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Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju 5 years ago 1244 views

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Excellent article on Investor psychology & Market cycles based on Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle".

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

My fav pts 👇

continued...

Excellent pts 👇

✔️Mania and risk
"The combination of feedback loops and irrational exuberance, where newfound expectations and enthusiasm, encourages investors to bid up and rationalize extraordinary growth in asset prices.

By contrast, during periods of fear and pessimism, many face difficulties with identifying potential future value beyond the immediate-term.

An understanding of where attitudes to risk sits within the current investor psychology cycle can be a useful knowledge advantage.

Markets may misprice assets on a risk-adjusted basis as society swings along the pendulum of psychology.

Marks believes that the biggest source of investment risk is when investors believe that there are no risks at all.

✔️Contrarianism
It is helpful to consider the extent to which optimism or pessimism is incorporated into current asset prices. Skepticism is needed when mass optimism or pessimism is in excess. Contrarianism at the right moments is an important ingredient for successful investing

The rational, analytical and unemotional investor that finds balance between defensiveness and aggressiveness, particularly during periods of mania, is more likely to find success."

My 2 cents - For individual investors, it's a futile effort to predict the Macro but there's a lot we can glean from what is already happening in the Mkts, and how we can posture our Portfolio for offense/defense (on the edges), especially when there's excessive fear/froth in Mkt

Inability to predict the Macro shouldn't stop us from learning more about Business, Credit & Economic cycles and being aware that they can affect Markets in both directions, and impacting the discount/premiums to the Valuations of Companies (far away from their intrinsic values).

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Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

Excellent resource for Individual investors who want to learn about Accounting and Financial Statements.📊

The concepts are really well explained in a simple, understandable manner for beginners.

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

Content available 👇

Some of my fav sections.

1⃣ The Financial

2⃣ Fundamental Accounting

3⃣ Financial Ratio

Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

Excellent list of "Investing Lessons". Very relevant and useful stuff for individual investors. h/t @FMUndercover

The List 👇

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Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

Excellent list of "Investing Don'ts" by @NovelInvestor👏 Some solid advice for long-term investors in individual

The List

1⃣ Do not make hasty, emotional decisions about buying and selling stocks.

2⃣ If you are convinced that a company has dynamic growth prospects, do not sell it because it looks temporarily too high.

3⃣ Do not fall in love with stocks to the point where you can no longer be objective in your appraisal of them…

4⃣ Do not concern yourself as much with the market in general as with the outlook for individual stocks…

5⃣ Forget about stock market “tips.”

6⃣ Remember that stocks always look worst at the bottom of a bear mkt (when an air of gloom prevails) and always look best at the top of a Bull mkt (when everybody is optimistic).

7⃣Remember that you’ll seldom if ever buy stocks right at the bottom or sell them right at the top.

8⃣ Do not buy stocks as you might store merchandise on sale (Don't buy stuff you don't like or meet your objectives)…

9⃣ Remember that the public is generally wrong (during periods of over-enthusiasm or over-pessimism)…

Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

My Monthly Learning Calendar for Investing.🗓️

If I had 1 hour per day (for non-Company related research), this is what I would do.

Going thru specific topics on specific days should help streamline the reading/learning process w/o causing too much information overload.

Investing in individual stocks is more than just company specific research.

It's about having a broader perspective on many topics including Investing principles/philosophy/history, Industry trends/landscapes, and thoughts/deep dives from other reliable sources.

I'm grateful to all these awesome folks that put out such quality content.

Also separate h/t to all the folks I follow on Twitter (list always growing, albeit slowly). You posts diversify and enrich my feed & learning.

Disclaimers :

Below thread has the resources listed by topic (and not by calendar days).

The below is NOT a ranking of resources. Just a listing of my current fav resources based on specific topics.

Descriptions on why I like each resource is not listed here (due to the huge #). You can find that info for most of these resources in my current pinned tweet.

Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

One of my all-time favorite articles on "Investing Mistakes". h/t Altais Advisors @basrars @vishalmittal22 👏

So many good lessons here for long-term investors in individual stocks. My fav pts in the thread below.

1⃣ Selling good businesses too early: without giving due importance to long term growth outlook and the potential of the business to scale.

If you are invested in a growing business, do not sell it for temporary overvaluation,

there may be some time correction which is fine, which should be managed at a portfolio level. At the same time, one needs to be careful of slowing growth or fundamental deterioration in the business.

