BC FINANCE
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

TSMC $TSM projecting capital expenses of 25-28B USD in 2021. 80% allocated for advanced process tech, 3, 5, 7nm. 10% advanced packaging and mask making, 10% other. 2020 capex, originally slated at $15B, was over $17B. For context $AMD's entire revenue for 2020 estimated at $9.5B

 Management sees a growing market and TSMC growing faster than the market, with a 2020-2025 CAGR of 10-15%. In 2019 capex was initially estimated at $10-11B and then revised up to $15B. They are expanding fast, and newer nodes are more capital intensive.
3nm looking good and has strong customer interest, production in 2H 2022.
All this, especially the capex, in line with suggestions Intel will be increasing their use of TSMC fabs, or else AMD making really large increases (or both), but they also project a lot of growth in phones
TSMC utilization rate is very high, and they expect it to remain high in Q1. They expect more revenue in Q1 than in Q4. Margin is hit by the weak USD and the large capex, but they still think a 50% gross margin is reasonable, long term.
Analyst on call surprised at raise in capex, says it is above consensus. Hmmm $INTC?
As usual, since TSMC reports before other companies, the analysts are repeatedly trying to get TSMC to give them hints about what their clients are doing, particularly to confirm what Intel is doing. TSMC management isn't answering those of course.
I'm going to need to relisten to Roland's question on the call, I might have missed a bit. Sounded like TSMC denying that they do long term supply contracts but they always "work with their customers" and build out capacity they think the market is demanding.
Interesting b/c you'd think that if Intel came in for CPUs, might contract with TSMC, i.e. build a fab and give us everything out of it. Others might also prefer this approach, but seems to be regarding Intel. TSMC made clear they don't work that way. But I didn't catch it all.
Interesting comment: TSMC used to fab mostly for phones. Starting from 2020 on, HPC jumps on, moderates seasonality with multiple big customers and market segments. Gives them confidence to increase capex.
Wow, the worst shortages are in the mature nodes, not N7 and N5. F autos, IoT, etc

I expect some inflation for autos and appliances as production is limited by the silicon shortage. Not like these fabs want to build more capacity at these nodes.
Another analyst surprised by "really huge capex", management indicates it is for increased capacity 2022, not for 2021.
Ok, I'm sold. These analysts are so blatant in asking questions that would only apply to Intel. But the sensitivity to *not* be able to answer a question about whether a customer would need to redesign a chip from their own process to TSMC, makes me really think rumors are true.
I mean, I've never done it but I would assume that definitely Intel would need to send over a specific design made for TSMC. Not being willing to blanket make that clear, I mean obviously something is up.
TSMC US fab starts construction in 2021.
Now talking about a longer lead time for EUV tools, they are buying them in advance. Good luck to anyone else getting them, I can't imagine what the lead time is after TSMC is done with their new orders.
TSMC long term plan is a mega-scale production site in Phoenix Arizona (USA), but starting with phase 1 plan of 20,000 wafers per month.

They still plan on continuing to expand in China, but a reset on the leading edge.
HPC will be the major growth driver for TSMC. Exciting changes happening, multiple architectures fighting. On N3 and N5. Not counting on cryptocurrency.
TSMC dividend will be steadily increasing. Ok, that's it, call over. Sorry if I stole your thunder @cyw60 , if you post a thread I'll link it here.
I've found @cyw60's notes to be helpful in the past https://t.co/5zD5I1bC1j
After sleeping on this, I'd like to say Intel fabbing CPUs at TSMC is not confirmed yet. There was an article from Trendforce with no sources, large capex at TSMC, and defensive answers to questions. But Trendforce could be wrong and other things could have alternate explanations
Just want to say that because the market is going to move company valuations around depending on whether or not it is true. I know that my thesis will change. If Intel is *not* fabbing CPUs (already doing other chips), there are big implications of the huge increase in capex.

More from Finance

10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
Get a cup of coffee.

Let's kickstart 2022!

To that end, here are 22 key concepts to help you appreciate and achieve Financial Independence.

Concept #1.

What is Financial Independence?

It's a state of *self-sufficiency*. It's when you have enough money, and enough income-producing assets, that you and your family can live comfortably for the rest of your lives -- WITHOUT needing a job.

Concept #2.

Financial Independence is not really about spending MONEY how we like -- although, to an extent, that becomes possible.

It's about being FREE to spend our TIME how we like.


Concept #3.

Financial Independence is not really about quitting our jobs and retiring from work -- although that's possible.

It's about being FREE to pursue *whatever* kind of work we find most fulfilling. Things we love to do. Things the world benefits from. Etc.


Concept #4.

For most of us, the path to Financial Independence consists of:

- Starting Early,
- Saving Diligently, and
- Investing Responsibly.

Here's an inspiring story of a janitor who amassed an $8M fortune by following this very playbook:
FINANCE
Niranjan Avasthi
Niranjan Avasthi
@avasthiniranjan
A simple thread to understand relationship between US Dollar and Emerging Markets.

The relationship between the performance of Emerging Market stocks and the US Dollar is one of the tightest macro relationships that exists in investing.

1/15

The weekly return correlation between US Dollar and MSCI Emerging Market Index is -0.70 over last 10 years. Which means when US Dollar weakens, Emerging Market stocks rally and vice versa.

2/15

As seen in this chart, the MSCI EM Index and the MSCI World Index ratio and the US Dollar Index are negatively-correlated.

When US Dollar weakens, EM index outperform World Index and when US Dollar strengthens EM index underperform World index.

3/15


From 1995 to 2000, the USD appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by over 15% annualised.

Then from 2001 to 2010, the U.S. dollar depreciated over 18% while the MSCI EM Index outperformed the MSCI World Index by 14% annualised.

