BC CHINA
Saved by @Alex1Powell

1/9

China is aging so rapidly that it urgently needs to address the problem of a rapidly declining work force in a slowly declining population. To give an idea of relative population changes among the three most populous countries, today

 2/9

are 4.3 Chinese for every American and 4.7 Chinese of working age (ages 15-64), while there is just over 1 Chinese for every Indian and 1.1 Chinese of working age.

By the end of the century, however, there are expected to be 2.5 Chinese for every American and...
3/9

just 2.4 Chinese of working age, while there will be 1.4 Indians for every Chinese and 1.5 Indians of working age. Over the rest of this century, in other words, while China’s population declines quite rapidly relative to that of the two other most populous countries, it...
4/9

also switches from having a much better dependency ratio than either to having a worse one than either, with far more of its dependents being the elderly rather than children. In effect its working age population will drop by half relative to those of the other two.
5/9

This is going to be a very tough problem to resolve, although to the extent China succeeds, it will be very useful as an example for other countries. I am not sure they are going about it the right way, however. Making seniors make better use of smart technology sounds...
6/9

very exciting and high tech, and might even help a little, as will lifting the retirement age, but the former is likely to have little effect on the overall economy or on the underlying imbalances, and the latter mostly catches China up to other urban economies.
7/9

What is more, the idea that getting seniors jobs will boost consumption and help rebalance the economy is, of course, not true. While it might raise per capita GDP (slightly), it only increases consumption indirectly, by increasing production more. Without seriously...
8/9

reforming the way income is distributed, this would only make the imbalances worse. The best way to rebalance the economy in this case would be to increase pensions and social benefits for the elderly. It would also be politically popular, and while at first it might be...
9/9

opposed by local governments, who would be forced to foot the bill, it would eventually allow them to reduce spending on non-productive investment as it is replaced by an increase in productive business investment encouraged by higher direct and indirect consumption.

More from Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/11

An article worth thinking about: “As changes to the world structure accelerate, China’s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,” says Beijing.

I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently

2/11

through "a period of turbulent change", in Beijing’s words, and great structural adjustments, but usually when that happens, what matters in the long run is not how stable a system seems but rather how successfully political, economic and social institutions adjust to...

3/11

the new conditions. In the past these adjustments have almost always been messy, chaotic, and disheartening to most, but ultimately they were necessary even if we were unable to judge them so at the time.

I would argue that the world today is undergoing both a reversal...

4/11

and rejection of the current model of globalization and an urgent need for most countries in the world, including China, to initiate a major rebalancing of the way income and wealth (and ultimately political power) is distributed, but there are few if any historical...

5/11

precedents in which this level of restructuring and rebalancing have been neat or orderly.

Beijing's response, which is to do whatever it takes to maintain stability, may look good in the short term, as this strategy always does, but if it prevents the necessary...
GOVERNMENT
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

While debt-to-GDP ratios already have a limited but very misunderstood use, it seems economists are finding bright new ways of misunderstanding them. Now we say that when nominal interest rates are lower than nominal growth rates, the

2/9

downward pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio makes rising government debt and larger government deficits more sustainable and more easily justified.

This is totally confused. When the nominal interest rate is lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, it only means that net...

3/9

borrowers are getting a disproportionate share of growth relative to net lenders. This in and of itself changes the comparability of the debt-to-GDP ratio, so the fact that the ratio may decline tells us nothing about its sustainability which, I'm glad to say, isn't...

4/9

a mistake Olivier Blanchard makes in this article.

At least three things matter. First, whether or not rising debt is sustainable depends almost wholly on underlying conditions in the real economy, and only trivially on the arithmetical relationship between...

5/9

the interest rate and the growth rate. Second, this approach simply assumes away financial distress costs, in which case debt capacity is infinite anyway and the interest rate becomes irrelevant. And third, it assumes that the nominal debt level matters independently...
GOVERNMENT
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Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/10

This is a really tough problem to resolve, especially if the massive increase in inflows from the trade and financial accounts are sustained, as I expect they will be well into 2021.