2⃣ Going down the Quality curve: Selling good companies, which were growing well, and investing in cheaper but low quality/ growth companies. Over the cycle, this results in sub optimal returns.

3⃣ Waiting for a little lower price to buy: Losing 10-20 baggers waiting for 20-25% lower price! Missing the boat on so many opportunities trying to just get them a bit cheaper, which never comes.

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Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi

Worried about the recent market drop?

Here are 24 top investing quotes from Buffett, Bogle, Graham, and more that can help🧵

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks."

-- John Bogle

"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."

-- Warren Buffett

“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process”

-- Benjamin Graham

"A calm sea does not produce a skilled sailor."

-- Tom Culve

The King Tut
@kingtutspacs

🔎 $RTP/@hippo_insurance: SaaS harnessing AI to revolutionize the home insurance industry 🦛🏠

- Everything you need to know
- One-stop-shop for all things smart/connected home
- Higher growth & revenue than closest public competitor $LMND/@Lemonade_Inc

Time for a thread 🧵⬇️

Hippo was founded in 2015 by Assaf Wand, an ex-McKinsey consultant and Eyal Navon, serial entreprenuer and software engineer.

Wand's interest in insurance was inspired by his father's lengthy career in the "antiquated" insurance industry. $RTP

After two years of R&D, fundraising, and product development, Hippo launched in April 2017 in California.

The company's marketing was centered on the delivery of a 60-sec quote for insurance policies, transparent process, and smart home integration.

https://t.co/msy9u2ZpST $RTP

By March 2019, with Hippo insurance available to more than 50% of the homeowners in the US, the company reported a 25% month-over-month sales growth and total insured property value of more than $50 billion, with a 93% customer retention rate.

https://t.co/D5AyWgonVp $RTP

Hippo is going after a slightly different market. Most of the new insurance companies have pitched services to renters and city dwellers made up of the mostly millennial demographic, while Hippo is aiming its services squarely at homeowners. $RTP

https://t.co/MYo9HWDmdV

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Dan Rose
@drose007

In 2009, an unknown investor from Russia came out of nowhere to make one of the greatest late stage venture bets in the history of Silicon Valley. Why did FB choose an outsider to lead our Series D round? Here’s the inside story:

2 years earlier we famously raised from Microsoft at $15B valuation. That turned out to be a mistake because it set us up for a painful down round. By 2009 growth had slowed and the financial crisis crushed advertising. “Smart money” bids for our Series D were coming in at $3-6B.

We had a high bid at $8B from a respected valley firm, and we had a wildcard bid from Yuri Milner/DST who offered to top any other bid by 20%. We initially chose the reputable firm at a lower price, but they refused to drop a ratchet provision so we decided to give DST a chance.

Yuri understood 2 things that nobody else could see at the time: 1/ He had seen virtual currencies in Eastern Europe and China, believed FB could make money this way. 2/ We were offering secondary shares at 40% discount to preferred, DST was the only firm who valued this.

Yuri not only offered to clear the highest bid by 20%, he also offered to let Zuck vote all of his shares including any secondary shares purchased from early employees. This allowed Zuck to consolidate his voting power.

Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

Phenomenal article/compilation on "The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make". h/t @manualofideas @JMihaljevic 👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

My fav pts in the thread below

Lot of great points on the importance of having a strategy, process, discipline, patience, self-reliance, awareness of risk, biases/emotions, learning from mistakes & more.

Some more ⬇️

The last year has delivered great results to many Portfolios but Market conditions are always changing and it's important to ensure the Process and Portfolio are built to withstand whatever the Market throws at it in the short-term and sustain & succeed for the long-term.

Ram Bhupatiraju
@RamBhupatiraju

🔟Investing Philosophies I greatly admire. Learning from the best Investing Teams out there (that match your Philosophy/Strategy) and improving your own process is one of the best investing hacks. What are some others that you admire?

