We have a natural tendency to favour the inside view—our own independent solution to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.
To make better decisions, we should favour the outside view—one that incorporates the best available data.
Most people suck at decision-making.
Let's change that.
Here are 15 of the best decision-making mental models I've found 🧵
We have a natural tendency to favour the inside view—our own independent solution to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.
To make better decisions, we should favour the outside view—one that incorporates the best available data.
Describes the thinking process we go through—often subconsciously—to get from a fact to a decision or action.
To make better decisions, we should move slowly and deliberately from the bottom of the ladder to the top of the ladder.
h/t (image) - @amrancz
The more confidence you have in the importance of a problem and your understanding of its solution, the more you should focus on quality.
However, if you need to learn more, move fast and break things.
h/t - @BrandonMChu
The antidote to confirmation bias.
It involves forcing yourself to view a decision from the opposite viewpoint or finding people who disagree with you.
It forces you to create a more compelling argument.
Don't take my word for it:
Involves assuming that your decision has failed and working backwards to determine what the potential causes were.
This process has multiple benefits:
• Removes overconfidence and irrational optimism
• Reveals blind spots
• Simplifies thinking
h/t @KleInsight
Regardless of success or failure, this can be used to drive continuous improvement in your decision-making.
Here, you ask:
• What went well?
• What went poorly?
• What can be improved next time?
With the answers, future decisions will be better informed.
These are tree-like graphs with the branches showing results of possible choices for a given decision or action.
The decision tree allows options to be compared against each other, for both risk and return.
They're particularly helpful for financial decisions.
Information overload is when you have too much information at hand.
This causes decisions to take too long.
It also leads to 'analysis paralysis' where your decision-making suffers paralysis because you over-analyze the body of information available.
It's the paradox of choice: having too many good options slows us down because the best one isn't clear.
Remember: by not making a choice, you are actually making a choice: the status quo.
A model to cope with this: reversible vs. irreversible decisions.
Irreversible decisions are 'one-way doors.'
They must be made slowly and deliberately.
Reversible decisions are 'two-way doors.'
These decisions can and should be made quickly.
https://t.co/IEwHegYCyB
The @JeffBezos Reversible Vs. Irreversible Decisions Framework is a powerful mental model for unlocking growth in your career, business, relationships, or life.
— Alex Brogan \U0001f6a2 (@_alexbrogan) May 4, 2022
A short thread on what it is and how it can improve your life: pic.twitter.com/GjgikKWTHm
If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.
Should I stay in tonight or should I go and meet this interesting stranger?
Choose to increase your surface area of luck when you have the choice.
Your 80-year-old self helps you makes decisions you won't regret when you're old.
Your 10-year-old self reminds you to stay foolish and have some fun along the way.
h/t - @SahilBloom
A concept from tennis, 'unforced error' is a metaphor for any situation where an avoidable mistake is made.
The first goal of decision-making should always be to minimize unforced errors.
How?
Sound judgement and decision making techniques.
The biggest mistake when judging performance is only looking at the outcome.
Instead, we should focus on the process used.
It's possible to win with a bad decision making process (luck) or lose with a good process.
What's important is knowing the 'Why.'
We're all guilty of making decisions without thinking about long term consequences.
To avoid this, ask:
• How will I feel about this 10 minutes from now?
• 10 months from now?
• 10 years from now?
This helps clarify the decision that results in a win/win/win.
Tell me, what would you add?
If you enjoyed this thread:
1. Follow me @_alexbrogan for more mental models, concepts, and frameworks
2. RT the tweet below to share this with others who might enjoy it :) https://t.co/DUuiG7bnyY
Most people suck at decision-making.
— Alex Brogan \U0001f6a2 (@_alexbrogan) May 7, 2022
Let's change that.
Here are 15 of the best decision-making mental models I've found \U0001f9f5
More from Alex Brogan 🚢
Most people have only just scratched the surface of the internet.
But beneath the shallow waters there’s pure gold.
Here are 10 of the most useful websites in existence:
https://t.co/YstnCuKJ4P
The best educational resources on the internet. All in one place. Period.
https://t.co/2HeKs2h8h8
A search engine that uses AI to find answers to your questions directly from scientific research.
https://t.co/h0ucAFUjAo
E-sign an unlimited number of documents for free in under 30 seconds.
Simply upload, sign, and send—no account required.
https://t.co/NpiPdNgA7K
A infographic of 200+ of the most important cognitive biases from Wikipedia.
Side: @buster has one of the best personal websites I’ve ever seen.
But beneath the shallow waters there’s pure gold.
