BC EU
Saved by @Jacobtldr

After Michel Barnier's briefing of EU ambassadors this afternoon, here's where things stand:

 2/ There is a basic deadline of Christmas Eve to get a deal. That will give the EU's legal services time to draw up a letter to send to the UK seeking provisional application of the treaty from Jan 1
3/ It's understood officials will need four days at a minimum to draft a letter seeking provisional application of the treaty (all this is on the basis that it is pretty much too late for the European Parliament to ratify the treaty on time for Jan 1)
4/ On the prospects for a deal: diplomats say they're not ruling out a deal by Christmas eve. Michel Barnier said there had been significant progress. Member states expect to convene a meeting of the Working Party (of Brexit coordinators) every day (except Christmas Day)
5/ Acc to one diplomat Barnier will publish the text once/if it's agreed, but before it's been legally scrubbed. Member states can approve the text via written procedure (sending a formal letter) as there are no Council meetings foreseen to do it in person between now and Dec 31
6/ There are still some issues around the level playing field and governance, areas the UK wants to change, or wants sunset clauses on. For example, London wants to limit the extent to which energy can be subject to the level playing field constraints
7/ Despite the cautious optimism that a deal can be done, fisheries remains a major problem. Member states say the UK offer of the EU handing over 35pc of the value of its catches does not count pelagic spieces and that's a serious problem
8/ The UK is proposing to hive off pelagics to the informal independent coastal state forum including Norway, Iceland, the Faroes etc. Problem for EU is boats would lose a stable outlook on access for pelagics + wd have to negotiate access annually
9/ Barnier told ambassadors the UK was still looking for a three year transition while the EU would accept 6 years, although some MS felt even that was not long enough
10/ The general feeling is that the UK offer does not give EU fishing communities stability and predictability - and it excludes the 6-12m zone. Also, acc to sources, the UK offer makes burden sharing difficult, eg Ireland + Denmark wd suffer disproportionately on pelagic stocks.
11/ Overall, member states believe fisheries is so sensitive and even non-coastal member states have not noticeably broken ranks on the issue (in Belgium, for example, fishing is a Flemish pursuit + the central govt can't afford to alienate Flemish nationalists on the issue)
12/ Barnier said the image of Brexit in Europe on Jan 1 would be angry protesting fishermen. How wd you explain to people we're going to give the UK interconnection rights in the North Sea to the EU grid + at the same time our boats aren't allowed to catch fish in UK waters?
13/ Other outstanding areas still not resolved: rules of origin for electric batteries; UK participation in Erasmus; and an EU demand for a non-discrimination clause...
14/ This wd mean that the UK cannot discriminate against any member state. It's been incorporated into social security cooperation, but not into the sphere of short term visas. This is a non-neogiable element for the EU, I'm told
15/ In particular there is a concern that, say, Romanian citizens would be given worse treatment compared to other member states when it came to short term visas.
16/ Council legal services told ambassadors that lawyer-linguists had been working "day and night" to try to get the draft text legally scrubbed and that even if the deal was done tonight MS would not get a watertight, legally scrubbed English text on time
17/ Officials refer to a non-legally scrubbed text as a "dirty" text (says here). The treaty wd need a special provision saying the 23 "authentic" legally-sound translated texts wd all be available in March / April and wd replace the "dirty" English text signed in the coming days
18/ Member states are getting increasingly frustrated that they cannot see a draft text yet. There will be a meeting of the Working Party tomorrow where member states will get a detailed outline of what's in the treaty (but no text) in a mtg which could last four hours
19/ And, wait for it, one official raised the possibility that the text is now 2,000 pages long, including annexes

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How significant were @vonderleyen's remarks to the European Parliament this morning?

One senior EU diplomat says takes note in particular of her opening words. "Frankly, I cannot tell you today if in the end there will be a deal."

2/ That this sentiment is being expressed by the European Commission President on Nov 25 with just over a month to Jan 1, is significant. In Brussels there are only two questions: will there be enough time to ratify any deal? Is @BorisJohnson prepared to take a big political step

3/ Yes, it takes two to tango, etc. But it's clear from Von der Leyen's comments that the EU is going to stand firm on the level playing field issue.

4/ “We are ready to be creative but we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market, the main safeguard of European prosperity and wealth" she told the EP.

5/ She repeated the demand for "robust mechanisms" to ensure competition is free and fair over time - ie, going back to the language of the Political Declaration. Also, the need "maintain common high standards now and in the future”. That's the "ratchet" or "evolution" clause
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Here are some observations from the EU side on the touring issue facing musicians

2/ The European Commission offered the UK a standard mobility clause in its draft legal text back in March last year that would cover musicians, sportspersons etc... It's on page 354 of the EU's opening text ahead of the negotiations

3/ Under a standard mobility clause, acc to one official, EU member states can ask for visas for certain people coming to carry out paid activity. However, there's a list of exemptions for people who don't need visas:

4/ This list includes those "travelling for the purpose of business deliberations..., sportspersons or artists [including musicians] performing an activity on an ad-hoc basis, journalists sent by the media of their country of residence, and intra-corporate trainees."

