The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a given task are prone to overestimate their ability at that task.
Put simply, humans are notoriously incapable of objective evaluation of their competency levels.
Dunning-Kruger Effect 101
In a year when the markets have minted many new self-proclaimed geniuses, it is worth remembering the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
But what is the Dunning-Kruger Effect and how does it work?
Here's Dunning-Kruger Effect 101!
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The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a given task are prone to overestimate their ability at that task.
Put simply, humans are notoriously incapable of objective evaluation of their competency levels.
Their paper, entitled Unskilled and Unaware of It, summarized, "People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains."
He hadn't worn a mask.
Instead, he had put lemon juice on his face, believing it would make him invisible to cameras.
Even after he was caught, he was legitimately incredulous that his plan with the lemon juice hadn't worked.
Their finding: the worst performers consistently overestimated their abilities relative to others.
Let's look at a few examples of this bias in action and how you can avoid its pitfalls.
As the saying goes, "everyone is a genius in a bull market."
When markets are ripping and your portfolio seems to grow by the day, many fall victim to the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
We may wrongly attribute this performance to our innate talent as investors.
With politics, intellectual humility is an aberration, not the norm.
Politicians espouse policy ideas with great confidence even if they have a weak handle of the details.
It's not shocking that we see Cobra Effects in the policy realm. https://t.co/gKuHcJTjW7
Cobra Effect 101
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) October 21, 2020
With the rise of government and central bank intervention in the economy and markets, the term "cobra effect" has experienced a revival.
But what is a "cobra effect" and how does it work?
Here's Cobra Effect 101!
\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/Gs1199yes5
Everyone has had that one boss - the know-it-all who actually knows very little.
These bosses (who typically get stuck in middle management) hold back organizations from high performance.
They are easy to spot - we all know who they are.
Beware this boss!
So how do we avoid it?
Here are a few strategies.
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The Circle of Competence is the set of topic areas that align with a person's expertise.
Be ruthless in identifying and protecting the boundaries of your Circle of Competence.
Hint: it's usually smaller than you think.
Most people have an inherent discomfort with saying, "I don't know."
Change that. Embrace what you don't know.
The world would be a much better, more efficient place if we stripped out the fluff and cut to the "I don't know" chase.
Think you know something? Challenge yourself, your reasoning, and your assumptions as a matter of practice.
It's uncomfortable, but it is also essential to creating non-linear outcomes. https://t.co/31EZVZDLM1
First Principles 101
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) November 19, 2020
Many of the world's greatest thinkers and doers - from @naval and @elonmusk to @nntaleb and @chamath - tout the importance of first principles thinking.
But what is "first principles thinking" and how does it work?
Here's First Principles 101!
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Know your competencies, focus on them.
Know your incompetencies, avoid (or outsource) them.
So the next time you catch yourself marveling at your skill at a task, remember the Dunning-Kruger Effect and the strategies for avoiding it.
For more on this topic, check out the resources below:
https://t.co/5TpIxyWjCD
https://t.co/mYfcPw2rcH
https://t.co/9lmroooQHn
https://t.co/2rlAXpPGt6
https://t.co/sAqJLE1gJi
https://t.co/5vAlRTbi5u
For more educational threads on business, money, finance, and economics, follow me on Twitter and check out my meta-thread below. https://t.co/53UhhfzIcp
1/ An Allegory of Finance
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 18, 2020
I have been posting a lot of educational (and humorous!) threads on finance, money, and economics.
My mission is simple: to demystify these concepts and make them accessible to everyone.
All of the threads can be found below. Enjoy and please share!
More from Sahil Bloom
Short Squeeze 101
If you follow financial markets (or if you watch Billions), you've heard the phrase "short squeeze" used quite frequently.
But what is a "short squeeze" and how does it work?
Here's Short Squeeze 101!
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1/ First, the basics.
The "short" in "short squeeze" refers to the concept of short selling.
The basics are covered in my thread below.
https://t.co/xecJYNCxMs
TL;DR - short selling is a way of betting against a stock - i.e. betting that its price will decline.
2/ "Short interest" is a measure of how heavily an asset is shorted by the market.
It is the total number of shares that have been sold short (borrowed and sold), but have not yet been covered (bought and returned).
It is usually measured as a % of the # of shares outstanding.
3/ A "short squeeze" occurs when a heavily-shorted asset experiences a rapid upward price movement.
When this happens, short sellers may be forced to close their short positions (i.e. buy the stock and return it to the broker), further accelerating the upward price movement.
4/ Let's look at a simple example to show this in action.
We will use Tesla, one of the most heavily-shorted stocks in the world.
Imagine the stock price is $1,000 per share. This seems crazy. Ricky Rational decides to short the stock at this level.
If you follow financial markets (or if you watch Billions), you've heard the phrase "short squeeze" used quite frequently.
But what is a "short squeeze" and how does it work?
