BC WORLD
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

Let's talk about that "Longer Telegram" making the rounds...and why it's a

 First, to be clear, it IS NOT a telegram. It's a report. I mean, it has a flipping 11.5 page executive "summary"...
...a two page table of contents...
...and clocks in at 62 pages (minus the forward and executive summary) or 73 pages (if you include the executive summary).
Of course, the author of "The Longer Telegram" calls it a "telegram" because they want it to be directly and explicitly compared to George Kennan's 1946 "Long Telegram" about US policy towards the Soviet Union.

https://t.co/rHikkOYuoT
But Kennan's "Long Telegram" is called "The Long Telegram" because it was, in fact, a telegram.

Kennan is even apologetic about that fact, as he writes at the beginning, "I apologize in advance for this burdening of telegraphic channel"
Also, Kennan's "Long Telegram" was long for a telegram, but not as a report. It clocks in at 18.5 pages.
Second, the Kennan-obsession of "The Longer Telegram"'s author is also evident by the author choosing to be anonymous.
But here is a fun fact: Kennan put his NAME on the Long Telegram
The ANONYMOUS writing came a year later (July 1947), when Kennan expanded the telegram into a report that was then published in @ForeignAffairs under the title "The Sources of Soviet Conduct"

Oh, and it wasn't "Anonymous", it was "X"
For those keeping track, the FA article was 17 pages.
Third, I love bullet points & numbered lists. I really do (ask anyone who has served on a committee with me). But "The Longer Telegram" is just TOO much.

Nearly every page of the "Executive Summary" is a list.
It doesn't get much better in the report itself.

I mean, here's a page that makes the bold move of transitioning from a bullet point list to a number list....
...where the number list then goes on for several pages!
Now, it's true that Kennan used numbered/lettered lists in his telegram. But that's because it was...again...a TELEGRAM (it also had missing words in spots as is common with telegrams)

Even then, none of the lists had 17 (SEVENTEEN!) points!
Moreover, the FA article version (again, the one that was actually anonymous) had NO bullet points or numbered lists. Just prose and paragraphs (and section headings)
Fourth, let's move to substance. After all, all of the above is cosmetic and what really matters is the substance, right? Sure, but the substance doesn't make things better in this case.
Let's start by considering the substance of Kennan's telegram.

MOST of it is about the Soviet Union itself. Indeed, 4 of the telegram's 5 parts focus on the USSR.
The final part addresses how the US should respond given the telegram's description of the USSR and its policy.

The key point is that USSR typically backs down when confronted. Therefore, a show of strength & resolve should result in the US never having to actually use force
In the FA piece, Kennan called this approach "containment"
As for "The Longer Telegram"?

If you're playing buzz-phrase bingo, mark "Liberal International Order"
Oh, and OF COURSE the report has a reference to Sun Tzu. I'll admit this got a hard 🙄 from me
I will acknowledge that the Longer Telegram's goal of "keep China in the US order" is distinct from the Long Telegram's recommendation of "keep the Soviets outside the US order".
But this recommendation for US policy towards China is not new.

It's been said better (& more economically) elsewhere.

For example, see this @CarnegieEndow report by @MiraRappHooper, @Michael_S_Chase, Matake Kamiya, Shin Kawashima, & @Yuichi_Hosoya.

https://t.co/CqOnaq2Gp1
I'll admit that my assessment of this telegram/report/memo/doorstop is influenced by my own views on the future of US-China relations, which tend toward the "hawkish" side (as I wrote recently in @WarOnTheRocks)

https://t.co/zvonnh78IS
And I would of course defer to experts on China and Chinese foreign policy (though from what I've seen, they are also NOT IMPRESSED)

https://t.co/bdfGhpBFjL
But, overall, this report/telegram/whatever falls WAY short of it's aspiration of mimicking Kennan.

[END]

More from Paul Poast

Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Why are civil-mil scholars upset about Austin Lloyd's nomination as the 28th Secretary of Defense?

Consider the nomination of the 3rd Secretary of Defense: George Marshall

[THREAD]


In 1950, Truman wanted to fire the second SecDef, Louis Johnson, and install George Marshall as Secretary of Defense.


There was a problem: when the Department of Defense was created in 1947, section 202 of the 1947 National Security Act (which created the DoD, then called "The National Military Establishment") would not allow recently retired officers to serve as SecDef

https://t.co/bWx4h1OFah


Marshall had only retired as a 5-star General in 1947


Of course, by 1950 Marshall had already served as Secretary of State and had proposed the "Marshall Plan" for the recovery of Europe
HISTORY
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
GOVERNMENT
Advertisement
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
What's the "value" offered by international relations scholarship?