Clearly the PBoC would like to see the RMB gradually...

2/10

strengthen. This would keep financial markets stable and promote rebalancing, but the RMB has already strengthened a lot, and this puts unwanted pressure on exporters and “international circulation”.

Although PBoC reserves have been flat, other state-controlled Chinese...

3/10

banks have bought large amounts of dollars, but this is expensive. If these banks have half a trillion dollars of exposure, for example, they are losing at least $15-17 billion annually on negative carry, plus another $20-30 billion just this year from the rise of the RMB.

4/10

Beijing seems also to be trying other measures to slow the rise. The regulators are relaxing capital controls on outflows. In mid October the PBoC cut to zero the reserve requirement ratio for banks doing FX forward trading. This requirement was created in 2018 to reduce...

5/10

downward pressure on the RMB. In late October it suspended the counter-cyclical factor in RMB fixing, which was introduced in 2017 also to reduce downward currency pressure. But in both cases while the RMB dropped a few pips on the news, it quickly resumed its upward climb.
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

Good article. But while growing international criticism and rising trade tensions may have had some impact, as the article suggests, I don’t think they really explain the great reversal in BRI lending of the past few years.

2/9

As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...

3/9

knowledge and no previous experience, an early rapid rise in development lending would be driven mainly by underestimating risk and an overestimation of their own business "success" in making loans, and would of course be further supported by geopolitical ambitions.

4/9

This combination would inevitably lead to bad lending decisions, followed just as inevitably by debt restructuring, loan losses, and a contraction in development lending. In the 1920s, for example, the US set off quite explicitly and aggressively to displace England in...

5/9

Latin America, and American businesses and banks assumed they “understood” Latin America much better than the English did, in spite of the vast English experience there, but their early displacement of British lending only resulted in the huge loan losses of the 1930s.
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/16

It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most

2/16

were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...

3/16

I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...

4/16

worsening of the healthy parts of its economy by unleashing enough of the unhealthy, non-productive growth it has long tried to constrain – basically real estate and infrastructure investment – in order to achieve as much economic activity as it...

5/16

needed for domestic political ends.

And that’s exactly what happened. While GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, even with substantial tailwinds its retail sales measure – a proxy for consumption – was only up 4.6%, and it was down 3.9% overall in 2020.
ECONOMY

More from China

Carl Zha
Carl Zha
@CarlZha
As someone who actually grew up in China in 1980s, I can actually talked abt how commemoration of Nanjing Massacre changed inside China. I will make a thread


I was born in Oct 1976. 1 month after Mao died. I went to elementary school in China in 1982. my 1st to 4th grade was during honeymoon period btw Japan and China. We learn abt horrors of Hiroshima bombing and how Japan was a victim of US Imperialism


1985 was a pivotal year in Sino-Japanese relations. On the 40the year of Japanese surrender, Japanese PM Yasuhiro Nakasone visited Yasukuni shrine for the 1st time after WW2 Japanese war criminals had been enshrined there in 1978.


Another development was discovery in 1980s of 1 the most notorious Japanese war crime: Unit 731, biological and chemical weapon research unit of Imperial Japanese Army that performed lethal live human experiments on Chinese and Allied prisoners in China


In 1986, the 1st mainland China film on KMT fighting Japan, 血战台儿庄abt Battle of Tai'erzhuang, 1st major Chinese victory over Japan immediately aft Nanjiang Massacre came out. I learn abt Nanjing Massacre that year, I was 10.
CHINA
The Stellar Cygnus
The Stellar Cygnus
@Cygnus_022
@dhruv_rajnish @TheKidneyDocto1 See i m trying to keep here my point of view on Democracy in China.. okay.. China isn't a dictatorship if u exclude this Xi Jinping and Mao era.. They conduct fair elections where every candidate is supported by CCP.. They represent people.. (1/2)

@TheKidneyDocto1 China says, they have their own way of Democracy and they don't copy the west.. See "Stability" is most important in a country, especially in economic factors.. what happens in India is, if tomorrow a new govt of a different party comes, (2/3)

