BC TRADING
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

1/ Who are the investors in GBTC?

Why is there a premium?

And what is the sweet trade they’re taking advantage of?

A thread 🧵

 2/ Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust made headlines again with their record 1-day addition of 16,244 Bitcoin, adding to their stack of over 630,000 Bitcoin and an AUM of ~$23B. Evidently business is good...So who are their investors? And is GBTC’s premium an incentive or disincentive?
3/ What is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)?Grayscale owns BTC in the trust & investors buy shares to represent a # of BTC. There’s a 2%/yr fee+a “premium.”The premium is the diff. btwn underlying BTC value(Native Asset Value or “NAV”)vs. mkt price of holdings(what shares cost)
4/ There are 2 layers of investors. There are the base layer investors - accredited investors selected to buy into the private placement of the fund at the “NAV” price aka the price of the underlying BTC value
5/ They can send USD or Bitcoin and receive a # of shares equivalent to the BTC value (0.00094919 BTC/share). One catch is its 1 way - Once you put BTC into the trust, it can’t be redeemed. Investors can sell their shares, but the BTC will remain in the trust and off the market
6/ Base layer investors have a 6 mth lockup b4 they can sell shares in the open mkt to the 2nd layer of investors. These 2nd investors must pay a higher, mkt price for the shares. Again, the “premium” is the diff. btwn price of open market shares vs. underlying BTC priced shares
7/ The largest investor is Three Arrows Capital, which recently increased a $259M position to $1.4B (~6% holding in the trust). They are one of the investors taking advantage of the trade by getting in as a private placement at the base layer of the fund
8/ By investing at NAV, at base layer, their shares are locked for 6 mths but they then sell the shares at the higher mkt price, locking in the premium. The premium historically stays ~20%, but can⬆️in a bull mkt where demand for shares is high (in Dec., it was +40%)
9/ Another investor doing this? Blockfi (~5% shares in the trust). Blockfi will give you 6% return when you lend them BTC, b/c they can then lend your BTC to those like GBTC. In this case, they lend Grayscale the BTC and get in on the fund where they take advantage of the premium
10/ For those 2nd layer investors who buy shares in open mkt, the premium is a magnifying risk. If BTC dips hard then losses deepen b/c you have the NAV (price of BTC) drop AND a drop in the premium you bought. Likewise,if you buy b4 a bull mkt/premium pump,your gains are greater
11/ Why the premium?It's the mkt gap btwn supply/demand. Demand for shares > supply b/c new shares are continuously created,but delayed by the 6 mth lockup.Conversely, ETFs keep premiums in check b/c new shares can be created but have no lockup/trade now,arbitraging premiums away
12/ Why do smaller, 2nd investors accept GBTC premium risk vs. a pure BTC buy? 1) You can buy it easily w/ your traditional brokerage acct 2) You avoid self custody 3) Tax advantages, its IRA eligible 4) If you think there’s a bull run soon you take advantage of the premium pump
13/ Accredited investors obviously have a strong incentive w/ the premium to enter the private placement, but it's more than that. For some institutional investors GBTC is one of the few ways they can gain BTC exposure
14/ Many investment funds have governing charters restricting direct crypto investment and/or they dn’t want to custody BTC. But everyone is able to invest in publicly traded assets,like GBTC,so they get the best of both worlds. Internal regulations allow it & they avoid custody
15/ This won’t last https://t.co/iY4DKjIHuh the mkt matures&there are more options to trade BTC on a public mkt(BTCETF),there will be fewer 2nd investors willing to pay the premium and it will drop to meet lower demand.Then,GBTC will lower the 2% mgmt fee&try to convert to an ETF
16/ TL;DR: The GBTC premium occurs on the 2nd market and provides a very attractive trade for those accredited investors able to join the private placement and invest at Bitcoin’s NAV at the fund’s base level. However, this premium will begin to disappear as the market matures
https://t.co/0EAQeZkcPg

More from Trading

Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
1/ How to review quarterly earnings 🧵

A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example

⬇️

2/ The BIG question: Is the thesis on track❓

Other question:

❓Is revenue growing?
❓Are margins stable/expanding?
❓Profits?
❓Balance sheet?
❓New opportunities?
❓New threats?

3/ I open 4 browser tabs

Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter

Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)

Tab 3 - Analyst estimates

Tab 4 - Call Transcript


4/ Tabs 1 & 2 - Find the current & previous earnings report

I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"

I click on "press release"

Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter

It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation


5/ Tab 3 - Find the quarterly analyst estimates

Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance

The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates

The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly
TRADING , ALL , AR
Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
CHEAT-SHEET

Multiple Confirmation short.

A Short Entry that we shared in 2020.