What does it mean to think about world events "like an international relations scholar"?

Trump's order to withdrawal 🇺🇸 troops from 🇸🇴 offers a useful

This event could be viewed from a variety of angles, from the "micro-level" on up.

International Relations scholars/analysts can and do use each of the following angles, though not all are strictly speaking taking an "International Relations angle".

Let's explore the angles.

The "country-expert" angle entails discussing the event by laying out the situation within Somalia, providing details on key figures involved and perhaps how the conflict has disrupted Somalia's internal governance and

The "Military/Security analyst" angle involves outlining the details of what US troops presently do in Somalia and how they carry out their mission (including equipment, mission, and tactics).

See this @ChathamHouse report by

The "Area Studies/Regional Expert" angle involves discussing the decision as an event that will impact the Horn of Africa or East Africa more
TRUMP
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
After 4 years of Donald Trump, the US must "reassure" its allies.

That's what I'm reading/hearing lately, such as in this @nytimes piece. What do international relations scholars know about reassuring allies? Can it be done? Is it even

This passage from the article captures well the call for "reassurance": the US must convince its allies in Asia and Europe that the US would indeed use its nukes to protect them.


That's a tall order!

Indeed, such a tall order that it's been a major question explored by international relations scholars for a long time. A LONG TIME.

The topic was of keen debate in the 1950s, with Henry Kissinger writing a series of pieces on the topic, such as this 1956 @ForeignAffairs

The academic discussion picked up in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

This included Robert Schelling's paper in the first issue of the Journal of Conflict
BIDEN
Paul Poast
Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Was the attack on the US Capitol an attempted coup?

Rather than debate that question here (or in another forum), I'm making it an assignment. Specifically, I'm asking my Quantitative Security students to determine if it belongs in our coup/attempted coup datasets.

[THREAD]

A core goal of this course is to introduce students to how Large-N data on violence and security are created.

We put WAY TOO much emphasis on estimators & software (Stata v R 🙄); not enough on the quality of the data going into the analysis.

First, what happened? @johncarey03755 offers a succinct

Second, I'll ask the students to read some of the recent pieces that say the event was NOT a coup attempt.

These include...

...detailed twitter threads by
GOVERNMENT

More from World

Fidato
Fidato
@tequieremos
On this day in 2007, the bomb blasts in Samjhauta Express killed 68 people including 44 Pakistanis. The immediate investigations revealed irrefutable evidence about the masterminds. In this thread, I would share some Indian newspaper clips which covered the investigations.


1. Lt Col Prasad Purohit, a serving Indian army officer, was arrested for terror conspiracy in the Malegaon blast case. He was the co founder of Abhinav Bharat, a right wing Hindu organisation. He admitted that he was the mastermind.

(The Times of India, Pune, 7 November 2008)


2. Lt Col Purohit met Pragya Thakur on 5 Oct 2008 to tell her that "Our People" had carried out the killings in Orissa, burnt down two churches and also carried out the Malegaon blast.

(The Indian Express, Pune, 24 Nov 2008)

Ironically, Pragya is BJP's MP today.


3. During his narco analysis test, Lt Col Purohit told officers that Praveen Togadia was responsible for the “Samjhauta Express Blasts”. He asked me to find out from Dr Dev, how much RDX was remaining after the blast.

(Pune Mirror, 19 Nov 2008)

4. In his narco analysis test, Lt Col Purohit gave sensational information that he supplied explosives for Ajmer and Malegaon blasts at the instance of Mahant Dayanand Pandey.

(Sakal, Pune and Pudhari, Pune, both of 15 Nov 2008)
ALL , WORLD
\u0938\u0940 \u092c\u0940 \u092a\u0902\u091c\u093e\u092c\u0940
सी बी पंजाबी...
@cbpunjabi
How PM Imran Khan was humiliated during OIC conference.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has condemned the construction of the Ayodhya Ram Temple in India at the Conference of Islamic Countries (OIC).

UAE,which chaired the confernce asked Imran,What is the problem for the Islamic world with India building a temple in their country?
What is the problem for the Muslims of the world with the AyodhyaRama Temple? We hv no interest in interfering in the intrnal affairs of India.

