Inflation is coming, inflation is coming!

Last month I wrote about the distinction between long-term secular inflation and shorter-term cyclical inflation

It has been clear for several months that we are in the middle of a cyclical rise in

The full thread can be reviewed here:

https://t.co/0jBvHOWuHw

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Today's PPI report should have been expected to surprise to the upside as the leading indicators of inflation have been screaming to the upside for months!

Here is the ISM prices paid index, cumulated into a growth rate

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Industrial commodity prices have also seen a major acceleration for months.

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So today's PPI report was in line with the leads, suggesting that we have a cyclical upturn in inflation that is * primarily concentrated in the manufacturing sector *

This is a key point.

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Core PPI showed an increase in year over year terms to nearly 2.5%.

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To be very clear, this cyclical upturn in inflation will continue for the next several months and should not be expected to fall apart imminently

This does not mean the secular disinflationary trend is over. We have had 4-5 of these upturns since 2010. They happen. They fade

7/
Sticking with the trend of a general manufacturing-based upturn, what else surprised to the upside (shouldn't have been a surprise)...industrial production.

IP growth increased to -1.83% y/y

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Industrial production for manufacturing specifically is almost back to positive growth on a year over year basis.

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Should we expect the manufacturing-based growth and inflation upturn to continue?

Yes.

But remember to differentiate cyclical for secular.

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We're not changing this trend anytime soon.

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TLDR:

Play the cyclical trend. Don't lose sight of the long-term fundamentals.

12/12

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Ivor Cummins has been wrong (or lying) almost entirely throughout this pandemic and got paid handsomly for it.

He has been wrong (or lying) so often that it will be nearly impossible for me to track every grift, lie, deceit, manipulation he has pulled. I will use...


... other sources who have been trying to shine on light on this grifter (as I have tried to do, time and again:


Example #1: "Still not seeing Sweden signal versus Denmark really"... There it was (Images attached).
19 to 80 is an over 300% difference.

Tweet: https://t.co/36FnYnsRT9


Example #2 - "Yes, I'm comparing the Noridcs / No, you cannot compare the Nordics."

I wonder why...

Tweets: https://t.co/XLfoX4rpck / https://t.co/vjE1ctLU5x


Example #3 - "I'm only looking at what makes the data fit in my favour" a.k.a moving the goalposts.

Tweets: https://t.co/vcDpTu3qyj / https://t.co/CA3N6hC2Lq

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