chat without distractions

https://t.co/og0B7gmkW6

Built by @DaltonEdwards, it's a platform for combatting conversation overload. This product was also coded exclusively from an iPad 😲

Dalton is a beast. I'm so excited he placed in the top 10.


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CoderStory - Learn to code from developers across the globe!

https://t.co/86Ay6nF4AY

Built by @jesswallaceuk, the project is focused on highlighting the experience of developers and people learning to code.

I wish this existed when I learned to code! Congrats on $250!!
MAKERS
Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
IMPORTANCE OF SATYA NARAYAN KATHA AND ITS ORIGIN.

We all have heard and read the Satyanarayan katha. But none of us dont know the original stories that Shatanand or Sadhu or Kalavati must have heard. Also, as a habit we hear or read this katha


but dont know the proper way it should be conducted.

We find its mention in Skanda puraan(Reva khand) and Bhavishya Puraan(Pratisarg parva).
Both Bhagwatam and Gita call Bhagwan Narayan as Satv or Truth. So Satyanarayan denotes this name as the one which is Truth incarnate.

The story began in Naimisharanya when Vyasji asked Sutji about a way to eliminate all the sorrows and fulfill all the desires and about who is the devta who can grant these at the same time.

So Suutji first prayed to Bhagwan Satyanarayan who is no one else but Vishnu ji.

Then he remembered all his avatars.After that he narrated the story of Narad. Once while visiting Mrityulok, Naradji was pained to see the sufferings of People around. He was deeply moved by these sufferings and wanted to know the means by which we could rid ourselves from these.

So he went to Vishnu ji and after paying his respects stood in front of him. Naradji narrated the purpose of his visit.

So Bhagwan Vishnu said to him that in Satyug and Tretayug, Bhagwan eliminates sorrow in Vishnuswarup. In Dwapar he assumes different forms to help people.
RELIGION
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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
#Guruvayur_Krishna_Bhakthi  🕉
#Guruvayur
#Storytime
Beautiful Story of Guruvayurappan

Poonathanam Namboothiri was a great devotee of Guruvayurappan. One day Poonthanam was going to Guruvayur Kshetram. It was night time and eventhough Namboothiri was tired he continued to walk


Suddenly some thieves came and blocked his way. Poonthanam cried for Shri Krishna to help. Thieves snatched all valuables from him, but Namboothiri holding his Bhaghavatam book called Shri Krishna to help. That time a man came in a horse back and fought with thieves and protected


Namboothiri. Poonthanam thanked Krishna for helping him from danger and said to the man that "Shri Krishna has send you here and I don't know how to thank you".  The man smiled and told that he is Mangattachan, minister of  samoodhiris. Poonthanam once again thanked him and


gave his ring to Mangattachan as a token of thanks and continued his journey. He reached Guruvayur early morning for Nirmalya Darshan. Temple poojari came near him and told that Guruvayurappan came in his dreams and asked to hand over the ring to poonthanam.


When he opened Kshetra Nada poonthanam was surprised to see his ring on Guruvayurappan, which he gifted to Mangattachan. He understood that it was Guruvayurappan who came as Mangattachan to protect him. This is how Bhagwan treat his devotees.

Hare Krishna
🙏🕉🙏
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Nicolas Cole
Nicolas Cole
@Nicolascole77
🚢 Atomic Essays Republishing Framework 🚢

1. Write Atomic Essay
2. Post image on Twitter
3. (Bonus) Copy/paste text as thread
4. Find relevant Question on Quora. Copy/paste Atomic Essay + image.
5. Copy/paste again on Medium.
6. Again on LinkedIn
7. Win

Guide below ✍️🚢👇

Step 1: Write Atomic Essay

I really enjoy writing right inside the Figma template. It helps give me a good sense of exactly how much "real estate" I have/have left before my time us up and I'm out of space.

Once finished, I export the image and send to my phone on Slack.


Step 2: Post image on Twitter

Before I publish my Atomic Essay on Twitter, I use the Edit/Photo Markup function on the iPhone to highlight standout sentences.

These are usually power-phrases: things the reader skims and thinks, "That's interesting," prompting them to read more.


Step 3: For the Ship 30 for 30 challenge, I only turn Atomic Essays into threads if...

1. The piece is SUPER actionable and lends itself well to the thread format (lots of bullets, quick points, lists, etc.)

or...

2. I'm referencing research and want to link to the pieces.

Step 4: Find relevant Question on Quora. Copy/paste Atomic Essay + image.

Search on Quora around the topic you wrote about. Find a related Question. Copy/paste the whole Atomic Essay as your "answer" (& fix formatting). Then include image so it appears in the thumbnail.
WRITING
Laurie Voss
Laurie Voss
@seldo
The 2018 State of JavaScript survey is out. They got 20,000 responses and have some delicious, delicious data. I'mma thread in some highlights:

First up: JavaScript flavors. There's TypeScript at 47% adoption, a tad higher than npm's own survey results (which said 46%). npm's survey is coming up again soon and will ask about TypeScript in a lot more detail.


I really, *really* like SoJ's "would not use again" question, which lets people who've abandoned a tech self-identify. This is noticeable in the graph above with Flow users -- 41% of people who've used Flow say they wouldn't use it again.

Now JavaScript frameworks. It's been a full year since npm's survey, so these numbers differ from ours in the directions I expected:
React 65% (vs. 60%)
Vue 29% (vs. 24%)
Ember 5% (vs 4%, I was expecting a bigger rise)

But there's a shocker in here: Angular.


npm's survey had Angular at 40% last year and SoJ has it at either:
- 58% (if you include those who don't want to use it again)
- 24% (if you count only those who like it)
Since npm's question didn't ask if they intend to *continue* using it I think that might explain this.
TECH