In addition, we have provided 13 acres of land in our country for temple construction and 13.5 acres of land for parking and other facilities for Hindus.

Nowhere in the world have Hindus, who live and study attempt or incite riots or carry out suicide attacks in the name of

religion. They are peaceful and live according to the laws of the land.

Temple construction in India is an internal matter of India.  That is not the issue to be discussed here now.  India will look after India.

When will Pakistan repay the money it

borrowed from OlC? All Islamic countries except Pakistan contributed to this fund. Pakistan only borrows but failed to pay up.

Then the President of the Maldives stood up and began to say "The separatist and coup attempts instigated by Pakistan have created many internal
WORLD
Advertisement
Cancel the Dementiacrats - Stu Cvrk
Cancel the Dementiacra...
@STUinSD
Thread – Excerpt from a Ross Rant (Election-related)

1. These following are excerpts from a recent “Ross Rant.” Joel Ross publishes these periodic reports that provide commentary on the changing scene with an eye toward wise future investments.

2.

There never was going to be a new stimulus deal. Pelosi did not want to do anything that might help Trump, and she was hoping to trap McConnell, and make him look like he killed it so they could argue the Dems need to control the Senate.

3. My sense is that backfired. It is clear to most that she is the problem, and why, and that she does not give a damn about the people who are suffering. It is all about getting power. Unfortunately, Wall St kept being fooled thinking there would be a deal.

4. So the market was up and down depending on which false rumor they believed. Classic Wall St. Buy on rumor and hope. Sell when it does not happen, then buy again. Trader’s dream.

5. The EU is now in the midst of a major virus surge and that will kill any hope of a near term economic rebound as lockdowns get put back on. While in the US there are a few stories of hospitals in rural areas getting to capacity, reality is, most of the US has lots of capacity.
WORLD
Fed Min of Info & Cu
Fed Min of Info & Cu
@FMICNigeria
HMIC Alh. Lai Mohammed addresses a Press Conference on plans to return to Lagos - Lekki Toll Gate under the guise of #EndSARS protest.


PERPETRATION OF VIOLENCE UNDER THE GUISE OF #ENDSARS: NEVER AGAIN - FG

Being the text of the press conference addressed by the Honourable Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, in Abuja on Thursday, 11 Feb. 2021

Good morning gentlemen and thank you for honouring our invitation once again.

2.   As you may be aware, some EndSars proponents have given notice of their plan to return to Lagos - Lekki Toll Gate to be specific – on Saturday, February 13th 2021.

The ''Occupy Lekki Toll Gate'' flyers have been circulating online, with the proponents threatening that ''Lagos will burn'' again.

3.   Let me be clear: While peaceful protests are the constitutional rights of Nigerians, violent protests are not. At this time, the chances that any peaceful protest will be hijacked are very high.
WORLD
Jacaranda News
Jacaranda News
@JacaNews
Happening now: President Cyril Ramaphosa has taken to the podium to deliver the #SONA2021 before a hybrid sitting.


#SONA2021 | Ramaphosa briefly commemorates the release of the late former president Nelson Mandela from the Victor Verster Prison in Cape Town in 1990.

'It was clear that freedom was tangible.'

#SONA2021 | Ramaphosa likens the country's resilience to that of the fynboos.

"We have risen time and time again from the depths of darkness to herald a new day."

#SONA2021 | Ramaphosa hails the efforts of front liners and essential workers amid the raging coronavirus pandemic. We have made mistakes but we have also stood together.

"It is a story of solidarity and compassion."

#SONA2021 | Ramaphosa: This year is about change, progress and rebirth.
WORLD

You May Also Like

Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Ameda Temple
Ernakulam, Kerala 🚩
#keralatemples

Ameda Ksetram is located in the banks of Vembanad Lake. Temple is very unique and Powerful Sarpa Kavu.
Parashurama did Prathishta here. Vilakku which was lighted by Parasurama is still seen inside the temple.


The oil from this lamp is given to bhakthas for recovering from illness.

Sthala puranam says that, Once, when Parashurama was travelling through Kerala, he reached this place. As it was evening, he stepped into the Lake for Sandhya Vandanam
At that Sapthamathrukkal 👇


(Brahmini, maheshwari, kowmari, vaishnavi, varahi, indirani and chamundi) were travelling there on a tortoise through the water. The tortoise was unable to move, because the Water had made its way for Parashurama. The place where the tortoise became Still came to be known as 👇


Aama Ni Nidayam' ( Aama means tortoise) and later become ‘Ameda’. Parashurama came to know about the journey of Sapthamathrukkal. Thus, he did Prathishta for the Sapthamathrukkal here.
7 forms of Aadi Parashakthi are Sapthamathrukkal. Veerabhadra and Ganesha have Sannidhi here.


