Difference between wealth and money.

(a short 🧵 thread)

Here’s me trying to make sense of the unprecedented 2020 bull rally of stock markets.

(A thread)

1/ The simple answer to why stock markets are up is always that there’s more demand for stocks than supply.

So the real question is: why is there more demand for stocks?

2/ Actually, what’s happening is what should happen.

Central banks across the world, especially the fed in the US, are providing cheap liquidity across the board to institutions.

With interest rates falling to 0% and below, bonds are no longer attractive.

3/ The central banks are injecting this extra liquidity to stimulate economic activity.

They’ve made risk-free investments such as bonds so unattractive that the only place for money to go is towards relatively risky investments which are stocks.

4/ More than anything else, what central banks want is inflation.

They want things to become pricey so wages grow, profits grow and people’s perception of recession goes away because you’re getting more money than last year.

We may be alone in the 🌌 ENTIRE UNIVERSE.

(a thread on this bold conjecture)

🎉 It's also my 1st podcast episode https://t.co/7u2FskrhHi

1/ For my inaugural podcast episode, I interviewed @anderssandberg who is a senior research fellow at the @fhioxford.

I highly recommend listening to the entire episode. It's full of gems and insights.

But if you want key ideas, keep reading this

2/ Before we get to that, here's what we talk about in the hour-long conversation.

3/ Both history and science fiction shows us how the world can be dramatically different than what it is today.

4/ But exponential curves (like Moore's law) make it hard to predict the future because early on they look like linear

You can find a lot about a company's undisclosed strategy by simply looking at what positions it is hiring for.

Sugar was once promoted in newspaper ads as a healthy snack that helps save calories and prevents obesity.

Oh, how the tables turn.

1/ Here are my notes from @robertwrighter's book - Nonzero: the logic of human destiny. I enjoyed the book very much.

The basic premise of the book is that history has a direction which favors co-operation and non-zero sum games, and that causes an increase in complexity.

2/ Starting from the first replicating molecule which co-operated with an outer layer to form first proto-cell, evolutionary and cultural history is full of examples where two entities come together to survive and progress a lot more than they would have done individually.

3/ This co-operative entity fares much better than two individual entities because of specialization. If two entities are in the same boat - that they win together or lose together - then trust is implicit.

4/ In a non-zero sum game, trust causes entities to focus on what they do best.

For example, eukaryotic cells - the ones animals and plants have - emerged when two proto-cells merged, and one took the role of energy generator (mitochondria), the other specialized in protection.

5/ Some scientists believe that even nucleus in a cell is a result of an early cell merging with another cell.

So M&A is not a recent phenomena, entities have been merging because of common interests ever since life started.

@48_quotes Well said.

I highly recommend the book "How to Win Friends and Influence People" -Dale Carnegie.

Even if you're not an avid reader, this book is a must.

The less you've expectation from others, the more you would receive respect in the relationships.

The fate of those who do not make others dependent on them:

Sooner or later someone comes along who can do the job as well as they can — someone younger, fresher, less expensive, less threatening.

The Internet rewards unique people.

Find your unique combination of skills, interests, and personality traits.

I call this a Personal Monopoly.

Become the only person in the world who does what you do.

Then, tell the world by sharing your knowledge.

Thanks to @Calalouf for her beautiful drawings.

As you build your Personal Monopoly, don’t just focus on yourself.

Focus on what the world wants too.

Think like an investor.

Find a small and growing market that only a few people write about. Then, learn everything you can about it, and share the best of what you learn.

A Personal Monopoly is a unique intersection of skills, knowledge, and personality that nobody else can compete with.

Personal monopolies aren't found — they're made.

Global markets increase the upside of having a Personal Monopoly, but also make it harder to create one.

The process of building a Personal Monopoly is the process of becoming yourself.

The sweet spot is finding an idea that looks specific to others, but still diverse enough to express the many shades of who you are, where you excel, and what you want to achieve.

To some people the notion of consciously playing power games — no matter how indirect — seems evil, asocial, a relic of the past.

They believe they can opt out of the game by behaving in ways that have nothing to do with power.