The focal S:N501 build is now updated with data from 13 Jan!

There are a total of 247 non-UK & non-South African sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2.

I'll do an additional thread later on, covering S:E484 & the 'Ohio variants'.

1/18

https://t.co/3bdttjKVl4

There are 244 new sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) from Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, India, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain & USA, as well sequences as from Ecuador and Greece for the first time.

2/18
Greece has 3 new sequences in 501Y.V1 for the first time. They indicate 2 separate introductions.

Ecuador has 2 sequences for the first time. They also indicate 2 separate introductions.

3/18
The USA has 61 new sequences (orange), from Florida, Minnesota, California, Pennsylvania, & New York.

A few of these represent separate introductions. Others form distinct clusters that may indicate ongoing local transmission.

4/18
Israel has 35 new sequences (orange). Some of these show separate introductions, but many link with older sequences, indicating ongoing local transmission.

5/18
The Netherlands has 34 new sequences (orange). A few of these represent separate introductions, but most form a large cluster with older sequences from the Netherlands, indicating ongoing local transmission.

6/18
Portugal has 31 new sequences (orange). Though hard to see in the zoomed-out view, most of these represent separate introductions. There is one case where 2 new seqs are identical to an older one, but this could be a common exposure source.

7/18
Denmark has 20 new sequences (orange). A few of these indicate separate introductions, but must cluster with older sequences in smaller groups or in the very large Danish group previously identified, indicating local transmission.

8/18
Norway has 14 new sequences (orange). Most indicate separate introductions, but a few are identical to or related to an older sequence, which may indicate local transmission.

9/18
Spain has 11 new sequences (orange). All of these indicate separate introductions, though some new sequences link together to form tight clusters. This could indicate local transmission or a common source.

10/18
New Zealand has 10 new sequences (orange). All represent separate introductions, though some new sequences are linked together.

11/18
Singapore has 6 new sequences (orange). Though hard to see in zoomed-out view, most of these indicate separate introductions.

12/18
Italy has 6 new sequences (orange). It's a bit hard to see in the zoomed-out view, but none of these link directly with older samples, indicating separate introductions - though 2 new seqs link together.

13/18
Germany has 4 new sequences (orange). Though hard to see in the zoomed-out view, these all represent separate introductions.

14/18
Australia also has 4 new sequences (orange), including the first from Western Australia. These indicate separate introductions, though 2 of the new sequences are identical (marked in red).

15/18
India has 2 new sequences (orange, one hidden behind the green - pic 1). One is a separate introduction, the other links with a previous sequence (pic 2).

Belgium has 1 new sequence, which links 1 mutation away from a previous sequence (pic 3).

16/18
There are 3 new non-South African sequences in 501Y.V2, from Germany for the first time. They are identical, which may indicate a common exposure.

17/18
The updated country plots will go up soon, and I'll add another thread later on S:E484 & the 'Ohio variants'.

18/18
The updated country plots are now up. As always, be careful interpreting plots as many countries are selectively sequencing S:N501 & S-drop outs (which often increases S:N439), so frequencies are often not representative!

19/18

https://t.co/c7wlQOufTQ

More from Dr Emma Hodcroft

Each day brings new challenges, but here's an update to the dedicated S.N501 build, using data from 6 Jan 2021 to keep you going.

There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) & 7 new non-South-African sequences in 501Y.V2.

1/14

https://t.co/kT1gFsSZn0


There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 from the Netherlands, Italy, Hong Kong, Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Brazil, and the first sequence from 501Y.V1 in Oman.

https://t.co/XA8VR8HiEq

2/14


Oman has their first sequence which falls into 501Y.V1:

3/14


Finland has 12 new sequences (orange), which mostly represent separate introductions. Zooming in (divergence view), we can see 3 of the new sequences are identical (red), which may indicate the cases are connected.

4/14


Sweden has 8 new sequences (orange), which indicate separate introductions.

5/14

More from Society

global health policy in 2020 has centered around NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) like distancing, masks, school closures

these have been sold as a way to stop infection as though this were science.

this was never true and that fact was known and knowable.

let's look.


above is the plot of social restriction and NPI vs total death per million. there is 0 R2. this means that the variables play no role in explaining one another.

we can see this same relationship between NPI and all cause deaths.

this is devastating to the case for NPI.


clearly, correlation is not proof of causality, but a total lack of correlation IS proof that there was no material causality.

barring massive and implausible coincidence, it's essentially impossible to cause something and not correlate to it, especially 51 times.

this would seem to pose some very serious questions for those claiming that lockdowns work, those basing policy upon them, and those claiming this is the side of science.

there is no science here nor any data. this is the febrile imaginings of discredited modelers.

this has been clear and obvious from all over the world since the beginning and had been proven so clearly by may that it's hard to imagine anyone who is actually conversant with the data still believing in these responses.

everyone got the same R
1/ A thread of comments & observations about the death of the cackling vampire Rush Limbaugh.

My first observations in the main thread are here, but this offshoot is needed because there's been so many wise & witty things I've


2/ First, re: those who in their wayward moral obtuseness feel we "can't speak ill of the dead." I've said that this is what abuse enablers say, but I hear that some religious traditions preach this. Oy.
So there's this: https://t.co/7Ky4RA3nkZ &


3/ Drucker is another great wit, and this carries the proper mood


4/ There's definitely a Jewish Tradition angle for how to treat evil people who die: the only respect is to justice, right & wrong, and above all compassion's existence necessitates condemning cruelty


5/ We're coming up on #Purim, and that's all about how to remember evil. There may be a reason, then, that I share the attitude of many other people committed to righting

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This is NONSENSE. The people who take photos with their books on instagram are known to be voracious readers who graciously take time to review books and recommend them to their followers. Part of their medium is to take elaborate, beautiful photos of books. Die mad, Guardian.


THEY DO READ THEM, YOU JUDGY, RACOON-PICKED TRASH BIN


If you come for Bookstagram, i will fight you.

In appreciation, here are some of my favourite bookstagrams of my books: (photos by lit_nerd37, mybookacademy, bookswrotemystory, and scorpio_books)