BC SUBHADIP DADA BALANCE AMP TREND RATION STRATEGY

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Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16 3 years, 7 months ago 697 views

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Along with the levels, there is Trend Ratio.
Near 1 or below is bearish, near 2 or above is bullish
( this as per last day's closing).
If Trend Ratio is bullish, expect support at Balance or breakout above Upper level will mean rally will continue.

If Trend Ratio is bearish, look for break or Balance or lower levels .

On a bullish Trend Ratio if Balance breaks, expect all longs to be trapped . Can short with stop above upper breakout figure. And vice versa

Normally the Trend Ratios of both indices are in sync, a little bit of difference. But here BNF is bullish while Nifty is bearish. So, if playing bullish tomorrow concentrate on BNF, If playing bearish, concentrate on Nifty

Major Rule :
1. DO NOT play bearish is market above Balance
2. DO NOT play bullish is market below Balance

The Balance basically tells you which side is a bit trapped

As long as the market stays within the upper and lower levels, option sellers ( whether they have sold on friday or will sell tomorrow) are at an advantageous position and make money. Whichever side this level is broken, that side sellers will be trapped

This is how I will view the market tomorrow :

Nifty fut : Has closed on Friday below the Balance for Monday. So if Nifty opens a little below, will go short with a stop above Balance. Below lower levels will short more

BNF : Will look to jump in and buy if BNF crosses 38041. Else will wait for Balance to be checked, if there are signs of rebound, will go long with stop below Balance

Again, normally these levels are in sync. It's not often two indices show opposing views . So will trade a bit carefully tomorrow

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Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

I see a lot of traders following classical chart patterns . Being a pattern follower myself for some years , here is my advice to them as I feel some pointers will improve their accuracy . Again , this is not the only correct way but what I have learnt from my experiences

1. Volume confirmation is a must. Without the volume rules being fulfilled , there is no importance to the pattern

2. Understand where the pattern is taking place within the major price structure of the index/stock. An inverse head and shoulders bottom reversal occurs at market bottoms , not at market tops

3. If a pattern is valid, it will leap out at you from the computer screen . If it takes a lot of time for you to "see" the pattern , you are probably imagining things

4. Understand how the market players operate so that a pattern is created . Understand the psychological basis of market participants within the pattern . Best resource : Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee . You should read the book at least 10 times or more

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

Since lot of discussions on ITC, had a simple look at the chart. With each passing day, the probability of a large breakout increases. Watch the behaviour of MFI, but wait for prices to trade above the trendline with volumes

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Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

My presentation on Money Management was based on a lot of sources as I mentioned. For traders interested on those sources , here they are

#OptimalF
Portfolio Management Formulas: Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets by Ralph Vince

The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders by Ralph Vince

#SecureF

#FixedRatio

The Trading Game: Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions by Ryan Jones

https://t.co/U0c65EbEog.

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏

Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16

This question might have rose in your mind too, that why VIX was lower than yesterday despite the huge selloff today.
This is what I think happens . A thread.

Market is highly volatile but vix is down by 4%
— Jegathesan Durairaj (Jegan) (@itjegan) May 13, 2022

What is VIX ?
https://t.co/VOkAwGRsHL

What is IV ( implied volatility ) ?

Now my explanations. IV is simply demand and supply. IV is back calculated from option prices and not given by the BSM model. When demand for options ( by buyers) are high, IVs will be high. When supply of options ( by sellers) are high, IV will be low.

Now look at this chart. Nifty fut and VIX are plotted together ( red line is the VIX). Yesterday's massive breakdown forced traders to hedge their positions by buying puts ( could be cash holdings, could be future longs, could be sold puts). This excess demand spiked up IVs /VIX

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