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Saved by @jay_millerjay

Many of you have seen the famous Westrum Organizational Typology model, so prominently featured in State of DevOps Research, Accelerate, DevOps Handbook, etc.

This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety

 Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯

It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.
@nicolefv I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper: https://t.co/7X00O67VgS)

I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"
@nicolefv Dr. Westrum writes about China Lake Research Labs: "its design and structure had one purpose: to foster technical creativity. It did; China Lake operated far outside the normal envelope... Sidewinder & others were "impossible" accomplishments, w/aplomb"

https://t.co/OjY5KSDbNK
@nicolefv I love this book because it describes traits of organizations that routinely create and maintain greatness: US space program (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo), US Naval Reactors, Toyota, Team of Teams, Tesla, the tech giants (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Google)
@nicolefv "Research and development is not a business that can be carefully planned and directed, not if you expect to make progress rapidly and economically." Burton Klein, Economist, 1958.

"What is the underlying science [and theory]?
@nicolefv "What accounts for successful innovation? What role do leadership and organizational design play?" What incredible questions!

"Today Rabinow, professional inventor w/230+ US patents, an advisor to NIST: 'all inventors come up w/many idea; you must know that most are trash."
@nicolefv One aspect Westrum hints at is need for constraints & scarcity. One factor for Sidewinder success is that it was hidden as an official program for years, classified as "fuse research," which could be easily classified.

This prevented expansions in budget, oversight, meddling
@nicolefv Counter-examples at this time were the Falcon (which became Phoenix), and Sparrow, both of which underperformed for years, unable to hit their targets.

Dr. Bill McLean is the center of the narrative, Ph.D. from Caltech, who led the program, and eventually China Lake
@nicolefv One dynamic with China Lake (let's call it CL) was minimum of organization and hierarchy: the important point: "Each person did the job for which they were best fitted. One day they'd be directing associates. Next day, it could be other day around."
@nicolefv In the interview, Dr. Westrum suggested that this is the opposite of a hierarchy, where managers tell workers what to do — instead, you want an org that give the job who can best do it.

That could be answering a question, dictating what the work should be, or doing the work.
@nicolefv Aside: that sounds kind of obvious, right? But contrast this to how many orgs actually work. This is about whether or not the organization respects knowledge.

"Lockheed Skunk Works shared many similar traits... Director "Kelly" Johnson promised P-80 Shooting star in
@nicolefv "...in 180 days; his hand-picked team did it in 141 days." Skunk Works was a small team, but China Lake had figured out how to scale this dynamic to thousands of employees
@nicolefv "Merle Tuve, maestro in charge of developing the proximity fuse in WWII, once said: "I don't want any damn fool in this laboratory to save money. I only want them to save time."

(Also resonates w/me. As @chawlady wrote: we stopped optimizing for cost, and optimized for speed)
@nicolefv @chawlady "Management theorist Deborah Dougherty argued successful products generally come from orgs whose design, mfg, sales, & marketing depts focus on meeting customer’s carefully studied needs.
@nicolefv @chawlady "Getting these four departments to focus on a common, well-chosen goal is the secret to success. What is remarkable about McLean is that he combined in a single person all these activities."

Dr. Westrum says that the literature calls this the "technical maestro"
@nicolefv @chawlady "In conceiving his missile, McLean determined to use “the minimum amount of garbage you had to hang on the rocket in order to make it home.” Experiments would tell him just how much garbage this was.."

(other missile programs burdened with lots of premature requirements)
@nicolefv @chawlady The dynamics of large, public, official missile programs (not Sidewinder): "years of effort go into preparing the systems, and often tests went badly. Millions of $$, and in some cases, fate of whole business divisions rode on the outcomes... Raytheon had 6K engrs on Falcon
@nicolefv @chawlady "...emotions ran high in the control room, and a man could break into tears when his missile failed." (painting the high-stakes dynamics in these massive programs that prematurely created rigid boundaries)
@nicolefv @chawlady Okay, taking a break. Will continue soon. I feel like I highlighted the entire book — I'm writing up my notes to clarify my own thinking on this. (thank you @RoamResearch)
...also, in addition to @nicolefv, while I'm thinking about it, my thanks to @jezhumble who first introduced me to Dr. Westrum's work, as it appeared in Lean Enterprise, and @allspaw, who sent me two of his papers over the years!

More to come later...

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by Peter Lynch.

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The entire thread will have some quick pointers on options trading. These bullet points are based on experience and learning and even if you are completely new,will help you to build some perspective. So,lets go :

-When new,prefer trading monthly options over weekly options to reduce risk
-Set up your trades with greater than 50% Probability Of Profit
- Use implied volatility in your decision making process
-Book some trades at 50% of max profit i.e. locking of profit incase u are buyer

-Don’t adjust losing defined risk strategies. A lot of people get into the bad habit of averaging and run the risk of losing a lot
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In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n


It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

4/n

But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

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There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n
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Introduction to imbalance charts (orderflow trading):

A 🧵

(1/n)

Orderflow charts essentially show the real time buying and selling happening in the markets.

In below chart, you can see how market sell orders are shown to the bid side and market buy orders are shown to the ask side.

(2/n)


Using this, one can identify big buying and selling happening at various prices.

Imbalance charts takes this one step forward. How so? Read on to find out.

(3/n)

Imbalance charts shows buying and selling imbalances at various price points. How does it matter?

Imbalance here implies to what extent is buying more than selling and vice versa.

(4/n)

Why is that important? As a trader, if we know that buying at a particular level is x times more than selling or vice versa, it would help us understand the strength of supply or demand coming into the market.

(5/n)
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12 TRADING SETUPS used by professional traders:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll learn in this thread:

1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy

Let's dive in ↓

1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):

The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.

Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.

Sell directional credit spreads with capped


@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data

Don't trade till 9:45 Am.

Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.

Check combined premium and put a stop on individual


@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)

This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.

To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high

or Below yesterday's day's
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Listening to this Puran one gets automatically attached to Vishnu and Shiva and realize that there is no difference between them. Vyasji divided this book into four parts. It has eighteen thousand shlokas. This whole book is in the form of dialogue between Suutji and Maharishi's.

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Jig's Patel
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Thread on
"Intraday Banknifty Strangle based on OI data"

(System already shared, today just share few examples)
(1/n)

-Trade timing after 9:45

-Check Banknifty change in OI data at 9:45, and identify the highest OI built up in call side and put side

-We will sell both strikes with combined premium as SL on both legs.
(2/n)

28th June 2021

BN open-35440
At 9:45 trading at 35350
Highest OI in call side at 35500 CE and 35000 at put side
Strike selection 35500 CE- 35000 PE
(3/n)


29th June 2021

BN open-35323

At 9:45 trading at 35112

Highest OI in call side at 35300 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35300 CE (232) - 35000 PE (150) Combined premium 382 , Both legs SL 382
(4/n)


30th June 2021

BN open-35030

At 9:45 trading at 35002

Highest OI in call side at 35000 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35000 CE(176)- 35000 PE(213) Combined premium 389 , Both legs SL 389
(5/n)
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