These are the books i talked about

1
https://t.co/fST4GxCrE2
2
https://t.co/8tTeRlJFHh
3
https://t.co/mmSbaqjBcG
4
https://t.co/6olb6LYh89
5
https://t.co/yEWYDoCM4e
6
https://t.co/OfuAZ98jKT

Thread on Importance of Mean Reversion

U must have remember the charts of auto sector breakout on last monday,potentially poised to be the next leader in the rally.
But since then it just fell bad and deep
Breaking the breakout bar low

1/7

The seemingly convincing breakout retest structure in abv daily chart takes a cocpletely different picture in u open the chart in weekly TF

shooting start at the resistance line of a triangle and at a major supply zone

2/7

Major stocks such as heromoto, maruti, eichermot and babajauto are already trading below the breakout level it established on monday when sector broke out

3/7

This poses a serious question on the risks associated with breakout.

Popularity behind the breakout is the fact that it doesnt need any skills to spot it, even a 90% blind man can spot it in any chart, because the price just sticks out from the rest by a very big margin

4/7

But think about a completely diffferent method where the price makes a clean move and the risks assicated with it is cubstantially less.

Price available so cheap and at support

5/7

On a day which gives huge gap at day open, mean reversion strategies works better than trend following/momentum strategies.

Those who are good at pullback trading can easily adapt to reversion and take advantage of current market conditions

This is in response to the question by @unseenvalue

If I had to buy 1 stock today, anywhere in the world, no avg. up or down, 5 year holding period (I will make that as 10 year for thesis to play out)

Since I track mainly Indian equities, restricting the choice to this space

Few points to look for
1. Strong macro tailwind rather than headwind, huge growth runway for company/segment. It can't be in a niche space & demand must not be easily substitutable
2. Strong Biz Model, high growth curve (15%+ over the period), strong ROE profile (hurdle rate 20%)

3. Low or no leverage, efficient capital allocation, (read minimal or zero fresh dilution requirements), strong cash flows and correspondingly high dividend payout ratios (consistent dividend history) and finally strong moat and with limited regulatory involvement / no reg issues

4. Promoter quality and intention must be beyond reproach, proven management with skin in the game
5. Capability to manage disruption, and if possible to even profit from it. If you can't be disrupted easily, you will eventually adapt your game to gain scale

6. There must be a possibility of non-linear growth if the scale-up hypothesis gets proven right. It's like an FD with low fixed return plus significant upside optionality. Multiple revenue streams / margin levers / IP that can provide non linearity in growth

Top 4 set up I love to follow.

Buy all time high
Sell all time low

Buy 52 week high
Sell 52 week low

Buy 50 days high
Sell 50 days low

Buy above ST 10.2 (MR trade where DC 50 low & high is 10 ATR or more)
Sell below ST 10.2( MR trade for long unwind or shock therapy apply)

A lot of websites provide you with data for trading.

However, I liked the free website of Icici Direct the most.

Here is a breakdown of what it can do: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Advantages:

1. Quantitative Analysis in one place
2. Easy to find stocks where action taking place
3. Find the exact price levels at which OI is being added.

You can check out this free website by clicking on this

Where is the action taking place?

For eg, Nifty Heatmap Can easily scan for:

- Long Build up = Price Up and OI up
- Long Unwinding = Price Down and OI down
- Short Buildup = Price Down and OI up
- Short Covering = Price Up and OI down

Price levels of OI being added:

• Check 15 mins Built-up in any stock
• Can find Intraday Bullish and bearish trend
• Eg of IBUL who was down 5% on Friday. Short Built-up had started in the morning itself.
• Shows the quantities which are being traded in those intervals.

Time Intervals:

• There are 25, time intervals available every day.

• If a stock has to go up or down a lot it will be heavily dominated in these time intervals.

• IBUL had 10 times short built up on Friday. -5.79 %

• ITC had 14 long built-ups on Friday. +2.6%.

Moving average envelop using #mycomboscans of @mystockedge

I've used Microsoft Excel for 20 years, and these 20 tips & functions will make you an expert and increase your productivity 100X📊

Don't ever use Excel again without knowing these 20 tips & functions:

Here are 20 MUST KNOW Microsoft Excel tips & functions (with pictures & examples of each below):

(1) Wildcards
(2) Duplicate
(3) Remove Duplicates
(4)Transpose
(5) Filter
(6) Conditional Formatting
(7) Sparklines
(8) Pivot Tables
(9) Auto-fill
(10) TRIM

11-20:

(11) XLOOKUP
(12) IF
(13) SUMIF
(14) SUMIFS
(15) COUNTIF
(16) COUNTIFS
(17) UPPER, LOWER, PROPER
(18) CONVERT
(19) Stock Market data
(20) Geography / Maps

Let's discuss each in detail (with pictures & examples):

(1) Wildcards

A wildcard is a special character that allow you to perform partial matches on text in your Excel formulas.

Excel has three wildcards: an asterisk "*", question mark "?", and "~"

(2) Duplicate

Duplicate the data from the cell above.

Ctrl + D fills and overwrites a cell with the contents of the cell above it