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I want to add an addendum to this thread from the other day to show why publishing an n=1 is so bad. It's because I can likely identify and put a name to this student.
(I'm not going to do that here but I am going to show you how easy it is.)
To do that, let's talk about the IPEDS data set. IPEDS is a US database that contains a range of information about US universities, such as enrollment, test scores, graduation rates, etc.
One notable data table shows graduated students by major and ethnicity.
(FYI, here is the IPEDS data: https://t.co/K4OwsyLLsE It's an open database so you can explore at your leisure.)
Back to the "Completions" table which shows ethnicity by major. This happens to line up with the n=1 from the offending article which identified a student by their ethnicity and major.
Sorry, the n=1 was year in school and ethnicity but I've now used the IPEDS data to find out their major. Linking datasets on minority populations is very very powerful.
(I'm not going to do that here but I am going to show you how easy it is.)
I'm angry at everything right now, including the new the latest problematic article from C&RL.
— Dr. Kristin Briney (@KristinBriney) January 6, 2021
So I think it's time we talked about C&RL's history of publishing identifying information in articles.
(Yes, @LibSkrat I'm finally telling this story)https://t.co/JPCks3tohr
To do that, let's talk about the IPEDS data set. IPEDS is a US database that contains a range of information about US universities, such as enrollment, test scores, graduation rates, etc.
One notable data table shows graduated students by major and ethnicity.
(FYI, here is the IPEDS data: https://t.co/K4OwsyLLsE It's an open database so you can explore at your leisure.)
Back to the "Completions" table which shows ethnicity by major. This happens to line up with the n=1 from the offending article which identified a student by their ethnicity and major.
Sorry, the n=1 was year in school and ethnicity but I've now used the IPEDS data to find out their major. Linking datasets on minority populations is very very powerful.
1/ "Unbelievable: WHO warns of unreliability of PCR test" https://t.co/659Xk3WOBO
pcr-test/ 22.1.21 Auto translation quotes below
'Anyone who expressed doubts about whether the PCR test, co-developed in large part by Christian Drosten, can really provide evidence of infection..'
2/ ..'is virtually considered a heretic in Germany, or worse, a Corona denier. When Luthe, a non-party member of the Berlin parliament, saw doubts about the test's informative value in terms of the Infection Protection Act confirmed by a response from the Berlin Senate..'
3/ ..'in November 2020, I reported on it [https://t.co/RvCq02qib3]. The report was accompanied by a warning from Facebook that fact-checkers had found it to be false. In doing so, they proceed with argumentative shell games (as I described here)
4/ 'And now this! All the self-proclaimed "fact-finders" have to dress warmly. In a new "information note" [https://t.co/mMKpFQarXr], the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced something remarkable on Wednesday. I ask for your understanding if I now reproduce all the..'
5/ ..'technical terms in the original - but for the sake of accuracy it has to be. I'll try to explain them afterwards: "WHO diagnostic test guidelines for SARS-CoV-2 state that careful interpretation of weak positive results is required. The cycle threshold (Ct) required..'
pcr-test/ 22.1.21 Auto translation quotes below
'Anyone who expressed doubts about whether the PCR test, co-developed in large part by Christian Drosten, can really provide evidence of infection..'
2/ ..'is virtually considered a heretic in Germany, or worse, a Corona denier. When Luthe, a non-party member of the Berlin parliament, saw doubts about the test's informative value in terms of the Infection Protection Act confirmed by a response from the Berlin Senate..'
3/ ..'in November 2020, I reported on it [https://t.co/RvCq02qib3]. The report was accompanied by a warning from Facebook that fact-checkers had found it to be false. In doing so, they proceed with argumentative shell games (as I described here)
4/ 'And now this! All the self-proclaimed "fact-finders" have to dress warmly. In a new "information note" [https://t.co/mMKpFQarXr], the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced something remarkable on Wednesday. I ask for your understanding if I now reproduce all the..'
