BC ECONOMY
Saved by @jacobhtml

A thread on an interesting report by Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer, the bank's chief global equity strategist. He points out that Goldman's "Bear Market Risk Indicator" is looking ominous.

 There are three factors that suggest that the recent stability could evaporate and that equities are "about to enter a sustained bear market", Oppenheimer says.
First is the fact that growth, inflation and interest rate outlook is unfriendly for equities.
Second is that greater volatility, such as multiple corrections and new peaks (which we've seen in 2018) tend to presage a full bear market.
Here is Goldman's data showing how falls and bounces tend to come ahead of "the dramatic final fall".
Oppenheimer: "The risk, therefore, is that from these levels the market enjoys a short-term rally but this becomes a signal to sell rather than buy the market."
Oppenheimer's third reason to worry is Goldman's own bear market risk indicator (made from a mix of jobs data, inflation, yield curve and valuations). When it rises above 60% it has historically been a good time to turn cautious, and its currently at 73%.
However, on balance Goldman's Oppenheimer says a prolonged period of more subdued returns is more likely than an outright crash, mostly because valuations are now actually pretty modest after October's slump.
Goldman also reckons growth will slow but stay positive, points out the multi-decade trend towards less economic volatility. and doesn't see any major financial imbalances.
Against that, Goldman can see three causes for concern. 1. A lack of fiscal and monetary policy flexibility in the US, with budget deficit ballooning and interest rates still low compared to history.
Secondly, (and a subject dear to my heart), the seismic shift towards more machine-driven markets, which seems to have lifted the volatility of market volatility, even as economic volatility has drooped lower.
Thirdly, Oppenheimer highlights concentrated flows, ETF explosion, positioning and crowding, which could lead to more exaggerated market moves in a downturn.
The report ends by examining the anatomy of different types of bear markets, categorizing them into the classic cyclical downturn, event-driven ones triggered by an external shock, and structural ones, driven by financial bubbles and imbalances.
Here is a list of every US bear market since the 1800s, categorised according to type, and with how long they lasted and how long the recovery took.
FIN.

More from Economy

Brian Wesbury
Brian Wesbury
@wesbury
Inflation Is Coming!

Some say: Inflation didn’t rise after 2008-2015 Fed QE, so it won’t rise this time. Here are the problems with that argument.

1) From 2008-2015 regulators hammered the banks, so while the Fed’s balance sheet expanded, M2 did not accelerate.

2) In 2020, we used the banks to push out money, the opposite of the first round of QE. PPP loans were financed through banks and unemployment checks were direct-deposited.
3) The M2 measure of money is up more than 25% in the past 12 months.

4) That alone, 25%+ M2 growth, is enough, but we are compounding the problems.
5) Regulating fossil fuel production drives energy prices up.
6) Ag, industrial & transportation are energy intensive, and many claim they are bad for the environment. Result: higher prices.

7) Federal government borrowing and deficit spending encourages more Fed money printing, and artificially lifts demand.
8) Higher tax rates, rising minimum wage, and big government crowd out the private sector; reducing supply.
9) Demand up; Supply down! Inflation is coming.
ECONOMY
Lillian Li
Lillian Li
@lillianmli
1) Let's talk about a key part of the Chinese creator economy. The creator management and incubator agencies known as Multi-Channel Networks (MCN). We''ll summerise key lessons for the western creator economy.

And know how Li Ziqi got her 12m YouTube subscribers

2) MCNs are modern-day talent agencies (but more) who target influencers and creators as their clients. It originated in the US but has proliferated in China, with industry estimates of 5k-7k Chinese MCN operating as of 2020.

3) Typically, as creators gain enough following, they find it difficult to be an-all-in-one content creator, editor, customer support rep, accountant, lawyer, and marketing guru that the job demands.

Enter the MCNs who offers the creator the following:

4) Audience and traffic growth, PR management, monetisation through ads & e-commerce and support with retail fulfillment.

Their services are more holistic than western MCNs, who's offerings are more domain-specific.

5) Agreements between Chinese MCNs and creators can get into guarantees of the number of followers provided, copyrights, subtitling and distribution help, as well as providing analytical feedback on their content.
ECONOMY
Advertisement
Soham Das, CFA
Soham Das, CFA
@sohamdas
On Jan 6, 2021, the always stellar Mr @deepakshenoy tweeted, this:

https://t.co/fa3GX9VnW0

Innocuous 1 sentence, but its a full economic theory at play.
Let me break it down for you. (1/n)


On September 30, 2020, I wrote an article for @CFASocietyIndia where I explained that RBI is all set to lose its ability to set interest rates if it continues to fiddle with the exchange rate (2/n)

What do I mean, "fiddle with the exchange rate"?

In essence, if RBI opts and continues to manage exchange rate, then that is "fiddling with the exchange rate"

RBI has done that in the past and has restarted it in 2020 - very explicitly. (3/n)

First in March 2020, it opened a Dollar/INR swap of $2B with far leg to be unwound in September 2020.

Implying INR will be bought from the open markets in order to prevent INR from falling vis a vis USD (4/n)

The Second aspect is now, that dollar inflow is happening, and the forex reserves swelled -> implying the rupee is appreciating, RBI again intervened from September, by selling INR in spot markets. (5/n)
https://t.co/9kpWP7ovyM
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/16

It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most

2/16

were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...

3/16

I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...

4/16

worsening of the healthy parts of its economy by unleashing enough of the unhealthy, non-productive growth it has long tried to constrain – basically real estate and infrastructure investment – in order to achieve as much economic activity as it...

5/16

needed for domestic political ends.

