Categories Politics
-lots of paperwork. Filling it in triggers delays.
-trained customs staff. We're short by 50k. That'll cause delays.
- IT systems. Several haven't launched yet. More delays.
This is why there'll be shortages @jbhearn. /1
If you are an EU supporter or a U.K. Remainer then the best thing to do will be to start a rumour, preferably by an expert, that No Deal will lead to food shortages and panic buying. This will ensure it happens and then you can say \u201ctold you so\u201d you silly Brexiteers.
— Professor John Hearn (@jbhearn) December 14, 2020
If you're exporting to EU, in the case of food products (dead or alive) you also need an official veterinarian (that's a thing) working with a certification support officer to deal with the sanitary and phytosanitory checks to generate a European Health Certificate /2
That EHC is then submitted at a border control post and also on the EU import control system. Only then can the truck travel into the EU. /3
Thing is, the importer in the EU will have to input *LOTS* of information into the EU's trade control and expert system (not the same as as the EU import control system) because it's arriving from outside the EU. /4
Alternatively the EU importer can skip all of the admin, fees and taxes triggered by importing from the UK by instead sourcing from a EU based company. That is why brexit will be an economic calamity for the UK; the operational reality is going to trump the economic theory. /5
I feel like (when it comes to Tech) we have people making rules & certifications that can neither hear, nor see... evil.
Remember this as we call for election “Audits”.
Now, if what you are suggesting is they should do a full audit of election software + machine security, that could be worthwhile.
— Double-Wide Dreaming\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f (@2xwide_dreaming) November 7, 2020
But these software packages have *never* been reviewed/oversight!
these are all things republicans really said
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) October 29, 2020
democrats forced lenders to crash the housing market. george soros manipulated the markets too. this led to obama. obama used hypnosis to convince people to vote for him.
i have a lot of love for the obama mass hypnosis storyline.
im not making this shit up https://t.co/z9pBNWdGpn
goddamn this is the good stuff
ah yessssssssssssssssssssssss
When survey researchers hear about "Shy Trump" voters, we hear it as measurement error, and there's good evidence that it's vanishingly small. But I think the broader public might also be including non-response error as part of how they understand that term
As we unpack the sources of survey error, it's worth keeping our eye on some patterns. For instance, this comparison of survey averages to projected results by @gelliottmorris shows a correlation between 2016 and 2020, but also an intercept shift
Putting out some hypotheses now that can be tested as vote counts get finalized (still not done counting!) and pollsters look back at their own data
1) Everything @davidshor says here about trust and non-response: https://t.co/aXYZMc5QO5
It's tricky to test for, because surveys aren't asking about trust and we don't have great national benchmarks either. That said ...
A SINGLE VERIFIED FACT
— David Baker Fight Like A Flynn (@IWasHrren) November 26, 2020
That proves VOTER FRAUD
in GEORGIA, without a doubt.
Trump was ahead. The vote counting was stopped-
BECAUSE A WATER PIPE BURST
Then Biden caught up
The water pipe
DID NOT BURST \U0001f448FACT
The Definitive Case Proving Donald Trump Won https://t.co/ZZZWChwKeP
Takes vote dumps in each state & plots ratios of Biden votes to Trump. Then draws three lines showing that if a data plot is above the line then it is in either the 95th percentile, 99th percentile, or 99.5th percentile. IOW, only one out of every two-hundred points are above it.
The study takes into account that large ballot dumps which heavily favor a candidate make sense, if there are also smaller ones which favor the candidate more. Seems logical. Larger data dumps should be smoother than smaller data dumps.
All states except MI/WI/GA are blue. Notice anything? Notice how the controversial and much needed dumps for Biden that happened in the wee hours of the morning in crucial states are the most unlikely of all data dumps?
Might say these were mail in ballots that were expected to heavily favor Biden. Why don't we see this in other states that weren't absolutely crucial to Biden's victory coming down the stretch? Why are these three states the most extreme? Why not heavy blue areas like NYC or SF?