The main Garbhagriham in the temple is the Sapthamathrukkal. There are Sannidhi to Nagas, Nagayakshi and Vishnu too. Sarparadhana or snake worship is done here. Naga Panchami is famous here. Those who have Naga Dosham come here and get relieved of their Doshas.
🕉🙏🕉
ALL
Kavita
Kavita
@Kavitastocks
There are many strategies in market 📉and it's possible to get monthly 4% return consistently if you master 💪in one strategy .
One of those strategies which I like is Iron Fly✈️

Few important points on Iron fly stategy

This is fixed loss🔴 defined stategy ,so you are aware of your losses . You know your risk ⚠️and breakeven points to exit the positions.
Risk is defined , so at psychological🧠 level you are at peace🙋‍♀️

How to implement
1. Should be done on Tuesday or Wednesday for next week expiry after 1-2 pm
2. Take view of the market ,looking at daily chart
3. Then do weekly iron fly.
4. No need to hold this till expiry day .

5.Exit it one day before expiry or when you see more than 2% within the week.
5. High vix is preferred for iron fly
6. Can be executed with less capital of 3-5 lakhs .
https://t.co/MYDgWkjYo8 have R:2R so over all it should be good.

8. If you are able to get 6% return monthly ,it means close to 100% return on your capital per annum.
ALL , OPTIONSLEARNINGS
Advertisement
Julien \U0001f332
Julien 🌲
@julien
1/ there is this sense when you are young that your accomplishments need to be a list of things that seem impressive to others. A list of several items you did.

This isn't actually right, so here is another suggestion.

2/ I remember being 26 and writing about reading 52 books a year. I wrote blog posts about it. They got copied. It became "a thing." Now it's in Twitter bios. It looks impressive but it's insanely useless and I shouldn't have done it.

3/ what I should have known at that time is that only young idiots like myself, with no accomplishments, find list of tiny achievements impressive. Anyone who has actually done anything of substance doesn't gaf

4/ what is actually difficult, and worthwhile, instead is to do ONE single thing for a very, very long time. It's much harder and much rarer and results in outlier outcomes much more often.

Of course you can find this out too late if you are chasing the dragon of Ted talks etc

5/ if I had only worked on a startup for a year, I would've gotten nowhere, the same way that if you lift for 3 months, it achieves nothing. Everything good in life comes from perseverance, but at the beginning, you're just like "I need to be somebody!!!"
LIFE
Devdutta
Devdutta
@Devdutta96
Please please please take your cyber security seriously even if you don’t consider yourself a high risk person. Here are a few easy things to start with. 1/n

Switch from WhatsApp to Signal and enable disappearing messages. Most of us cannot stop using WhatsApp entirely but at least turn off back ups to Google Drive or iCloud. 2/n

Do not have private conversations using the messaging service on any social media platform like Facebook, Instagram or Twitter. 3/n

Switch from Gmail to ProtonMail or any other secure email service provider. 4/n


Switch from Google Docs to CryptPad or RiseUp Pad.
CYBER SECURITY , IT PRIVACY , CYBER SECURITY STEPS
Michael King \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
Michael King 🇺🇸...
@8MichaelKing
Ever notice how the top niches are centered around health, wealth, and relationships?

There's a deep-rooted psychological (and biological) reason why.

And today, I'm gonna to explain all of it so you can start profiting off of this knowledge 💰💰

*Now, this thread is going to be long and in depth. Make sure to favorite the top tweet now so you can come back to it later.

So. Down to the very core of every living being (humans, dolphins, bacteria, aliens), there are only two drivers:
1. To survive
2. To reproduce

Right off the bat, we know that sex is a primary driver to human behavior.

This would also mean that each gender has its own insecurities regarding sex.

Men have a subconscious fear that their woman will leave them for someone more successful

Women have a fear that their man will leave them for someone younger & better-looking

We can conclude that men are attracted to looks, and women are attracted to status.

This is human nature down to its very core.

Crazy, blue-haired feminists will try to argue and say otherwise.

But, 50 years of feminism DOES NOT OVERRIDE millions of years of evolutionary biology.

Here's a quick visualization exercise so you can see how true all this is...
STARTUPS