5/ ..'technical terms in the original - but for the sake of accuracy it has to be. I'll try to explain them afterwards: "WHO diagnostic test guidelines for SARS-CoV-2 state that careful interpretation of weak positive results is required. The cycle threshold (Ct) required..'
1/14
Excellent question!
"Risk/reward ratio" is a term used in investing, but it's rarely quantified like one would quantify a debt/assets ratio. Risk/reward ratio is usually used more intuitively.
2/14
Usually people will use all their knowledge to make guesstimates about an investment like:
- 20% chance to go bust
- 20% chance to break-even
- 40% chance to double
- 10% chance to 4x
- 10% chance to 10x
And then state "for me, this is good from a risk/reward standpoint".
3/14
That last statement will be different for each individual though. For some people the investment laid out above may be great from a risk/reward standpoint, because of the high expected ROI. For others, it may be terrible because of the 20% chance to go bust.
4/14
Investing is much more complex than just making money and maximizing returns, and investment strategies should differ from individual to individual. If this is news to you, I strongly suggest you read through the first section of this blog
5/14
The final section of the same blog post goes into depth on $TSLA call options, and how I go about evaluating them. There is even a subsection called "The Risk Reward of Call Options" that should answer a lot of your questions.
Excellent question!
"Risk/reward ratio" is a term used in investing, but it's rarely quantified like one would quantify a debt/assets ratio. Risk/reward ratio is usually used more intuitively.
@FrankPeelen I\u2019m curious what you think is a good risk/reward ratio and how do you generally calculate that to help inform your decision to buy options? Appreciate your insights!
— Dianne Francisco (@dfrancisco910) December 30, 2020
2/14
Usually people will use all their knowledge to make guesstimates about an investment like:
- 20% chance to go bust
- 20% chance to break-even
- 40% chance to double
- 10% chance to 4x
- 10% chance to 10x
And then state "for me, this is good from a risk/reward standpoint".
3/14
That last statement will be different for each individual though. For some people the investment laid out above may be great from a risk/reward standpoint, because of the high expected ROI. For others, it may be terrible because of the 20% chance to go bust.
4/14
Investing is much more complex than just making money and maximizing returns, and investment strategies should differ from individual to individual. If this is news to you, I strongly suggest you read through the first section of this blog
5/14
The final section of the same blog post goes into depth on $TSLA call options, and how I go about evaluating them. There is even a subsection called "The Risk Reward of Call Options" that should answer a lot of your questions.
Modellers believe that spreading out our limited supply of vaccine as single doses for 3 months will save up to 6000 lives. One concern though is whether single doses might lead to 'vaccine resistance' through virus mutation. (1)
If we assume that over the next 12 weeks 12-20 million people get one dose of a vaccine and are told or believe it gives 90% protection what % will actually go for a second jab? We might assume second dose coverage is at best 70%. (2)
That means between 4 and 6.7 million people might have fading protection. Will the risk of creating a vaccine resistant mutant in this group of people, which could spread rapidly to 7 billion people around the world, outweigh the benefits of 6000 deaths prevented. (3)
I was initially reassured by a paper sent to me by an eminent virologist. https://t.co/UyTQZ0CFsW (4)
Essentially vaccine resistance is rare compared with drug resistance, first because multiple mutations are needed unlike for drugs, and second because vaccines tend to keep pathogens from ever achieving large population sizes within hosts. (5)
If we assume that over the next 12 weeks 12-20 million people get one dose of a vaccine and are told or believe it gives 90% protection what % will actually go for a second jab? We might assume second dose coverage is at best 70%. (2)
That means between 4 and 6.7 million people might have fading protection. Will the risk of creating a vaccine resistant mutant in this group of people, which could spread rapidly to 7 billion people around the world, outweigh the benefits of 6000 deaths prevented. (3)
I was initially reassured by a paper sent to me by an eminent virologist. https://t.co/UyTQZ0CFsW (4)
Essentially vaccine resistance is rare compared with drug resistance, first because multiple mutations are needed unlike for drugs, and second because vaccines tend to keep pathogens from ever achieving large population sizes within hosts. (5)