@TheKidneyDocto1 it will scrap the economic policies formed by the previous govts and again start a new different policy..It don't benefit anyone.See how Vietnam made most of the profit of Chinese boycott..Vietnam is not a democracy..See now everything comes now to the definition of Democracy 3/4

@TheKidneyDocto1 China and Chinese proudly say that they have Democracy.. Try asking one of them..
Now ethnic minorities..Okay..You do know that bhutan is the happiest country of the world..Many say that one of its reason is, they sent back the Nepalese ethinic groups back to Nepal and India..4/5

@TheKidneyDocto1 Now they live as a single ethinic community..China also doing the same.. They want Han Chinese to be one ethnic group and an atheist nation.. You may not agree with me, but i feel they are doing good.. See if all citezens will be Atheists and one single race, 5/6
CHINA
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Branko Milanovic
Branko Milanovic
@BrankoMilan
Here is (for whoever may be interested) the list of books on China that I have read in the past 5-6 years;
in no particular order, with my assessments: 5 stars is the best, 2 the worst.
Books I reviewed on my blog are noted with ++.

John Palmer, The death of Mao, Faber & Faber, 2012 **
Jonathan Fenby, Will China dominate the 21st century, Polity, 2014 ***
Quan Yanchi, Mao: Man, not God ***
Jacques Gernet, Daily life in China on the Eve of Mongol Invasion 1250-76, Stanford UP, 1962. ****

++Giovanni Arrighi, Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages of the 21st Century, Verso, 2007. *****
Minxin Pei, China’s crony capitalism, Harvard UP, 2016. ****
Minxin Pei, China’s Trapped Transition, Harvard UP, 2006. ***

++Martin Jacques, When China rules the world, Penguin, 2012. *****
Cheng Li, Chinese politics in the Xi Jinping era, Brookings, 2016. ***
++Julian Gewirtz, Unlikely Partners Chinese Reformers, Western Economists, and the Making of Global China, Harvard 2017. ****

Zhao Ziyang, Prisoner of the state, Simon and Schuster, 2009. ****
++Wang fan-hsi, Memoirs of a Chinese Revolutionary, Columbia UP, 1991. *****
++Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence, Princeton UP, 2000. *****
ALL , CHINA
\u937e\u7fd4\u5b87 Xiangyu
鍾翔宇 Xiangyu...
@notXiangyu
Thread:

1. Who runs Taiwan's media? For the longest time, I've said that Taiwanese media is just US MSM translated into Chinese, regardless of whether it is pan-blue (KMT-leaning) or pan-green (DPP-leaning). Below is a breakdown of some shareholder information.

2. Significant shareholders of Eastern Media International Corp (東森國際), which runs ETTV, a pan-blue station, include Dimensional Fund Advisors, Mackenzie Financial, and Northern Trust Investments. They would never lie about US imperialism, right?

3. One of the biggest shareholders of pan-green Sanlih E-Television (三立電視) is Daniel Tsai (蔡明忠), who runs Fubon Financial Holdings (富邦金控). You might know Fubon as the bank that bought up Taipei city government-controlled Taipeibank.

4. Fubon's shareholders include Vanguard Group, BlackRock, and Dimensional Fund Advisors. Look these companies up. They would certainly never want TV stations they control to lie about what bourgeois governments do, right?

5. The biggest shareholder of Formosa Television (民視), which was founded by the DPP, is managing dir. Chen Ching-fu (陳清福), who is incidentally the CEO of Ve Wong Corporation (味王), a food company, whose sharehldrs include Dimensional Fund Advisors & SSgA Funds Management
CHINA
Warren C.\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 45th POTUS = G.O.A.T. \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 \u271d\ufe0f
Warren C.🇺🇸 45th POTUS...
@808TeslaY
🇨🇳 🇨🇳 Situation Update, Dec. 6th –China owns DOMINION, and controls all the officials who run the machines at every level of government.