🔟of my principles at the end.
⬇️⬇️

1⃣ Buffett : Gotta start with the🐐

https://t.co/RKO4BAMbpT

2⃣ Ensemble Capital : @IntrinsicInv @ToddWenning

https://t.co/6Cozku3Vmn

3⃣ Fundsmith : Terry Smith

https://t.co/WqBHvN4RiU

4⃣ Silver Ring Value Partners : Gary Mishuris

https://t.co/hjDC2VBIum

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Thread on
"Intraday Banknifty Strangle based on OI data"

(System already shared, today just share few examples)
(1/n)

-Trade timing after 9:45

-Check Banknifty change in OI data at 9:45, and identify the highest OI built up in call side and put side

-We will sell both strikes with combined premium as SL on both legs.
(2/n)

28th June 2021

BN open-35440
At 9:45 trading at 35350
Highest OI in call side at 35500 CE and 35000 at put side
Strike selection 35500 CE- 35000 PE
(3/n)

29th June 2021

BN open-35323

At 9:45 trading at 35112

Highest OI in call side at 35300 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35300 CE (232) - 35000 PE (150) Combined premium 382 , Both legs SL 382
(4/n)

30th June 2021

BN open-35030

At 9:45 trading at 35002

Highest OI in call side at 35000 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35000 CE(176)- 35000 PE(213) Combined premium 389 , Both legs SL 389
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1/ Recently, I learned about the concept of ‘struggle porn’. This refers to the fetish of sacrificing nearly everything (health, relationships, time) for your startup. I fear that this label is creating more harm than good.

2/ @nateliason wrote a fabulous article about this topic, which first introduced me to this concept. Everyone should read it:

3/ @alexisohanian also recently spoke about struggle porn, though referring to it as ‘hustle porn.’ (as the co-founder of @hustlefundvc, obviously I take issue with this pejorative definition of ‘hustle’, but that’s another topic)

4/ Struggling in itself isn’t necessarily bad. Let’s be real here--if you’re going to start a startup, you will struggle. Founders should expect to work harder generally than employees. You will be challenged in many ways and also be super rewarded in others. This is normal.

5/ However, if you are over-indexing on hard work without clear purpose and degrading your mental health/relationships in the process--then this is very bad and we obviously should not celebrate this behavior.

Anu Satheesh
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Thrikkangode Sree Randu Moorthy Temple
Ottappalam, Kerala. 🚩
#keralatemples

This is very unique temple as Shiva and Vishnu both are in the “linga” form in the same Garbhagriham. The Srikovil is in a circular pattern. Temple's Prathishta was done by Parasurama.

Mahadeva and Maha Vishnu in the same Srikovil is very rare Prathishta, but poojas are done separately Dhara is done to Maha Vishnu here. People suffering from “KAIVISHAM” and mental illness are fully cured on drinking a medicinal herb supplied by a nearby family here.

The root of the banyan tree around the Ayyappa Sannidhanam is said to have great powers for skin ailments.

Very ancient temple but was covered with forest for many years.
Later two persons Chakki and Chaathan, while cutting trees their axe hit on the nearby
@SriramKannan77

Vigrahams and it suddenly started bleeding. Later Devaprashnam was held and thus found out that these were murthy's of Shiva and Vishnu which was worshipped long back. And thus temple is constructed here.
Om Namah Sivaye
Om Namo Narayanaya
🕉🙏🕉

Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

MAHARAANI TARARANI: THE QUEEN OF MARATHAS

Rani Tarabai was the brave daughter-in-law of Chhatrapati Shivaji and one of the greatest medieval Monarchs India ever had.
She was born in 1675 to one of the bravest commander-in-chiefs of Shivaji's Army named Hambir Rao Mohite.

Tarabai was just 8yrs old when she was married to Shivaji's younger son, Rajaram. Mughals and Marathas were constantly at war with each other. Shivaji was crowned the ruler of the Independent Maratha Swarajya in 1674 which was established by him.

However,the great leader died in 1680&the Maratha Samrajya went into a complete&total chaos.Marathas saw some very tough times ahead. In 1689,when Raigad Fort fell to the Mughal Army of over 15000,Shivaji's first wife Saibai and his elder son Sambhaji were captured&put to death.

Sambhaji's wife and son Shahu were taken prisoners to the Mughal court. During the same battle, Shivaji's second son Rajaram(Tarabai's husband) , who was the heir to the throne now, managed to escape using a disguise. He made his way to the Gingee Fort in Tamil Nadu.

Mughal General Zulfikar Khan, however, followed them to Gingee laying siege to the Gingee Fort. From 1690-1698,This was the longest siege by a Mughal Army of any Fort which stands testimony to the military and diplomatic credentials of Rani Tarabai.