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I want to add an addendum to this thread from the other day to show why publishing an n=1 is so bad. It's because I can likely identify and put a name to this student.

(I'm not going to do that here but I am going to show you how easy it is.)


To do that, let's talk about the IPEDS data set. IPEDS is a US database that contains a range of information about US universities, such as enrollment, test scores, graduation rates, etc.

One notable data table shows graduated students by major and ethnicity.

(FYI, here is the IPEDS data: https://t.co/K4OwsyLLsE It's an open database so you can explore at your leisure.)

Back to the "Completions" table which shows ethnicity by major. This happens to line up with the n=1 from the offending article which identified a student by their ethnicity and major.

Sorry, the n=1 was year in school and ethnicity but I've now used the IPEDS data to find out their major. Linking datasets on minority populations is very very powerful.
1/ "Unbelievable: WHO warns of unreliability of PCR test" https://t.co/659Xk3WOBO
pcr-test/ 22.1.21 Auto translation quotes below
'Anyone who expressed doubts about whether the PCR test, co-developed in large part by Christian Drosten, can really provide evidence of infection..'

2/ ..'is virtually considered a heretic in Germany, or worse, a Corona denier. When Luthe, a non-party member of the Berlin parliament, saw doubts about the test's informative value in terms of the Infection Protection Act confirmed by a response from the Berlin Senate..'

3/ ..'in November 2020, I reported on it [
https://t.co/RvCq02qib3]. The report was accompanied by a warning from Facebook that fact-checkers had found it to be false. In doing so, they proceed with argumentative shell games (as I described here)

4/ 'And now this! All the self-proclaimed "fact-finders" have to dress warmly. In a new "information note" [https://t.co/mMKpFQarXr], the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced something remarkable on Wednesday. I ask for your understanding if I now reproduce all the..'

5/ ..'technical terms in the original - but for the sake of accuracy it has to be. I'll try to explain them afterwards: "WHO diagnostic test guidelines for SARS-CoV-2 state that careful interpretation of weak positive results is required. The cycle threshold (Ct) required..'
1/14

Excellent question!

"Risk/reward ratio" is a term used in investing, but it's rarely quantified like one would quantify a debt/assets ratio. Risk/reward ratio is usually used more intuitively.


2/14

Usually people will use all their knowledge to make guesstimates about an investment like:

- 20% chance to go bust
- 20% chance to break-even
- 40% chance to double
- 10% chance to 4x
- 10% chance to 10x

And then state "for me, this is good from a risk/reward standpoint".

3/14

That last statement will be different for each individual though. For some people the investment laid out above may be great from a risk/reward standpoint, because of the high expected ROI. For others, it may be terrible because of the 20% chance to go bust.

4/14

Investing is much more complex than just making money and maximizing returns, and investment strategies should differ from individual to individual. If this is news to you, I strongly suggest you read through the first section of this blog

5/14

The final section of the same blog post goes into depth on $TSLA call options, and how I go about evaluating them. There is even a subsection called "The Risk Reward of Call Options" that should answer a lot of your questions.