✅ Dominion is owned by communist China,which also runs the tech giants, the left-wing media and most of the Democrats in Congress
[M. Adams]


1. “Dominion’s Parent Company Arranges $400 Million Placement 1 Month Before Election: SEC Filing” – The Epoch Times:

2. A filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shows that UBS Securities LLC arranged a private placement of $400 million with Staple Street Capital III, L.P. on October 8, 2020.

Staple Street Capital, a private equity firm located in New York, purchased

3. Dominion Voting systems on July 17, 2018, for an undisclosed amount.

The securities firm that arranged the transaction, UBS Securities LLC, is a division of UBS Americas Inc, which ultimately falls under UBS Group AG, a company listed on the SIX Swiss stock exchange.

4. Three of four board members of UBS Securities LLC are Chinese according to Bloomberg, at least one of whom appears to reside in Hong Kong.

One of them is Ye Xiang, a Chinese national who also served as a board member of the Beijing-based UBS subsidiary.
CHINA

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2/ the PCR test as the gold standard underlying global "lockdowns" was passed after maximum ONE day of peer review, as opposed to the average at that same journal of 172 days in 2019. Also that several authors have conflicts of interest. Unfortunately we were forced to cancel..

3/ because he was strongly advised by his university to maintain silence and not speak publicly -- to step back from this issue. I learned from a source that his university was heavily assailed by many complaints. Other scientists who have signed the review criticizing the PRC..

4/test, the "Retraction Request Letter", a critique that got worldwide attention, have also been bombarded with attacks, their relatives are being called at night, and their universities assailed. Some are at risk of losing jobs. Even former employers are being harassed. I..

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Erik Torenberg
Erik Torenberg
@eriktorenberg
1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:


2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
LIFE
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AAdhira \U0001f319\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
AAdhira 🌙🇮🇳...
@Aadhiraspeaks
Shri Hanuman had boon to be immortal. And be present where ever there is Ram stuti.
I came across this beautiful story that I would like to share
#threadstories
#Hanuman ji is believed to live in the foothills of Himalayas. But once he spent a lot of time in Sri Lanka
1/9


Where Ravan's brother ruled for many years..
On his way back he came across tribal people from community called #Mathanga
He gave Darshan to them. The chief of the tribe asked him to keep coming back to guide their generations
Hanuman ji said that whoever recites this mantra
2/9


I will give them Darshan. But there are two conditions
1st he/she must know his relationship with me
2nd there must not be anyone around him in 950 mts radius. If present, that person must also know about my relationship with him /her.

He promised to come after every 41 yrs
3/9

The Mathangs also maintain a ‘logbook’ where they record all the words spoken and ‘leelas’ performed by Lord Hanuman.
They call him their Guru
Who teaches them how to live their lives.
A Sri Lankan organization called Setuu is studying this ‘logbook’ and also conduct
4/9

programmes for Hanuman devotees who can do ‘Sadhna‘ under the guidance of Setuu masters. Devotees who qualify all the criteria will be eligible for Hanuman’s ‘sakshaat darshan‘
The Setuu has certain conditions that need to be kept in mind which includes devoting one complete
5/9
RELIGION
Em\U0001f383jipedia \U0001f4d9
Em🎃jipedia 📙...
@Emojipedia
✨📱 iOS 12.1 📱✨
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📝 New Emojis: 158
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New in iOS 12.1: 🥰 Smiling Face With 3 Hearts https://t.co/6eajdvueip


New in iOS 12.1: 🥵 Hot Face https://t.co/jhTv1elltB


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Shaun Russell
Shaun Russell
@_ShaunRussell
"I really want to break into Product Management"

make products.

"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."

Make Products.

"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."

MAKE PRODUCTS.

Courtesy of @edbrisson's wonderful thread on breaking into comics – https://t.co/TgNblNSCBj – here is why the same applies to Product Management, too.


There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.

You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.

But – there is at least one blindingly obvious industry consensus – a Product Manager makes Products.

And they don't need to be kept at the exact right temperature, given endless resource, or carefully protected in order to do this.

They find their own way.
TECH