5/ In other words, under a standard mobility provision, musicians, journalists, sports people and business people who travel to discuss contracts etc do not need visas. Officials say this is the standard EU arrangement for third countries, eg the US.
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The DUP's Ian Paisley MP tells the NI Affaris Committee that the NI Protocol shd be "removed" and that Article 16 of the Protocol should be invoked. Describes it as an "unmitigated disaster... Those who advocated for the Protocol have some responsibility for that.

"The protocol is now an impediment to trade. We told you so."

Article 16 of the NI Protocol: "If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the EU or the UK may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures.

"Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the
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Mr Paisley then berates @Freight_NI for not demanding that Article 16 be invoked. Mr Leheny asks him what the alternative is. Mr Paisley says removing the Protocol is the alternative.
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Irish foreign min Simon Coveney says he is "more optimistic" about progress in the EU UK Joint Committee over implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol.

2/ Last night @rtenews reported that if a free trade deal were to be concluded, a sequence would be put in place at the end of which the UK would drop the clauses in the Internal Market Bill which breach the Protocol.

3/ This morning, the EU’s representative on the Joint Committee, which implements the Protocol, said he would be meeting his counterpart Michael Gove in Brussels today.


4/ Mr Coveney said: “There is more cause to be optimistic and positive in the context of the Joint Committee and its work in terms of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement and the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland.

5/ “Maros Sefcovic and Michael Gove have made really practical progress on many of the outstanding issues that were not resolved up until a few weeks ago.
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Tony Connelly
Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
NEW: European Commission president @vonderleyen: As things stand I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not, but I can tell you there is a path to an agreement now. The path may be very narrow but it is there.

2/ VDL - it is therefore our responsibility to continue trying.

3/ Commission president says the "good news" is we have found a way forward on most issues, but this is now a case of being "so close and yet being so far away from each other."

4/ VDL - level playing field: our aim is simply fair competition on our own market.

Says the "architecture" of a level playing field provision rests on two pillars: state aid and standards

5/ On state aid we have made progress based on common princples, guarantees of domestic enforcement, the possibility to autonomously remedy the situation where needed [ie, either side can take action if distortions of trade etc]
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Tony Connelly
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@tconnellyRTE
How significant were @vonderleyen's remarks to the European Parliament this morning?

One senior EU diplomat says takes note in particular of her opening words. "Frankly, I cannot tell you today if in the end there will be a deal."

2/ That this sentiment is being expressed by the European Commission President on Nov 25 with just over a month to Jan 1, is significant. In Brussels there are only two questions: will there be enough time to ratify any deal? Is @BorisJohnson prepared to take a big political step

3/ Yes, it takes two to tango, etc. But it's clear from Von der Leyen's comments that the EU is going to stand firm on the level playing field issue.

4/ “We are ready to be creative but we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market, the main safeguard of European prosperity and wealth" she told the EP.

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Dear fellow musicians, performers, technicians etc. Here’s a thread about how our lives are going to change re touring/working in the EU in 50 days time. Think of it as a kind of Bad News Advent calendar. Here goes 1/

First things first, you’ll need a passport with at least 6 months left on it. And you’ll need full travel/third party/health insurance, since if you get ill or have an accident every penny of your care will have to be paid for 2/

To work or do a gig you’re going to need a work visa, just like you do for the USA. But here’s the thing. Work permits & visas and the conditions attached are a matter not for the EU but for the member states themselves 3/

Yes, every member state controls who comes in and who doesn’t and what the rules will be for work and residency. It’s almost as if the Brexiters have been lying about this ALL ALONG. EU members CONTROL THEIR OWN BORDERS 4/

So you’ll need to get a work permit for every country you’re intending to work or gig in and the rules are often different, as are the rules on eg taxation of that work (eg Spain has a withholding tax, France does not) 5/
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The two most irritating sentences I find myself typing over and over on this website are:
1. "There are many pathways to universal healthcare"
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& if you're going to come at me from the economic angle, plz do some research into EU center right parties. There's a lot of btwn-country variation, but these parties typically aim towards increased privatization of public systems & deregulation of industry. Dems do the opposite.

A related area is austerity. To look at recent history, examine how many EU countries chipped away at funding their extant safety nets, esp in healthcare, during the recession. What did the US do under Dems? A massive expansion of healthcare.

Now, the ACA is far from perfect and I want a much greater public role as well as the eventual minimization/near-elimination of private insurance in the system. That said, it's simply true that the U.S. expanded our healthcare system when many EU countries were cutting theirs.

You can't just compare a party in absolute economic terms across countries. This is especially the case when you have massive generational differences in building of the social safety net/welfare state.
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1/n

Moving averages
EMA and SMA
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is similar to Simple Moving Average (SMA), measuring trend direction over a period of time.
2. However, whereas SMA simply calculates an average of price data, EMA applies more weight to data that is more current
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21 EMA : SHORT TERM TREND
1. Calculates the Average Price of past 21 days
2. A stock above 21 ema is in strong momentum , which will give pullbacks to 21 ema again and again.
3. Stock above 21 ema should never be shorted so as to stay with the trend
3/n

3. A stock which moves 10-15% above 21 ema will be too extended and hence will generally pullback
Stocks take dynamic support on 21 ema
4. You can Short only if its too extended like 15 to 20% from 21 ema ( Not advised )
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1. Whenever 21 ema is sloping upwards its called uptrend
2. Whenever 21 ema is sloping downwards its called dowtrend
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