4/15

Then from 2011 to 2020, the U.S. dollar appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by 7% annualized.

Overall, from 1995 to 2020, this relationship has a correlation of -0.35.

5/15
FINANCE , STOCKLEARNINGS , MARKET LEARNINGS
Advertisement
MagaFarley
MagaFarley
@MagaFarley
THREAD:

What if I can prove @KLoeffler has direct financial ties to China, doing just a simple open source dive into her recent past?

It’s pretty obvious...follow along:
FINANCE
Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian
@EPBResearch
Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!

Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation

It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in


The full thread can be reviewed here:


Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!

Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate

3/


Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.

4/


So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *

This is a key point.

5/
FINANCE
Operation Cupcake
Operation Cupcake
@PhillipsBarrie
Jess Phillips is funded by a Luxury Property Developer behind a number of controversial schemes. The register of financial interests lists a donation totaling £6,000 from Court Consultants. Plus a £8,000 a year sideline from the Tories. #LabourLeaks

Jess Phillips MP’s office is funded by a property developer criticised for not including enough affordable housing in his tower blocks. #LabourLeaks

Court Consultants is controlled by Birmingham property developer Anthony McCourt. He is a longstanding financial backer of Jess Phillips. In 2017, Anthony McCourt also gave £3,000 to Phillips to help with the running of her local Labour party.


Councils try to oblige property developers to build some affordable housing in their new buildings in return for planning permission. But recent developments involving Antony McCourt failed to meet even these limited attempts by councils to increase the amount lower-cost housing.

McCourt runs his developments through his other company, Court Collaboration. Recent Court Collaboration schemes have also been criticised for not containing enough affordable housing. #LabourLeaks
FINANCE

You May Also Like

Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/Politics thread time.

To me, the most important aspect of the 2018 midterms wasn't even about partisan control, but about democracy and voting rights. That's the real battle.

2/The good news: It's now an issue that everyone's talking about, and that everyone cares about.

3/More good news: Florida's proposition to give felons voting rights won. But it didn't just win - it won with substantial support from Republican voters.

That suggests there is still SOME grassroots support for democracy that transcends

4/Yet more good news: Michigan made it easier to vote. Again, by plebiscite, showing broad support for voting rights as an

5/OK, now the bad news.

We seem to have accepted electoral dysfunction in Florida as a permanent thing. The 2000 election has never really
POLITICS
Fidato
Fidato
@tequieremos
A thread on the life and achievements of Muhiyudin Sayyid Abdul Qadir Jillani RadiAllah who served Islam infinitely as the Reviver (Mujadid) of the 11th Century!


Muhiyudin Sayyid Abdul Qadir Jilani (RA) was one of the greatest Islamic Saint, Scholar, and Jurist. The honorific Muhiyudin denotes his status with many Sufis as a "reviver of religion". Jilani refers to his place of birth. He also carried the epithet Baghdadi.

[1]

Sheikh Abdul Qadir Jilani was born on the eve of the 2nd of Ramadan 470 AH. His birth was a great blessing for the Ummah. It was the arrival of the Sultan al-Awliya (King of the Awliya) of that era, which had been foretold for centuries before his birth.

[2]

When Hazrat Abdul Qadir Jillani was asked by someone what brought him to his high spiritual level, he said, The truthfulness which I promised to my mother. He related the following story:
"One day, on the eve of Eid al-Adhā, I went to my mother, who was then a widow and..

[3]

..and requested her, 'Send me to the path of Truth, give me permission to go to Baghdad to acquire knowledge, to be with the wise and those who are close to Allah. She cried, but she brought out 80 pieces of gold, which was all that my father had left as inheritance.

[4]
RELIGION
Advertisement
Caleb Porzio
Caleb Porzio
@calebporzio
🎉🎉 PHP 7.3 is here!

Here are the things I'm excited about.

🚂 Trailing commas in function/method calls!

This will certainly be a required styling choice for me. Same delightful benefits of trailing comma in multi-line PHP arrays, and JavaScript objects.


🧵 Less disgusting heredoc syntax!

Inlining heredoc strings in any way right now is grrrosssss. Now we get sensible capabilities. Everything that was wrong with it is now fixed!

(Ignore the bad syntax highlighting)


☠️ Finally, not-so-silent json_decode error detection!

This really sucked before, now it just sucks a bit less (who wants to pass a 4th param and pass 2 default params first? (helper function anybody?)


📜 Not horrible functions for getting the first and last item (or key) from an array!

Before you either strung a bunch of functions together or messed with internal array pointers. This is a much-needed improvement.
TECH
Filippo Valsorda
Filippo Valsorda
@FiloSottile
“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.

Always. No, your company is not an exception.

A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.

Listen to Aditya


And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.

I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.

You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.

Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
LIFE
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Most software founders, particularly in B2B, need to get radically better at sales. @Steli , who is the best person for explaining the scrappy stages in the beginning and then building out a team with scripts and processes, wrote a guide to:

For technical founders it is irrationally, obscenely hard to reverse years of programming (ba dum bum) that sales is a value-destroying activity. Sales is CLEARLY a value-creating activity, contingent on you have a value-creating product.

The world will not drop what they are doing to adopt your work. This is particularly true in B2B, where simply building a better mousetrap won't overcome the activation energy required to get people with additional non-mice problems to prioritize changing mousetraps today.

This is very non-obvious for founders because founders are not often people who *want* to be sold to. We often come from a background where trying out tools is a bit of a fun hobby. We like looking at all the options, making charts, and ripping out partially complete tests.

"This week I unsuccessfully trialed four software options for automating that thing that has been killing us. Our actual production process remains the same as last week. Don't worry; this was a great use of time." is not a thing you want to write in a progress report to manager.
TECH