Here's Short Squeeze 101!
👇👇👇
1/ First, the basics.
The "short" in "short squeeze" refers to the concept of short selling.
The basics are covered in my thread below.
https://t.co/xecJYNCxMs
TL;DR - short selling is a way of betting against a stock - i.e. betting that its price will decline.
1/ Short Selling 101
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 6, 2020
With the markets continuing to rally, there has been more talk of \u201cshorting\u201d or \u201cshort selling\u201d stocks.
But what does that mean and how does it work?
Here\u2019s a quick educational primer: Short Selling 101 pic.twitter.com/JTrJmuY7fI
2/ "Short interest" is a measure of how heavily an asset is shorted by the market.
It is the total number of shares that have been sold short (borrowed and sold), but have not yet been covered (bought and returned).
It is usually measured as a % of the # of shares outstanding.
3/ A "short squeeze" occurs when a heavily-shorted asset experiences a rapid upward price movement.
When this happens, short sellers may be forced to close their short positions (i.e. buy the stock and return it to the broker), further accelerating the upward price movement.
4/ Let's look at a simple example to show this in action.
We will use Tesla, one of the most heavily-shorted stocks in the world.
Imagine the stock price is $1,000 per share. This seems crazy. Ricky Rational decides to short the stock at this level.
Shared a lot of wins publicly in 2021, so it feels appropriate to share the losses just as publicly.
Here are my 10 biggest Ls from 2021 (and what I learned from each one):
Dopamine Addiction
Humans were not made for social media—the dopamine hits are dangerous.
I fell victim.
On several occasions, I found myself constantly refreshing my notifications on a viral thread.
It was gross.
I’m learning to physically force separation to avoid it.
Hustle Culture Fail
I spent the better part of the last decade as a hustle culture aficionado.
Then I burned myself out and was totally incapable of thinking creatively.
I made a change. Now I:
• Work like a lion
• Sleep 8 hours
• Take more walks
My life & work have 10Xed.
Solana Fail
I invested in Solana early and was riding high when it hit $30+ in April—10X+ on my investment.
I sold it and thought I was the next Warren Buffett.
Then it hit $100, $200, & $250—as I stubbornly sat on the sidelines refusing to re-enter.
I am not Warren Buffett.
The Hedonic Treadmill
I tweeted this in May—and then failed to practice what I preached.
Every win felt a bit less exciting. It’s part of our biology, but it was no way to live.
Measure internally, not externally.
Here are my 10 biggest Ls from 2021 (and what I learned from each one):
Dopamine Addiction
Humans were not made for social media—the dopamine hits are dangerous.
I fell victim.
On several occasions, I found myself constantly refreshing my notifications on a viral thread.
It was gross.
I’m learning to physically force separation to avoid it.
Hustle Culture Fail
I spent the better part of the last decade as a hustle culture aficionado.
Then I burned myself out and was totally incapable of thinking creatively.
I made a change. Now I:
• Work like a lion
• Sleep 8 hours
• Take more walks
My life & work have 10Xed.
Solana Fail
I invested in Solana early and was riding high when it hit $30+ in April—10X+ on my investment.
I sold it and thought I was the next Warren Buffett.
Then it hit $100, $200, & $250—as I stubbornly sat on the sidelines refusing to re-enter.
I am not Warren Buffett.
The Hedonic Treadmill
I tweeted this in May—and then failed to practice what I preached.
Every win felt a bit less exciting. It’s part of our biology, but it was no way to live.
Measure internally, not externally.
The Hedonic Treadmill is real.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) May 21, 2021
Humans have a tendency to quickly return to a baseline level of happiness after positive events.
Step off the treadmill.
Focus on increasing your happiness baseline, not on the height or frequency of the spikes above it.
More from Trading
Many of you have seen the famous Westrum Organizational Typology model, so prominently featured in State of DevOps Research, Accelerate, DevOps Handbook, etc.
This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety
Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯
It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.
I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper: https://t.co/7X00O67VgS)
I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"
Dr. Westrum writes about China Lake Research Labs: "its design and structure had one purpose: to foster technical creativity. It did; China Lake operated far outside the normal envelope... Sidewinder & others were "impossible" accomplishments,
I love this book because it describes traits of organizations that routinely create and maintain greatness: US space program (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo), US Naval Reactors, Toyota, Team of Teams, Tesla, the tech giants (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Google)
This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety
Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯
It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.
I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper: https://t.co/7X00O67VgS)
I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"
Dr. Westrum writes about China Lake Research Labs: "its design and structure had one purpose: to foster technical creativity. It did; China Lake operated far outside the normal envelope... Sidewinder & others were "impossible" accomplishments,
I love this book because it describes traits of organizations that routinely create and maintain greatness: US space program (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo), US Naval Reactors, Toyota, Team of Teams, Tesla, the tech giants (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Google)
