On Jan 6, 2021, the always stellar Mr @deepakshenoy tweeted, this:
https://t.co/fa3GX9VnW0
Innocuous 1 sentence, but its a full economic theory at play.
Let me break it down for you. (1/n)
91 day TBills at 3.03%. Interest rates are even lower than RBI has them.
— Deepak Shenoy (@deepakshenoy) January 6, 2021
In essence, if RBI opts and continues to manage exchange rate, then that is "fiddling with the exchange rate"
RBI has done that in the past and has restarted it in 2020 - very explicitly. (3/n)
Implying INR will be bought from the open markets in order to prevent INR from falling vis a vis USD (4/n)
https://t.co/9kpWP7ovyM
Which is what the subject of my Sept 2020 essay with @CFASocietyIndia was. (6/n)
This:
Consider three legs of a stool of an economy-
a. Ability of Dollar to flow in when excess in global economy
b. Fixed Exchange Rate
c. Ability to set interest rates (7/n)
You can choose any 2 of the 3 legs.
Choose : controlled interest rate (and hence low inflation) and fixed INR/USD rate, you cannot have an open economy.
Which India was till 1992. (8/n)
INR will fluctuate around.
Which India has adopted in the recent years. (9/n)
Many famous currency bets were made because central banks sought to ignore this theory. (10/n)
Because RBI has chosen to have a 'fixed exchange rate' (or at least as fixed as markets would allow) and an open economy, it is losing its influence on setting the interest rates in the market (12/n)
More from Economy
1. HUGE DISCOVERY!
What would have been exposed if @GenFlynn hadn't been impeded by corrupt FBI, DOJ and the Obama White house?
He'd have exposed CHINA and their laundering of IRANIAN OIL MONEY!
Read the thread below for the back story on how they went after Flynn.
What would have been exposed if @GenFlynn hadn't been impeded by corrupt FBI, DOJ and the Obama White house?
He'd have exposed CHINA and their laundering of IRANIAN OIL MONEY!
Read the thread below for the back story on how they went after Flynn.
1. As promised.
— \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 \U0001d7dc\U0001d7d8\u210d\U0001d556\U0001d552\U0001d555 \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 \u2b50\u2b50\u2b50 \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 (@40_head) December 2, 2020
A deep dig covering years of research. This is going to take you committing some real time to get through. What's THIS all about?
A coup. Murder. Treason. Laundering gold for Iran...I think it will blow your mind.
In this paper, we study vote choices of voters who are left-wing on economic issues and authoritarian/nationalist on cultural issues, especially immigration. For these voters, there is no often party combining positions in this way.
In the data from the Campaign Panel of the German Election Study 2017, many voters prefer higher social benefits and taxes and want to restrict immigration. @ches_data show that no party bundles issue positions in this way.
In the article, we show that many such “left-authoritarians” perceive the party they voted for to also hold a left-authoritarian position. Interestingly, this includes many AfD voters who report a perceived left-wing economic position of the party.
Our statistical models study the interplay between this (mis-)perceived congruence and issue importance, using an open-ended question on the most important political problem in Germany.
We find that (mis-)perceived congruence and issue importance interactively shape the left-authoritarian vote. Simply, perceived congruence matters more on an important issue—and issue salience matters most if voters accurately perceive incongruent party supply.
Vol 70 Apr | '#Vote choices of left-#authoritarians: Misperceived congruence and issue #salience' by @NilsSteiner and Sven Hillen is now available @ches_data @german_gles #Germany https://t.co/pmCoP5t7CL pic.twitter.com/Vl8rCahcZL
— Electoral Studies (@ElectoralStdies) January 30, 2021
In the data from the Campaign Panel of the German Election Study 2017, many voters prefer higher social benefits and taxes and want to restrict immigration. @ches_data show that no party bundles issue positions in this way.
In the article, we show that many such “left-authoritarians” perceive the party they voted for to also hold a left-authoritarian position. Interestingly, this includes many AfD voters who report a perceived left-wing economic position of the party.
Our statistical models study the interplay between this (mis-)perceived congruence and issue importance, using an open-ended question on the most important political problem in Germany.
We find that (mis-)perceived congruence and issue importance interactively shape the left-authoritarian vote. Simply, perceived congruence matters more on an important issue—and issue salience matters most if voters accurately perceive incongruent party supply.
