sure, only request. Plz do not take it negative. Get over metric like PE, even if use it , at least take cash flow based PE. Many times, it would make worst investments attractive n decent one unattractive. It has lot of bias, limitation n constraint. 1 must know before using it

Some company's concalls are addictive. You go through one n learn so much about industry that u keep going. Name some of such companies. Let me start - Heritage concalls on Dairy Industry

Your list?
If it's better than 10 year multi bagger stock list, then, like n forward 😄

One of biggest insight I can give to long term investors - Never never invest in stock where monthly RSI14 is <50, stock attempts to cross it but stays below it. Have seen enough charts to conclude. Probabilities wont be in favor and can see multi year time correction

1/1 The statement might look simple but has lot of nuances to understand. The best way is go open charts and explore. Any session I take my focus is on taking one simple statement n bring all nuances. May be sometime will do for this too but you need to explore it yourself.

2/2 Must have some basic knowledge of time frames, longevity of sata etc etc technical analysis to consume it fully. Explore it, it's a beautiful world.

Prediction is an addition in financial world many suffer from

Sorry, addiction

Never make the mistake of selling a great business just because it's overvalued.

Once in a while one should study the company which lacked the execution, which always over-promised and under delivered. Check how market valued it over the period of time. As it gives us the framework to avoid potential capital allocation mistakes i future. 🧪⚗️

@Namajapa In my experience value stocks are the ones with undervalued optionality - the possibility things get unexpectedly better. Expensive story stocks by contrast anticipate and price in all manner of good future outcomes long before they are actually delivered/deliverable.

1/ Howard Marks once said that before buying an asset, above anything, he wants to know “the amount of optimism that’s in the price.”

All investors can do this with a handy tool: The Reverse DCF.

I'll also leave a download link to my compact DCF Model at the end of this thread.

2/ We all know a regular DCF. But's what a "Reverse DCF"?

If we consider that a DCF is a Linear Equation, we could say the 'X' (The unknown variable) is the Intrinsic Value.

In a Reverse DCF, we start with the Market Price and try to find some other variable, say Sales Growth.

3/ Let's start by taking an example: VST Industries, a Cigarette-maker based in India.

I valued them on my blog a while ago. I'll be retaining the old assumptions, but using the latest financials.

So please note that the Valuation isn't accurate

4/ This is a "Regular DCF" of VST Industries. The Assumptions I've made indicate an Overvaluation.

The Intrinsic Value is Rs. 3,012, but the Market Price is Rs. 3,492.

Let's not dwell on whether this is correct, since we discussed earlier that this isn't an accurate Valuation.

5/ If we want to do a "Reverse DCF" instead, we need to pick a different variable to 'find'. Say, I will pick the Sales Growth numbers.

I will now remove the Sales Growth numbers from the Model and assume that Sales Growth is the same across the years for ease of calculation.

@unseenvalue Got it sir 🙏