Here are 10 of the most useful websites in existence:
https://t.co/YstnCuKJ4P
The best educational resources on the internet. All in one place. Period.
https://t.co/2HeKs2h8h8
A search engine that uses AI to find answers to your questions directly from scientific research.
https://t.co/h0ucAFUjAo
E-sign an unlimited number of documents for free in under 30 seconds.
Simply upload, sign, and send—no account required.
https://t.co/NpiPdNgA7K
A infographic of 200+ of the most important cognitive biases from Wikipedia.
Side: @buster has one of the best personal websites I’ve ever seen.
10 insanely useful websites you’ll be kicking yourself you didn’t know (until now):
#1: https://t.co/0TQkimtKgY
No more expensive photo editors.
Welcome to a free online photo editor in your browser.
What? Yes, that’s right.
• No popups
• No ads
• No cookies
• No account to create
• 100% free
Just select a photo and get going!
#2: https://t.co/mfr6V6kztv
Tame the firehose of information with one daily email that curates all your favourite sources and links in one place.
You’ll get:
• Emails
• Twitter Accounts
• YouTube Channels
Staying on top of good information has never been easier.
#3: https://t.co/rjquIV2eXs
Looking to meet like-minded people but don’t know where to start?
Welcome to The Hive Index: A directory of online communities.
Find communities organized by topics, across all major platforms:
• Reddit
• Discord
• Slack
• Facebook
#4: https://t.co/nYfOIbZzr0
Read the entire internet on a single page.
Upstract has headlines and links to the most popular news sites in the world:
• Reddit
• Reuters
• NY Times
• YouTube
• Vice
• Buzzfeed
Never miss a beat.
#1: https://t.co/0TQkimtKgY
No more expensive photo editors.
Welcome to a free online photo editor in your browser.
What? Yes, that’s right.
• No popups
• No ads
• No cookies
• No account to create
• 100% free
Just select a photo and get going!
#2: https://t.co/mfr6V6kztv
Tame the firehose of information with one daily email that curates all your favourite sources and links in one place.
You’ll get:
• Emails
• Twitter Accounts
• YouTube Channels
Staying on top of good information has never been easier.
#3: https://t.co/rjquIV2eXs
Looking to meet like-minded people but don’t know where to start?
Welcome to The Hive Index: A directory of online communities.
Find communities organized by topics, across all major platforms:
• Discord
• Slack
#4: https://t.co/nYfOIbZzr0
Read the entire internet on a single page.
Upstract has headlines and links to the most popular news sites in the world:
• Reuters
• NY Times
• YouTube
• Vice
• Buzzfeed
Never miss a beat.
More from Principles
How to find (and operate in) your Zone of Genius:
A few weeks ago, I shared a thread—How to Win (without talent or luck)—that got a lot of attention.
One of the most popular insights I shared was the idea of operating in your Zone of Genius.
But I got a lot of questions about how to practically achieve that...
Your Zone of Genius is where your interests, passions and skills align.
Operating in it means you stop playing *their* games and start playing *yours*.
This thread shares my framework—built through personal struggle—for finding and operating in your Zone of Genius:
First, let's get one thing straight.
Everyone has a Zone of Genius.
"Genius" here is a relative term, not an absolute.
It's not about being top 1% at something—it's about the unique space where your relative strengths are accentuated (and relative weaknesses masked).
Furthermore, everyone’s Zone of Genius is different and unique to them as an individual.
The goal of a founder, startup, or organization, therefore, is to build a team with complementary—not conflicting—Zones of Genius.
This is where 1+1=3!
A few weeks ago, I shared a thread—How to Win (without talent or luck)—that got a lot of attention.
One of the most popular insights I shared was the idea of operating in your Zone of Genius.
But I got a lot of questions about how to practically achieve that...
How to Win (without talent or luck):
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) October 16, 2021
Your Zone of Genius is where your interests, passions and skills align.
Operating in it means you stop playing *their* games and start playing *yours*.
This thread shares my framework—built through personal struggle—for finding and operating in your Zone of Genius:
First, let's get one thing straight.
Everyone has a Zone of Genius.
"Genius" here is a relative term, not an absolute.
It's not about being top 1% at something—it's about the unique space where your relative strengths are accentuated (and relative weaknesses masked).
Furthermore, everyone’s Zone of Genius is different and unique to them as an individual.
The goal of a founder, startup, or organization, therefore, is to build a team with complementary—not conflicting—Zones of Genius.
This is where 1+1=3!
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👏
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Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W
Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela
The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.
One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.
Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"
Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W
Prabhu says i reside in the heart of my bhakt.
— Right Singh (@rightwingchora) December 21, 2020
Guess the event. pic.twitter.com/yFUmbfe5KL
Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela
The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.
One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.
Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"