Study it point wise.

1. Bearish Candle type and lowering of volume on Price rise.

2. OBV divergence.

3. Accumulation with Bearish candles and Volume increase on Price decrease.

STUDY IT!


Explanation

1. When price increases with a decreasing volume, it's bearish.

2. OBV, On Balance Volume should be correlated with price.
If price increases without similar increase in OBV, it's bearish.

3. During consolidation, if the volume increases during dumps, it's bearish
TRADING
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Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
@javia_savan You answered it yourself 🙂
Adjustment cost is way too high for bnf. Sometimes bnf does exceed nifty in vol crush, but nifty overall is more consistent.
TRADING
TraderLion
TraderLion
@TraderLion_
20 lessons from trading legend Stan Weinstein:

Volume is a gauge of how powerful the buyers are... Never trust a breakout that isn't accompanied by a significant increase in volume.

1/20
TRADING
Trader Abhishek
Trader Abhishek
@KillerTrader_
Introduction to imbalance charts (orderflow trading):

A 🧵

(1/n)

Orderflow charts essentially show the real time buying and selling happening in the markets.

In below chart, you can see how market sell orders are shown to the bid side and market buy orders are shown to the ask side.

(2/n)


Using this, one can identify big buying and selling happening at various prices.

Imbalance charts takes this one step forward. How so? Read on to find out.

(3/n)

Imbalance charts shows buying and selling imbalances at various price points. How does it matter?

Imbalance here implies to what extent is buying more than selling and vice versa.

(4/n)

Why is that important? As a trader, if we know that buying at a particular level is x times more than selling or vice versa, it would help us understand the strength of supply or demand coming into the market.

(5/n)
ALL , TRADING

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क्या आप जानते हैं कि क्या है, पितृ पक्ष में कौवे को खाना देने के पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण!

श्राद्ध पक्ष में कौओं का बड़ा ही महत्व है। कहते है कौआ यम का प्रतीक है, यदि आपके हाथों दिया गया भोजन ग्रहण कर ले, तो ऐसा माना जाता है कि पितरों की कृपा आपके ऊपर है और वे आपसे ख़ुश है।


कुछ लोग कहते हैं की व्यक्ति मरकर सबसे पहले कौवे के रूप में जन्म लेता है और उसे खाना खिलाने से वह भोजन पितरों को मिलता है

शायद हम सबने अपने घर के किसी बड़े बुज़ुर्ग, किसी पंडित या ज्योतिषाचार्य से ये सुना होगा। वे अनगिनत किस्से सुनाएंगे, कहेंगे बड़े बुज़ुर्ग कह गए इसीलिए ऐसा करना

शायद ही हमें कोई इसके पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण बता सके।

हमारे ऋषि मुनि और पौराणिक काल में रहने वाले लोग मुर्ख नहीं थे! कभी सोचियेगा कौवों को पितृ पक्ष में खिलाई खीर हमारे पूर्वजों तक कैसे पहुंचेगी?

हमारे ऋषि मुनि विद्वान थे, वे जो बात करते या कहते थे उसके पीछे कोई न कोई वैज्ञानिक कारण छुपा होता था।

एक बहुत रोचक तथ्य है पितृ पक्ष, भादो( भाद्रपद) प्रकृति और काक के बीच।

एक बात जो कह सकते कि हम सब ने स्वतः उग आये पीपल या बरगद का पेड़/ पौधा किसी न किसी दीवार, पुरानी

इमारत, पर्वत या अट्टालिकाओं पर ज़रूर देखा होगा। देखा है न?

ज़रा सोचिये पीपल या बरगद की बीज कैसे पहुंचे होंगे वहाँ तक? इनके बीज इतने हल्के भी नहीं होते के हवा उन्हें उड़ाके ले जा सके।
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Simon DeDeo
Simon DeDeo
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This is a pretty valiant attempt to defend the "Feminist Glaciology" article, which says conventional wisdom is wrong, and this is a solid piece of scholarship. I'll beg to differ, because I think Jeffery, here, is confusing scholarship with "saying things that seem right".


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There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.


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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Samayapuram Mariamman Temple
#Trichy
#Tamilnadutemples 🚩

Samayapuram Mariamman Temple is located in Samayapuram of
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Mariamman is Parashakti herself who blesses with prosperity and she is believed to cure all diseases.


Paramashiva, Mahavishnu and Brahma Deva are believed to have taken blessings of Mariamman here.

Om Shakti Para Shakti
🙏🕉🙏
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Choosing the Right JavaScript Framework

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https://t.co/G7zeiKhXme


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A. At one time, quite possibly. A few years back we literally had framework overload. I feel it really has solidified into a few very strong choices.

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