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The idea that CERB basic income payments *caused* an increase in population overdose deaths isn't an idea that deserves analysis, but humour me? What if we applied some of Bradford Hill's criteria of causation?

THREAD.

(Spoiler: It makes the notion even more ridiculous)


Temporality?

If CERB caused an increase in fatal ODs, the program had to come *before* the increase. The surge clearly started in *March*.

Compared to Feb:
AB: 43%⬆️
BC: 53%⬆️
ON: 19%⬆️

You couldn't even apply for CERB till *April 6*, and payments didn't come till mid-April.


Dose-response?

In causal relationships, there's⬆️incidence where there's⬆️exposure.

In April when people started getting CERB OD deaths went up in:
AB by 26%
BC by 4.3%
ON by 29%

But the proportion of people getting CERB was statistically *the same* (~23.5%) in each province.


Coherence with established evidence?

The literature shows financial *insecurity*, not financial support, contributes to higher risk substance use and poorer health outcomes. The "CERB made ODs go up" narrative isn't just inconsistent with the science. It's *opposite* to it.


More plausible than other explanations?

The mechanism suggested for the "CERB effect" is that when you give extra money to people previously living on less than we need to survive (that's the *actual* problem), they buy a bunch of drugs and die. So fatality rates go up.
Just finished hearings with the Enviro Minister. @amymacsouthbris asked some great questions on coal, emissions and climate action. Unfortunately, the new Minister either didn't have the questions or didn't want to answer.

Remember this square? Qld Environment Minister wouldn't indicate whether these 18 new coal mines will still be operating in 2050, and whether that's consistent with the governments’ target for net zero emissions by


In response to an Opposition Question, the Environment Minister says Qld will need to cut about 40M tonnes of carbon or 40% below 2018 levels to reach Labor's 2030 target of a 30% emissions reduction. But she stumbles when asked about the plan to get there...

Before the 2017 election Gov't promised a green paper on how to cut pollution for these targets, but it never happened. They promised it again this yr - now called a “Climate Change Strategy”. But...

When asked what funding has been allocated to develop the Climate Change Strategy and when it will be released, @meaghan_scanlon says repeatedly "the plan is a document... it is a document"... and that it will be developed internally.

No budget, no timeline.
Gov. Jared Polis said Friday he was “shocked we were lied to” after The Washington Post reported that there is no stockpile reserve of vaccine doses that the HHS secretary promised earlier this week would soon be released. He has a news conference at 12:30

NOW: Gov. Jared Polis, who today said Colorado was “lied to” by the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services about promised vaccine shipments, is giving an update on the COVID-19 pandemic in the state.

WATCH LIVE:
https://t.co/CiWBfluw7U #COVID19Colorado

Gov. Polis: Today I come before you extremely disappointed that we were lied to by plans from the administration to get second doses.

“There is no federal reserve of doses,” Polis said, explaining the state was expecting 210,000 doses next week. Colorado will only get 79,000.

Polis now providing a timeline on the number of doses starting Jan. 25-31 until Feb. 21.

“We have been misled before but we're expecting (doses) to go up to 90-100K” in the early days of February.

Watch live: https://t.co/CiWBfluw7U #COVID19Colorado


Gov. Polis says he “hopeful” that President-elect Joe Biden's
100 million doses in 100 days” goal will be a reality.

He said Colorado has achieved its goal to vaccine those in Phase 1A by Jan. 15.

"By and large, the priority is 70 and up,” Polis says.
We’ve released our latest bulletin for deaths registered in England and Wales for week ending 1 January 2021.

These data have been affected by the Boxing Day and New Year’s Day bank holidays, and do not represent year-to-date

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 1 January 2021 (Week 53) was 10,069.

This was 1,451 less than Week 52
https://t.co/YOyHMfbDYM


In the week ending 1 January, the provisional number of deaths registered was 26.6% (2,115 deaths) above the five-year average.

This increase should be treated with caution due to the bank holidays

Of the 10,069 deaths registered in Week 53, 3,144 mentioned #COVID19 on the death certificate (31.2% of all deaths).

This has risen by 232 #COVID19 deaths since the previous week https://t.co/KtySaidOd4


Of the 3,144 deaths involving #COVID19, 87.2% had this recorded as the underlying cause of death.

Of the 2,494 deaths involving influenza and pneumonia, 7.5% had these as the underlying cause
Inauguration is one of those times that federal Washington and local D.C. collide head on, though never so much as this year. Our team at @wamu885news and @DCist has been relentlessly focused on the second half of that equation....

On a bright, cold Saturday, we found a scene that onlookers described as “surreal” and “post-apocalyptic.” One ANC commissioner estimated that troops outnumbered residents five to one.
https://t.co/CVYH5gC26E


Residents in the militarized zone described how their lives have been ensnared by the security apparatus. “With the bridges closing out of Virginia, it feels like it’s just us, and the whole world is watching.” https://t.co/HbW2FtOsjm


Speaking of the bridges closing, @JWPascale mapped out the street closures. As Mayor Muriel Bowser put it: “Clearly we are in unchartered waters.” https://t.co/qU9lOPCqsx


All of those closures and new security measures have upended the lives and services of people experiencing homelessness, as @mikafrak reported