And that’s exactly what happened. While GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, even with substantial tailwinds its retail sales measure – a proxy for consumption – was only up 4.6%, and it was down 3.9% overall in 2020.
ECONOMY
Marjorie Taylor Greene \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
Marjorie Taylor Greene...
@mtgreenee
I’m focused on building an American free market economy protecting free speech.

Allowing the businesses with the highest creativity & best end user experience to compete.

Driving prices low, quality and service high, and putting American’s first.

Made in America!

Cont’d..
ECONOMY

You May Also Like

Zen Black
Zen Black
@z3nblack
1/ Thread: "A Silicon Valley Ponzi Scheme"

Thanks to @chamath for laying this out in Social Capital's 2018 annual letter.

I've always appreciated his outspokenness.

2/ The hardest thing for most startups today is the path to market: first finding product-market fit & a way to reach customers, then building a ruthless machine to acquire, monetize & retain them.

3/ Because of this, when the VC industry invests capital into fast growing startups today, the plurality (if not majority) of invested capital will go into user acquisition and ad spending, for better or worse— usually worse.

4/ Todays massive venture-backed advertising, sales, and user acquisition playbook has morphed into one that champions growth at any cost.

This is creating a big bill that will soon come due...

5/ Ad impressions and click-throughs are bid up to outrageous prices by startups flush with venture money, and prospective users demand more and more subsidized products to gain their initial attention.
TECH , STARTUPS , {TEST FOLDER}
ArmaniTalks \U0001f399\U0001f525
ArmaniTalks 🎙🔥...
@ArmaniTalks
Shy people are either overthinking or highly observant of the social setting.

And in many cases it can be both.

'So what do I do?'

You learn the 75/25 law.

'What is that?'

The law of charisma...👇

Let's address the over thinkers first.

Do you have any idea why you overthink?

'Yea. Because others are judging how shy I am.'

Incorrect.

Others are thinking about themselves, not you.

But the fact that you think they are thinking about you, you fuck up the interaction.

Now you stay in your head too much & avoid the present moment.

A major no no in the social world.

Your tendency to think that others are judging you for being shy, coincidentally makes you more shy.

And that's when you start giving off a strange vibration to the social setting.

This is when you begin attracting comments like 'why are you so quiet?'
LIFE
Advertisement
\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940 \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी ...
@HiteshAwasthi89
#Thread
An interesting story of Kamala Devi hazarika for all Sanatanis...🙏

A Xtian missionary was sent to Assam for the promotion of religion. His name was Cruz. He came across to one the boys from an influential family in Assam to teach him English.
@noconversion

Cont 👇


The p@stor slowly began to study the house and he learned that the boy's grandmother was the most influential person in the house. So he thought 'Corrupting the grandmother's mind can make the whole family Xtian as well as the whole village.

Cont 👇


The p@stor began to tell Grandma the stories of how J€$u$ cured leprosy of lepers, how He gave sight to the blind, etc..But after listening to him, the strong Sanatani grandmother said. A stone turned into a living woman (Ahalya) for our Rama when he touched the stone.

Cont 👇


She spoke of Rama setu where stones floated in sea just by writing his name on the stones and that they are still floating today.
The p@stor continued his efforts but all his tricks went in vain.

Cont 👇


One day he had brought a cake from the church and he thought of offering it to grandmother but he was doubtful that she would eat it. But contrary to his expectation, she took the cake and ate it.

Cont 👇
ALL
Warrior Axom
Warrior Axom
@WarriorAxom
I am a student of DHSK college, Dibrugarh. I belong to 1 st Sem , History Department. And my generic subject is Political Science. Our history professor Mr Abhijit Baruah on our first day said
1) You Hindus don't have any history
2) If you want to study real history contd...

then study Islamic& European history.
3) He is a hardcore communist ( urban naxal I must say )

4) He says you hindu people don't have any history coz you people were busy writing about your imaginary Gods.

5 ) He says us to read history books of Romilla Thapar ( hindu hater)

He is brainwashing students since 80s. Another professor Mr Biraj Dutta says "we need revolution. Ami Delhi r sorkar uforai pelabo lgibo " Another Comrade professor Mr Sun Gogoi of Pol Sc. Dept says Urban Naxal is a derogatory term used by fascist Hindutva goons to defame (3)

Students of JNU and overall all the student community. He says Lala Lajpat Rai & all the nationalist politicians of that time were casteist including former President of India Mr Rajendra Prasad.

Now the historic DHSK college & all the college's of Assam may doing this from (4)

a long time. Now what should I do ? Should I stand against them. Should I oppose them ? My inner Hindu does not allow me to tolerate anymore.
Should I complain ? But to whom ? Anyone can be an Urban Naxal . Whom to believe? Should I think about my career & keep quite (5)
INDIA
TXgrlWatching\U0001f4bb\u2694\U0001f6e1
TXgrlWatching💻⚔🛡...
@VeritasTXgem
Thread A History lesson for the MOAB:
1. The United States of America is not and has never been a Democracy, we're a Federal Republic tied together by the capital Laws of the Constitution.

Everyone in the country is about to get a harsh lesson on what this really means...

2. In 1871, February 21: Congress Passes an Act to Provide a Government for the District of Columbia, also known as the Act of 1871.

With no constitutional authority to do so, Congress creates a separate form of
government for the District of Columbia.

3. A ten mile square parcel of land (see,
Acts of the Forty-first Congress,” Section 34, Session III, chapters 61 and

4. The act — passed when the country was weakened and financially depleted in
the aftermath of the Civil War — was a strategic move by foreign interests
(international bankers) who were intent upon gaining a stranglehold on the coffers and neck of America.

5. Congress cut a deal w/ the international bankers(Rothschilds of London) to incur a DEBT to said bankers. Because the bankers were not about to lend money to a floundering nation w/out serious stipulations, they devised a way to get their foot in the door of the United States.
HISTORYLESSON