NEW: European Commission president @vonderleyen: As things stand I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not, but I can tell you there is a path to an agreement now. The path may be very narrow but it is there.

2/ VDL - it is therefore our responsibility to continue trying.
3/ Commission president says the "good news" is we have found a way forward on most issues, but this is now a case of being "so close and yet being so far away from each other."
4/ VDL - level playing field: our aim is simply fair competition on our own market.

Says the "architecture" of a level playing field provision rests on two pillars: state aid and standards
5/ On state aid we have made progress based on common princples, guarantees of domestic enforcement, the possibility to autonomously remedy the situation where needed [ie, either side can take action if distortions of trade etc]
6/ On standards: "we have agreed a strong mechanism of non-regression, that's a big step forward, this to ensure our common, high labour, social and environmental standards will not be undercut."
7/ Diffulties remain on how to really future proof fair competition, but I'm glad to report that issues linked to governance are largely being resolved.
8/ VDL says discussion on fisheries "very difficult"

"We do not question the UK's sovereignty in its own waters, but we ask for predictability and stability for our fishermen and our fisherwomen."
9/ "In all honesty it sometimes feels that we will not be able to resolve this question, but we must continue to try and find a solution, and it is the only responsible and right course of action"
10/ VDL: the next days are going to be decisive. I know I have said this before and I know deadlines have been missed time and again. The clock puts us all in a very difficult situation, not least this parliament and its right to exercise democratic scrutiny and ratification.
11/ "That is why I want to sincerely thank you for your support and your understanding and I know that if we do get there I can count on you to ensure a good outcome."
12/ [VDL here clearly appealing to the EP to show flexibility in the coming days, ie if time runs out for the normal ratification procedures. She is in an awkward position having made a political commitment to MEPs that they wd not be asked to accept provisional application]

More from Tony Connelly

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This idea - that elections should translate into policy - is not wrong at all. But political science can help explain why it's not working this way. There are three main explanations: 1. mandates are constructed, not automatic, 2. party asymmetry, 3. partisan conpetition 1/


First, party/policy mandates from elections are far from self-executing in our system. Work on mandates from Dahl to Ellis and Kirk on the history of the mandate to mine on its role in post-Nixon politics, to Peterson Grossback and Stimson all emphasize that this link is... 2/

Created deliberately and isn't always persuasive. Others have to convinced that the election meant a particular thing for it to work in a legislative context. I theorized in the immediate period of after the 2020 election that this was part of why Repubs signed on to ...3/

Trump's demonstrably false fraud nonsense - it derailed an emerging mandate news cycle. Winners of elections get what they get - institutional control - but can't expect much beyond that unless the perception of an election mandate takes hold. And it didn't. 4/

Let's turn to the legislation element of this. There's just an asymmetry in terms of passing a relief bill. Republicans are presumably less motivated to get some kind of deal passed. Democrats are more likely to want to do *something.* 5/

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I'm going to do two history threads on Ethiopia, one on its ancient history, one on its modern story (1800 to today). 🇪🇹

I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):


The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹


Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹


References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹
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